Broken Bat - Discussion Forum: Whats Wrong With My Team?

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Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date	Function

#40825	10/16/2016 2:00:35 pm
ESac Joined: 09/05/2016 Posts: 340 San Antonio Defenders V.14	This topic is for struggling managers that need help from talented, veteran managers. I'll leave this free for anyone to use.

#40831	10/16/2016 3:36:32 pm
Yuri84 Joined: 10/14/2014 Posts: 639 Apple Valley Raccoons IV.4	Well, for starters, your ballpark doesn't suit your team at all. It's a power friendly park, and while your guys can hit, only a couple of them can hit for power. Your pitchers aren't particularly reliable as well, so having such a ballpark is pretty much equal to asking your opponents: "hey, come hit some home runs!" Just look at your stats... It's too late to adjust the ballpark this season, but if you're keeping the core of your team then adjust it, make it larger and put higher walls at least. Updated Sunday, October 16 2016 @ 3:42:59 pm PDT

#40833	10/16/2016 4:17:06 pm
the gizmo Joined: 02/07/2013 Posts: 574 Inactive	Quick view shows your pitchers have given up about twice as many HRs as your team has hit and over half of them are by your four aging former stars. Their SI and stats have gotten dramatically worse in last two seasons even with demoting You have a few minor leaguers that need to be promoted to their appropriate level and a few that just need to be cut

#40876	10/18/2016 6:43:49 am
Squiddcatt Joined: 02/25/2016 Posts: 375 Inactive	stay in last and let me get better lol! But your roster could use some help

#40881	10/18/2016 8:42:00 am
amalric7 Joined: 01/20/2016 Posts: 2238 New York Lancers V.4	I'm not sure @ESac specifically said he was looking for advice, but as others have said his team could certainly use some! Lets start at the top:- Manager: need a new one. Hubbard has no scouting report and costs too much. If you want a manager who develops youth then Brandon is pretty solid, many of the excellent development managers have now gone. If its majors players you want coached then try Lopez. Roster:- Hitters: too many old guys. Johnson at C is still getting it done at 35, which is slightly unusual, but it may be time to move on (see AAA below). Your IF is absolutely fine. Lozano's poor start might just be small sample size, don't write him off. Swanson can be cut. There's no need however to be carrying NINE OF. Iglesias and Francis are basically the same player so I'd cut one. Quinones, Hale and Hall are all 1B types, no range for OF and carrying five 1B types (including Fusco and Heath) is too many so you may want to consider a move there. Gregory would have made an excellent SS and Ibarra an excellent C (Ibarra also doesn't have the range for OF), but given their ages I doubt either reaches their potential and probably not for another season or two, by which time they will be entering their decline phase - might be time to cut both, though they are younger than your vets. Pitchers: some real issues here. Beard and Newton are instant cuts, but the problem is that Harper and Kavanagh are too, while Reynolds and Walker look to have fallen off the cliff (age) despite their good profiles. Zuniga is only hanging on by his fingernails. There's some major work required here. Minors: simple fact - anyone with the "He may have learned all he can at this level of competition" label needs re-assigned to the appropriate level ASAP (in 95% of cases, 100% in AA and below), and that should be priority #1. As to the players themselves:- AAA: Schneider is an instant cut. Control "lacking" can be a death sentence in 13POT pitchers, so an 11POT has no chance. I'd put Werner into the starting lineup immediately, he has the bat and the arm, although longterm Hurst (see below) should be the better player. Harrison is yet another 1B type (borderline OF range) who might have made it at 3B but is probably too old to transition now. Bond and Hoover are - you guessed it! - 1B/OF types, again. Roth will be fine in the OF, good arm for CF/RF. AA: Hurst should be a quality C in time, perhaps as soon as next season. Thomas has the arm for C but has the fielding for 2B/SS, better fit there too. Guthrie is a great OBP guy but...1B again. Williams doesn't really have the fielding for 2B/SS but would do in a pinch, and would make a solid OF. Beck will be a quality OF bat but you can always train him up at 1B! Montes and Gallo are instant cuts, and I'd cut Cheek too. A: Kaneko will make a quality starter in time, he compares to Johnson on my team. Casillas is a borderline 3B (could use a better arm ideally) but will do given all your 1B candidates. Rookie: Kenny and Lee will be fine (remember to reassign) but Carranza and McCollum are instant cuts. Others have addressed your stadium issues. Your draft picks have been terrible though - draft for potential (very good over good over anything else) whenever possible, and by position need only as a last resort.

