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FurySK
Joined: 02/07/2015
Posts: 299

Inactive

Broken Bat Baseball
A couple of notes here

1) Haverhill's minors is basically the same as i would set it up, with great and very good's in hitting on just about every developing player. So while we agree that hitting is not the only component of a good player, i'd suggest that if anything it points to a general trend in ideas.

2) I don't really see a lot of logic behind the proposed way that development works by haverhill. It does not explain why certain players underachieve (and never make it back down in skill reductions over time outside of defense). Furthermore, players that get full time in the majors tend to get more development, so even if we wanted to prove it it's very much impossible to get a fully accurate supporting or refuting set of data to beat him up on his hypothesis.

3) This game feels like it has a bit of randomness to players going on prolonged cold and warm spells. So i'm not even sure i agree with mike's assessment of his own player. Right now he seems red hot on both sides of the plate, and if he went ahead and played him full time i'd think that it's entirely possible that he hasn't shown his ability to hit against righties. He might be .250 against righties and .310 against lefties. He might not. But you won't really know if experience has any effect until it is tried again.

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http://brokenbat.org/team/562

that was the original discussion before we diverted. If you don't think his hitting is what is holding him back amongst his younger players, try and find something else that makes sense. In my opinion, hitting for more contact is the biggest offensive concern i have, even above PD. On the pitching side, not enough pitchers with more than 14 velocity, and equally not enough control on pitchers with just ok stuff to make it all work.
Rock777
Joined: 09/21/2014
Posts: 9569

Haverhill Halflings
III.1

Broken Bat Baseball
Players have other hidden traits which effect performance.

I quoted the manual and gave you an example of how it would work. If you guys want to be stubborn and say, "no the manual is wrong because you made up numbers in your example", then so be it. You're only hurting yourselves with your ignorance.
FurySK
Joined: 02/07/2015
Posts: 299

Inactive

Broken Bat Baseball
The bigger problem is even if you are right, what does it change about the acquisition of players in the draft or in waivers? In waivers, the guys that have 3 great tools will get 40 to 50 claims, and you win maybe one of those every three or four seasons if you put in for enough of them. You're stuck taking the Great/Prolific contact/power comments a lot of the time because you figure that those players can eventually be better than those at decent power good hitting if they reach their full maturity. There isn't enough of an answer from minors ratings, so you won't really know what you've got until age 24-26 (whenever you bring said player up), and even then you might not know for the first year or so depending on whether the player starts hot or cold.

It's still just a question to me of where do you take your chances. whether or not you are 100% right like you feel you are or if it's a half truth based on a fact thats misinterpreted is something I won't know or won't really be able to control the outcome for.

edit: i still do think you were accurate on the 20% part, so i've readjusted thinking there!

Updated Monday, October 24 2016 @ 12:19:14 pm PDT
Rock777
Joined: 09/21/2014
Posts: 9569

Haverhill Halflings
III.1

Broken Bat Baseball
I was simply clarifying how it works since you were making assumptions to the contrary. One thing I would warn about just going after tools: a player only has so much SI to go around. If you take a great defensive SS with very good hitting and prolific slugging, then you know his BD and PD are going to be horrible. Even if it is highly inaccurate you can still do an estimation for newly drafted players to determine what they will look like. And after just a couple season, you will know if their BC is flat lined. You make the assumption that you can't tell anything about BC and PD, but that is incorrect. If you know approximately what the other values are, you simply subtract that away from his potential SI. That gives you a pretty good view of what his BC and PD combined will be even before you get a single data point.

I would rather have a great defensive SS with good hitting and good BC, than a great defensive SS with good hitting, prolific slugging, and garbage BC/PD. You can tell a LOT about guys on the waivers if you spend a few minutes to consider their development graphs. Also the statistical minors info shows a lot more valuable information than most people realize.

Updated Monday, October 24 2016 @ 12:49:48 pm PDT
FurySK
Joined: 02/07/2015
Posts: 299

Inactive

Broken Bat Baseball
I never made any assumptions on PD or BC being something completely out of my control once they hit waivers. I merely said that it's much easier to gamble on a rating that has a fairly defined area that they will fall into over one that tends not to be as well defined. There are reasons that players can and will fall short of those windows.

I'm sure i can do the math of a 103 SI cap player that has 12 velocity and 14 movement and 12 stamina caps and 18 SI worth of defense (36 skills total) and find the likely endpoint of the CoS and Control without comments. But just like bat control, Change of Speeds by itself doesn't really have that impact for me. I've had only small success with huge CoS players, and i've had almost zero success on the only high BC zero comment hitter i had in greensville. So looking for those alone i feel is more dangerous than looking for hitting alone.

What you've outlined is why i tend to look for 13 potential and 14 potential players for 3B and SS and to a lesser degree 2B. I need more defensive attributes in those positions than i might in others.
Rock777
Joined: 09/21/2014
Posts: 9569

Haverhill Halflings
III.1

Broken Bat Baseball
Yeah, those are the two most difficult positions for me to fill as well. My Fastball pitchers do horrible (lots of HRA), so I prefer CoS to Velocity.

This guy seems to be doing pretty good for a guy with low(er) hitting and high BC.

But this guy is bad at everything despite high Hitting.

I've had a lot of bad luck with guys who have low BC, so I rate BC pretty high.
ESac
Joined: 09/05/2016
Posts: 340

San Antonio Defenders
IV.7

Broken Bat Baseball
Just keeping this one active. Don't need help.
ESac
Joined: 09/05/2016
Posts: 340

San Antonio Defenders
IV.7

Broken Bat Baseball
^
Rock777
Joined: 09/21/2014
Posts: 9569

Haverhill Halflings
III.1

Broken Bat Baseball
That's not really necessary. People will just make a new thread when they want help with their team.
ESac
Joined: 09/05/2016
Posts: 340

San Antonio Defenders
IV.7

Broken Bat Baseball
ok


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