#40884	10/18/2016 9:47:33 am
GrizzlyDan Joined: 06/30/2016 Posts: 199 Atlanta Braves IV.2	I'll submit mine for review. My roster is almost full, so I might need some advice on how to create room for future draft picks. I only have one player projected to be promoted to the bigs this season, and he's really scuffling at AAA.

#40885	10/18/2016 10:25:42 am
FurySK Joined: 02/07/2015 Posts: 299 Inactive	Grizz Catchers - 13 hitting on current catcher should make him feast or famine during the year in VI, but is probably a placeholder for you. Dubois was really only a defensive replacement 2B/SS, and is a C only at this point with no hitting. Same with O'hara (train him in 2B or SS or something for later in games). Same with Solano and Newby. Newby will have the contact hitting but not the arm for catcher. Cut's here would be anyone that you aren't switching positions for, so you have a lot of room. 1B - Hawkins is capped on his hitting comment and would need both of the power pops he can receive in training to be capable of breaking into the .700 ops range regularly. He's really a placeholder for better hitting 1B with similar power. I think he'll average about .680-.700 in bad seasons and have random .800 ops seasons for you here and there if you hold him for a while. Hastings again has good defense, so he was not given training by former teams in positions where he could've used that more. Padilla has no real chance of being great because of his lack of hitting comment. and Gonzalez's Very good hitting + Prolific slugging means he's the guy to keep around as a 1B/DH for sure. that's your long term guy at one of those spots. Cut's here would be Padilla easily, questionable on the starter as you might find a better option in FA. 2B - Collazo looks like more of a DH when you can afford it (looks like you know that). Osorio is overachieving his hitting, if he levels out to a .200 average then it's a question of defense. Tapia is the same as collazo with currently less offensive talent. Agosto is not worth a roster spot. 3B - Mojica starts every game for you against righties, Whitney against lefties? Whitney isn't that good hitting wise, so you'll suffer in ops once you promote at too many positions if he starts more than 45-50 games in a season. Ashworth's range doesn't improve beyond a 7 (which is just a correctional move, not a development), so he's a catcher/1b or nothing type for me. His offense is just ok hitting wise with no power, which means catcher or bust. probably cut worthy, but up to you. SS - Farley has lowish defense for a SS, but offensively he's looking to be setup properly. Cespedes appears to be the defensive replacement Ss, as hit hitting won't grow beyond a 11-12 in the best of scenarios. could cut the defensive only SS, but i'd think of all your defensive replacement options he is the best at it so probably not. OF - Silva is a great short term option in the OF, i think getting Farley time is more important that him being in the DH spot though. Wilson is one of those whom plays above his report, so you can basically assume he's more like a 108-110 SI player at this point. Molina's severely overachieving his Bat control and plate discipline, and makes up for low power with speed (singles stretched into doubles). Wagner and Watson are good for what they are, so no problems on either. Min Jae On i cut, he's out of time to reach his cap for sure and he showed very marginal improvement in 750 AB's across two seasons (which is more than fair given his ops). I'd advise you to cut your losses there. Martin could be a good obp threat down the road, but his power needs to at least be a 6 or 7 or he'll struggle to hit it out of the infield. Cut de la rosa (arm + no hitting comment), Strickland (same), Suarez (same), and Boyle (same). 10-11 hitting is the average you are going to get, and you cant take advantage of speed without that. all you get out of it is defense, and while defense is nice it's not worth no offense in the OF. ~~~~ Pitching i cut anyone who has lacking or wild control (below average can and does work if a player is adequately skilled), and anyone who has a mediocre movement comment with no fastball comment. So with that being said ill let you decide on anyone 27+ and comment only on developing guys with the exception of one.... Dias, great comments, but not going to hit cap, and will be a 3 season and decline type of use for you. Don't know if he's worth the punishment. Either give him more opportunity than his current role or move on after this season. Ernst - cut worthy. 14 movement and 12 fastball is his absolute top end, and his CoS is also quite low. you can do better (Dias even is better to try then Ernst). Hammond - fine for D.VI, wild will catch up to him down the road, so as you move up replace. Wolfe - no power or movement, hard for him to get outs, thus his current career ERA. cut. Viciedo - Give him a starting job and give him innings immediately over one of your veterans that is underachieving. If his movement can grow to 17+ and his control to 9, then he'll easily be worth it and you'll thank me later. Barraza - on a good run performance wise, but his fastball hopefully will get closer to 10 before he's done. you can hold onto him. Yamamoto - won't be worth that much long term, just a placeholder. Velocity's cap is at 14, his si cap is at 94ish as a pitcher (it's specifically 95, but pitchers are weird), so he's only going to be capable of a set amount, and that'll be less useful as you move up divisions. Ishii - starting pitching with 11 potential doesn't work that well usually. relievers can make it work because they have usually 7-8 less stamina, which means that their end build has more pitching ratings than some 12 potential's with stamina. anywho, ishii doesn't have a fastball or movement comment, so cut worthy short or long term. in the minors Steele is the immediate cut, and Escobar would eventually fall into the same boat. Updated Tuesday, October 18 2016 @ 10:44:13 am PDT

#40887	10/18/2016 11:21:28 am
mikkoredsox Joined: 03/29/2015 Posts: 116 Inactive	Grizz, I might also add that even if your player is scuffling at AAA, no stock should be put into minor league statistics at all. They really don't have much relevance. SBs have been said to be the only indicator of performance, aka, can my fast guy steal? If by scuffling you mean not gaining SI, then that may be different. Updated Tuesday, October 18 2016 @ 11:21:54 am PDT

#40888	10/18/2016 1:06:37 pm
ESac Joined: 09/05/2016 Posts: 340 San Antonio Defenders V.14	Btw I just want to say that I didn't need help, that this was for other people that need help with their team, but thanks anyways for advice!

#40919	10/18/2016 9:04:48 pm
buffmckagan Joined: 12/22/2013 Posts: 651 Scranton Bears Legends	Rough start to the season and have been getting some PM advice, but I figure it would be nice to get some opinions. I am experienced, but there are some things I don't know about Broken Bat (how stadiums affect players, what each division of SI affects in terms of playing, etc.) I was one game out of relegation last year, and I would like to start getting ready to compete soon. I think my roster is really solid, just a little tweaking would probably be good.

#40920	10/18/2016 9:46:48 pm
FurySK Joined: 02/07/2015 Posts: 299 Inactive	Harder to comment on your team given how well off a lot of your guys are in skills. My two concerns if i were to take over your team right now is where am i going to get the top of the lineup players and the #8 and #9 guys to wrap the lineup around with out of the young group, and where am i going to get the needed strikeouts. Having run guys out with movement strengths and with velocity strengths, velocity seems way less affected by promotion strength. Only one of your pitchers looks to be on that pace of the youngest group, minors are not great in this regard either. You may want to hang the fishing line out there in waivers for a lower stamina 12 potential pitcher with the potential to get to 18+ velocity, or invest in some quick turn players by going early into the college draft next season. The hitting side of things look a little less rough, but your team lacks the great contact hitting guys that are destined for 17+ hitting.

#40941	10/19/2016 3:32:03 pm
GrizzlyDan Joined: 06/30/2016 Posts: 199 Atlanta Braves IV.2	FurySK: Way ahead of you on Newby. I hacve had him being trained at 2B since he unpacked his bags in Adairsville. I despair of finding AB's for Agosto since he can't hit much outside of Spring Training, but I don't have a Major League body to fill his roster spot yet either. I keep looking for acceptable FA's. Here's the thing about Ernst: His numbers look bad, but it just seems, at least when i first got him, that good things tended to happen with him on the hill. It's hard to put my finger on. When i find better pitching somewhere I'll let him go, but the dude somehow went 12-10 last season. Per your suggestion, Viciedo gets his first start against Hilton Head in about a half hour. I'll send you his line score.> I'm going to give Steele a chance. He is torching AA right now, he's got plenty of time to show me who he is. Most of the rest of your cuts are good, just not right now.

#40947	10/19/2016 4:21:51 pm
FurySK Joined: 02/07/2015 Posts: 299 Inactive	His line score is ok. His ability to get more of his potential SI to gain squeezed out before he has "not much room for improvement" is where you'll benefit . Then you can rotate him back into relief to hide his control again if you desire.

#40952	10/19/2016 6:08:27 pm
buffmckagan Joined: 12/22/2013 Posts: 651 Scranton Bears Legends	The hitting side of things look a little less rough, but your team lacks the great contact hitting guys that are destined for 17+ hitting. So basically, I have guys who should be hitting better than they are but are continually underperforming?

#40955	10/19/2016 7:04:37 pm
FurySK Joined: 02/07/2015 Posts: 299 Inactive	Nope. I was saying that in terms of having the hitting rating in the 18-20 range on young hitters, you have it almost all on the older hitters, which may make you less consistent with each passing season. This would be in comparison to the leading team in the Legends division. Looking at the 13-14 hitting rated players leaves them mostly in the .240's and .250's. They average roughly 9 guys at 14 or greater, and most of those teams have a few of their 14's in development that could put them at 16's. Again, you are more successful than me, but from a legends versus you inventory it appears that it is less favorable for the hitting rating in comparison.

#40958	10/19/2016 9:28:13 pm
buffmckagan Joined: 12/22/2013 Posts: 651 Scranton Bears Legends	"...but from a legends versus you inventory it appears that it is less favorable for the hitting rating in comparison." So basically I should try to dip in the college ranks to pick out better contact hitters and pitchers with high velocity? The second I totally get because I have a lot of guys who could start on other squads - and whom I would probably try to get rid of if trading was a thing (not trying to open that whole can of worms up, just in theory)

#40961	10/19/2016 11:58:17 pm
FurySK Joined: 02/07/2015 Posts: 299 Inactive	In the end, however you want to go about catching up there or overcoming that is up to you.

#41040	10/21/2016 2:47:24 pm
buffmckagan Joined: 12/22/2013 Posts: 651 Scranton Bears Legends	I don't get it - I have a lot of guys in my minors who could be "good" or "great" hitters. What's the issue? The fact they're not progressing well enough? Confused by your logic.

#41104	10/23/2016 3:18:39 pm
FurySK Joined: 02/07/2015 Posts: 299 Inactive	Speaking on just the hitting comment, not on generalizing the talent of a player. When legends guys have guys that are 17 and 20 on their hitting cap and you dont means you are going to finish on average lower in your average as a team, which is the only point i was making really. Hitting Caps - Minors Villalobos - 13 Dale - 20 Garcia - 15 Maddox - 13 Amato - 13 Beaver - 15 Espinoza - 15 Dabrowski - 13 Tyree - 20 Hudson - 13 Cruz - 15 Del Valle - 15 I left Barbieri out of this because it's really obvious why you have him, and it's not for offense. You have two guys who will hit for considerably high averages in the majors if they hit 19 or 20 hitting regardless of whether or not they play to that number, Tyree and Dale. but you have 2 great hitters, 0 very good, 5 good, and 5 that are no comment. Let's take your minors and compare to a top tier legends team. I'll take Birmingham or Two Plums most of the time on this one because Buffalo has called up most of their young talent recently. Birmingham - Minors Bechtel - 17 Saez - 13 Leblanc - 17 McFarland - 20 Rodriguez - 17 Rosa - 17 Serna - 17 Rosenthal - 13 Carroll - 17 Krieger - 15 Gregori - 13 Donahue - 15 Inventory - 1 great, 6 very good, 2 good, 3 no comment. He lacks the 2nd great hitter that you have, but his average rating amongst guys in for purposes other than defense is 15.92 hitting, so i'll call it 16. yours is exactly 15, so 1 level lower overall. Birmingham's majors is 14.75 amongst hitters 28 or younger, yours is 11.375. If i go to age 29 instead or full team, your margins are indeed closer, but you are still behind. Two plums majors is 13, minors is 14.70, so you are closer to him. I will warn that his majors will be ahead for quite some time given the players that brought him down were his A and R ball hitters. Hopefully this explanation helps more.

#41108	10/23/2016 3:44:40 pm
FurySK Joined: 02/07/2015 Posts: 299 Inactive	I should also probably clarify that i do not believe that hitting alone makes a great player either, but i look at it from a very specific perspective. 1) If a player has a high hitting rating, then it enable him to reach a .360 obp (my breakeven point) with less PD than he would otherwise need. Furthermore, it has a direct contribution to power, which cannot be enabled by the amount of walks a player has. It has a more secondary contribution to speed which is impacted by higher obp, in which hitting ratings play a part in. However, a high hitting player does not indicate the ability to breakeven at a .360 obp easily as many players in D.VI are built as 16/7/7/17/13 types, and suffer to break that mark. 2) If a player has a lower hitting rating (13 or less), then they are still capable of getting on base and if they have higher than normal speed it is beneficial to the team offensively in a different avenue. A high PD and a high hitting can contribute to being on base. One way would be to increase their OBP from a .230-.260 average by 90 to 100 points, allowing for an average mark of probably .340 obp. What they then can accomplish with a high bat control is a higher than average balls in play per season. Such as force outs that cause other base runners to lose their opportunity to run the base, or errors in which everyone is safe. In such a case, their base running is likely to be felt at closer to a .360-.370 clip even if their on base is not reflected. If you need a mental picture, think of Yadier Molina running the bases, and getting forced off of 2nd base on a potential double play. If Billy hamilton hit into that potential double play and beats the throw to first, then all of a sudden he has replaced Yadi's spot at the cost of an out, but is significantly more likely to go first to third or to steal second base. Additionally, if billy hamilton hit a ball for an out rather than striking out, then he might beat out the throw. In the game itself, if he hits it to your 3B that has 10 fielding rating instead of striking out, then perhaps it creates a percentage chance of an error instead. In both cases, you need 3 ratings to be good for the generation of offensive opportunities with a runner on 2nd or further to occur. the first case, you need batting average, BC or PD, and power to get to second regularly. In the second case, you need BC, PD, and Speed. the second is significantly harder to locate because neither BC or PD actually have a scouting comment. Thus the tendency in the game and for me right now is to go with what i can scout for young talent, and hope to land what i see in waivers. All this being said, i've not stayed on a team and been interested in this game long enough to test whether circumstance 1 and 2 both work, so i go mostly for what i see work on the bigger clubs. If a team is winning in legends, then I believe it is wise to consider their approach prior to my own, thus i recommended you look at where you can improve to match their level of talent. Updated Sunday, October 23 2016 @ 3:47:09 pm PDT

#41109	10/23/2016 3:51:18 pm
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9603 Haverhill Halflings III.1	You can project players to find out approximately where their BC and PD will end up. They do need a couple years of minors play first, but then you just need to look at their development graphs to get a good idea of where their BC and PD will end up. Definitely don't look at Hitting in a vacuum. Especially given the interplay between Hitting and BC. And low PD guys are going to have very low OBPs because they strike out all the time. Its all about trades. I weight Hitting very high myself, just don't look at it in a vacuum.

#41110	10/23/2016 3:52:34 pm
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9603 Haverhill Halflings III.1	Also, some guys do well regardless of their ratings, while some guys suck even if they do have high Hitting and BC ratings...

#41115	10/23/2016 4:16:16 pm
FurySK Joined: 02/07/2015 Posts: 299 Inactive	I draft hitting in a vacuum because i have no choice. I've voiced this complaint a few times so i won't get on my high horse again, but theres only one of these two builds that you can semi-accurately get out of the draft, whereas the other is a 100% crap shoot. As far as very good hitters never panning out, it's because i think this game operates at a +/- 5 rating at absolute most. If that's the case, then a player that is at a 20 hitting can at worst perform at as if they were a 15 hitting player, whereas a 17 can perform like a 12. If it's more, then indeed any player can be awful, but i don't know that i've seen too many 19's and 20's fully tank their batting average. I also posted a follow up where i tried to point out that hitting was not necessarily everything to me. However, only a few big-time players in legends have low hitting and great skills elsewhere. Ben Mann is one. Santiago Fossas maybe at 14 hitting could be considered one. Other guys that have low hitting have a season here or there but are otherwise a .600-.675 ops type of hitter, or are guys with defensive skills > 42 combined. Updated Sunday, October 23 2016 @ 4:17:07 pm PDT

#41116	10/23/2016 4:19:30 pm
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9603 Haverhill Halflings III.1	Evaluating a player in your minors system is entirely different than drafting. I would agree with you on drafting good hitters since you don't have data on BC or PD (which makes the game more realistic and enjoyable). But once they are on your team, you should be watching the whole package.

#41119	10/23/2016 5:08:41 pm
MukilteoMike Joined: 08/09/2014 Posts: 3294 Inactive	Fury, a "great" hitter can often be miserable. Take my guy, Pascual. He's 19-12-17-14-17 and has a career batting average against righties of .222. His skills suggest he should be an All Star, but I have to sit him against righties because he's awful. http://brokenbat.org/player/88794

#41120	10/23/2016 5:11:37 pm
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9603 Haverhill Halflings III.1	i think this game operates at a +/- 5 rating at absolute most No, its 20% of the actual skill (which would be less then 3 points for a 14), and it becomes more accurate over time. We don't know if it reaches 100% accuracy, but by the time a guy like Izquierdo has been on my team for 9 years I would suspect the most he could be off by is 1 or 2 points. He is probably a 16 for Hitting if he is over rated. Updated Sunday, October 23 2016 @ 5:13:11 pm PDT

#41121	10/23/2016 5:18:37 pm
FurySK Joined: 02/07/2015 Posts: 299 Inactive	Actually he performs about as i would expect a 19 hitter to perform if he was overstated in terms of skill by the readout. He is a .250 hitter overall, how he gets there is a bit unique though. So i may cast doubt on my projections in the sense that they don't perform as a generic +5/-5 sort of sliding scale, but perhaps instead a +/- based on skills versus lefties and righties. It is also worth noting that he was at 15 hitting in 2026, and is now at 19. He's doing very well this season against both (though i don't know how many AB's he's had versus righties as i assume you're going with him 100% of the lefties matchups and he just injury fills the righties?). He'd also increase his power production if you didn't have walls that high too, but probably something you already calculate into performances.

#41122	10/23/2016 5:21:26 pm
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9603 Haverhill Halflings III.1	Right/Lefty splits are most definitely a hidden trait. Some guys just don't do well on a certain side. My guy doesn't do well on either side...

#41124	10/23/2016 6:14:21 pm
FurySK Joined: 02/07/2015 Posts: 299 Inactive	So it's quite possible that the worst of the worst just go negative on both sides of the plate, whereas the best might go and do great against both. That would make a bit more sense and probably be closer to real. I'm not sure if I agree to the scouting becoming more accurate over time though. I think you can discern whether or not a player is an overachiever or underachiever, but i've only seen the drops in arm/range (or improvements), and i rarely see super early drops on hitters and pitchers in core skills until 29 or 30 by 1. If it's 20%, then it's even more favorable to a 19 or 20 hitter than my beliefs/views.

#41129	10/23/2016 7:33:36 pm
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9603 Haverhill Halflings III.1	From the manual: So are there skill values displayed for each player accurate? Just as in real baseball, where there is some uncertainty about a player's talent level, in Broken Bat there is also built-in uncertainty in displayed skill levels. The visible skill values for each player are an approximation of his current actual skill level and may deviate by up to 20% from it true value for some skills. Additionally, just like in real baseball, as a player plays more games, his displayed skill value will approach his true current skill level. Note, this may result in a player's displayed skill level actually dropping, even though he is receiving regular training and playing time. His skill value is not actually dropping, but because his actual skill level is better known now, a more accurate and lower value is now displayed.

#41130	10/23/2016 7:35:13 pm
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9603 Haverhill Halflings III.1	You don't see drops in most of the other ratings because they are improving at the same time as they are sharpening. A newly drafted player with 20 hitting (Asian Posting System?) could be as low as 16. But after he has been on your team for 7-8 years I doubt he could be any lower than 18. For players with less skill, the delta is even smaller. A newly drafted player with 10 hitting could be no worse than 8 (or more precisely 7.6) in reality. Updated Sunday, October 23 2016 @ 7:53:57 pm PDT

#41131	10/23/2016 7:51:51 pm
MukilteoMike Joined: 08/09/2014 Posts: 3294 Inactive	While the manual claims the reported values become more accurate over time, I think that's pure bunk. Guys who suck would lose SI like crazy, but they don't, and guys who are awesome should gain SI. While it doesn't say it, I think it's actually only referring to speed, range and arm. At times those move in the correct direction to their true skill.

#41132	10/23/2016 7:56:28 pm
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9603 Haverhill Halflings III.1	I just had a guy lose a point in range. It took 8 seasons to show up. You are suggesting that you have players that are so bad, they would take longer than 8 seasons to "pop" in a skill. Both of these are happening at a very slow rate of progression. I think the misnomer "pop" confuses a lot of people. Training happens at a faster rate then scout sharpening, so we never see loses in skills that are trainable. Updated Sunday, October 23 2016 @ 7:58:45 pm PDT

#41133	10/23/2016 8:00:38 pm
FurySK Joined: 02/07/2015 Posts: 299 Inactive	If it's a 6-8 season progression to accuracy, then the accuracy bit is pretty much moot. I tend to agree with mike that it appears defense is the most likely area to change over time towards a correct value, and that it's too hit or miss for players in terms of performance to be observable if they do improve over that course of time (or regress). This is a good discussion though, i am starting to revisit a few areas as far as what i believe.

#41134	10/23/2016 8:06:46 pm
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9603 Haverhill Halflings III.1	It can be up to 8 depending on how far away from .5 they are. If you require proof, here it is. I assume all skills sharpen, but if you are training up 1 point or more over an 8 season period, it is going to be masked by the training. Most skills are only going to be off by a point or two (how often have you seen range or arm drop 2 points).

#41135	10/23/2016 8:44:37 pm
MukilteoMike Joined: 08/09/2014 Posts: 3294 Inactive	We tend to think of the negative. As Rock said, training and experience should be greater than scouting clarifications that would move down. So think about it the other direction--skills that are under scouted and should accordingly go up. The manual says the skills could be off by 20%, which means as much as four. If the skills became quantified more accurately throughout time, we should see lots and lots of guys who end up with overall SI out of their projected potential. There are a few instances where this happens, but it's very rare and I've never seen it by more than a point or two. Maybe they do move towards their true value. If they do, it happens so slowly that it doesn't really help at all.

#41136	10/23/2016 8:55:02 pm
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9603 Haverhill Halflings III.1	We do see some guys go over their max potential, but I'm not sure that is the same anyhow. There is nothing saying that a guys scouting report or max POT is "unsharp", just the current actual ratings. Let's take a guy with a "very good hitter" report. At 22 his ratings may say he currently has 10 hitting, while in reality he has 12. As he gradually gains 4 points through training/experience, his scouting also sharpens by one point. So by the time his is 25 he has 15 hitting. We think, "oh he trained well", but in reality he only trained 4 points, while sharpening +1 in hitting (initially off by 2). No one will see that guy gain that extra point because it happens gradually just like training. He just popped 5 times in the course of 3 season instead of 4. It helps create more variety and unpredictability in growth patterns. That guy everyone says is a "slow" developer might be developing fine, he is just sharping to his true skills at the same time. Plus, "doesn't help at all": so you would rather your ratings were off by 20% instead of 10% when your player is 27? Seems to me that increased accuracy is a lot of help. Updated Sunday, October 23 2016 @ 9:00:36 pm PDT

#41139	10/23/2016 11:28:54 pm
MukilteoMike Joined: 08/09/2014 Posts: 3294 Inactive	That's all well and good, but you made up the numbers. You have no idea how much the accuracy improves over time. Explain why some guys over-perform their skills by a wide margin and others stink up the joint. If skills are accurately depicted for veterans, that shouldn't happen. Seeing a players skills isn't enough, you have to consider their history/stats. Why? Probably because their skills don't necessarily match their quoted values.

#41141	10/24/2016 1:50:36 am
FurySK Joined: 02/07/2015 Posts: 299 Inactive	A couple of notes here 1) Haverhill's minors is basically the same as i would set it up, with great and very good's in hitting on just about every developing player. So while we agree that hitting is not the only component of a good player, i'd suggest that if anything it points to a general trend in ideas. 2) I don't really see a lot of logic behind the proposed way that development works by haverhill. It does not explain why certain players underachieve (and never make it back down in skill reductions over time outside of defense). Furthermore, players that get full time in the majors tend to get more development, so even if we wanted to prove it it's very much impossible to get a fully accurate supporting or refuting set of data to beat him up on his hypothesis. 3) This game feels like it has a bit of randomness to players going on prolonged cold and warm spells. So i'm not even sure i agree with mike's assessment of his own player. Right now he seems red hot on both sides of the plate, and if he went ahead and played him full time i'd think that it's entirely possible that he hasn't shown his ability to hit against righties. He might be .250 against righties and .310 against lefties. He might not. But you won't really know if experience has any effect until it is tried again. ~~~~~ http://brokenbat.org/team/562 that was the original discussion before we diverted. If you don't think his hitting is what is holding him back amongst his younger players, try and find something else that makes sense. In my opinion, hitting for more contact is the biggest offensive concern i have, even above PD. On the pitching side, not enough pitchers with more than 14 velocity, and equally not enough control on pitchers with just ok stuff to make it all work.

#41142	10/24/2016 4:44:49 am
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9603 Haverhill Halflings III.1	Players have other hidden traits which effect performance. I quoted the manual and gave you an example of how it would work. If you guys want to be stubborn and say, "no the manual is wrong because you made up numbers in your example", then so be it. You're only hurting yourselves with your ignorance.

#41153	10/24/2016 12:09:33 pm
FurySK Joined: 02/07/2015 Posts: 299 Inactive	The bigger problem is even if you are right, what does it change about the acquisition of players in the draft or in waivers? In waivers, the guys that have 3 great tools will get 40 to 50 claims, and you win maybe one of those every three or four seasons if you put in for enough of them. You're stuck taking the Great/Prolific contact/power comments a lot of the time because you figure that those players can eventually be better than those at decent power good hitting if they reach their full maturity. There isn't enough of an answer from minors ratings, so you won't really know what you've got until age 24-26 (whenever you bring said player up), and even then you might not know for the first year or so depending on whether the player starts hot or cold. It's still just a question to me of where do you take your chances. whether or not you are 100% right like you feel you are or if it's a half truth based on a fact thats misinterpreted is something I won't know or won't really be able to control the outcome for. edit: i still do think you were accurate on the 20% part, so i've readjusted thinking there! Updated Monday, October 24 2016 @ 12:19:14 pm PDT

#41155	10/24/2016 12:46:39 pm
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9603 Haverhill Halflings III.1	I was simply clarifying how it works since you were making assumptions to the contrary. One thing I would warn about just going after tools: a player only has so much SI to go around. If you take a great defensive SS with very good hitting and prolific slugging, then you know his BD and PD are going to be horrible. Even if it is highly inaccurate you can still do an estimation for newly drafted players to determine what they will look like. And after just a couple season, you will know if their BC is flat lined. You make the assumption that you can't tell anything about BC and PD, but that is incorrect. If you know approximately what the other values are, you simply subtract that away from his potential SI. That gives you a pretty good view of what his BC and PD combined will be even before you get a single data point. I would rather have a great defensive SS with good hitting and good BC, than a great defensive SS with good hitting, prolific slugging, and garbage BC/PD. You can tell a LOT about guys on the waivers if you spend a few minutes to consider their development graphs. Also the statistical minors info shows a lot more valuable information than most people realize. Updated Monday, October 24 2016 @ 12:49:48 pm PDT

#41156	10/24/2016 12:58:31 pm
FurySK Joined: 02/07/2015 Posts: 299 Inactive	I never made any assumptions on PD or BC being something completely out of my control once they hit waivers. I merely said that it's much easier to gamble on a rating that has a fairly defined area that they will fall into over one that tends not to be as well defined. There are reasons that players can and will fall short of those windows. I'm sure i can do the math of a 103 SI cap player that has 12 velocity and 14 movement and 12 stamina caps and 18 SI worth of defense (36 skills total) and find the likely endpoint of the CoS and Control without comments. But just like bat control, Change of Speeds by itself doesn't really have that impact for me. I've had only small success with huge CoS players, and i've had almost zero success on the only high BC zero comment hitter i had in greensville. So looking for those alone i feel is more dangerous than looking for hitting alone. What you've outlined is why i tend to look for 13 potential and 14 potential players for 3B and SS and to a lesser degree 2B. I need more defensive attributes in those positions than i might in others.

#41158	10/24/2016 2:04:34 pm
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9603 Haverhill Halflings III.1	Yeah, those are the two most difficult positions for me to fill as well. My Fastball pitchers do horrible (lots of HRA), so I prefer CoS to Velocity. This guy seems to be doing pretty good for a guy with low(er) hitting and high BC. But this guy is bad at everything despite high Hitting. I've had a lot of bad luck with guys who have low BC, so I rate BC pretty high.

#41541	11/06/2016 8:59:27 am
ESac Joined: 09/05/2016 Posts: 340 San Antonio Defenders V.14	Just keeping this one active. Don't need help.

#42012	11/20/2016 2:58:25 pm
ESac Joined: 09/05/2016 Posts: 340 San Antonio Defenders V.14	^

#42013	11/20/2016 3:05:04 pm
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9603 Haverhill Halflings III.1	That's not really necessary. People will just make a new thread when they want help with their team.

#52801	09/02/2017 10:42:01 am
ESac Joined: 09/05/2016 Posts: 340 San Antonio Defenders V.14	ok