Game Date: Mar 30th, 2067
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Forum >> Help >> Rating and Fan Mood 
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| Post ID | Date & Time | Game Date | Function |
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| #882 | 06/11/2012 11:29:39 am | ||
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afrosamurai Joined: 06/06/2012 Posts: 0 Inactive 
| Just wondering if there's a scale somewhere that I've missed showing where these numbers stand in a relative way. Thanks |
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| #883 | 06/11/2012 11:43:00 am | ||
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admin Joined: 01/27/2010 Posts: 5019 Administrator 
| Every team started with a 100 rating and has moved up or down from that based on wins and loses. I guess you can say 100 is the average. You can see the total rankings here. Rankings used to be used to determine cup inclusion, but now everyone is included. Fan mood is kind of the same thing. If you’re above 100, your fans are generally happy. Below 100, you fans are angry or losing interest. Steve |
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| #884 | 06/11/2012 6:16:38 pm | ||
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afrosamurai Joined: 06/06/2012 Posts: 0 Inactive
| Great thanks! | ||
| #885 | 06/11/2012 8:38:01 pm | ||
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Minnie Miñoso Joined: 06/05/2012 Posts: 42 Inactive
| 482 Naples Pirates V.13 69 91 .431 -25 1 82.02 I'm so proud. This is, after all, not rock bottom. Next season will be my first full one and I'm determined to crack the top 450! |
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| #57149 | 02/21/2018 1:01:41 pm | Jan 29th, 2035 | |
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Hayseed Joined: 02/20/2018 Posts: 296 Hood River Hawks Legends 
| Is Fan Mood only determined by winning or are there other things like long tenure of top players or manager that should be taken into account? I imagine moving to another city would piss folks off. | ||
| #73053 | 04/22/2020 3:58:57 pm | Apr 27th, 2045 | |
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Ken_Kennilworth Joined: 11/26/2019 Posts: 417 Charleston Hawks Legends 
| Re: The calculation of Fan Mood Way back on 6/11/2012 the Admin made this post about ratings and fan mood in this thread: Every team started with a 100 rating and has moved up or down from that based on wins and loses. I guess you can say 100 is the average. You can see the total rankings here. Rankings used to be used to determine cup inclusion, but now everyone is included. Fan mood is kind of the same thing. If you’re above 100, your fans are generally happy. Below 100, you fans are angry or losing interest. Steve I am led to believe by the above that Fan Mood changes are zero sum, meaning the team winning a game gains an amount equal to the reduction experienced by the team losing the game. If so, the average fan mood for all team should stay at 100. Is that correct, or are there other factors involved in calculating Fan Mood; factors I can influence? Because as of 4/21/2020 I believe the average Fan Mood for all 756 is not 100. No, it is 99.5 per my spreadsheet work. I copied the Rankings page containing all 756 teams into my spreadsheet. Then added up the Fan Mood column and calculated an average. At first I thought it was a copying mistake or just the result of rounding by BrokenBat. Well, I think I eliminated copying mistake by running a line by line cumulative total...I never got a line total that was less than or equal to the line above—thus every cell contained a valid fan mood number. And none of the Fan Mood numbers was in the “impossible range”. As for rounding, the report by BrokenBat gives Fan Mood with 2 decimal point precision. If Fan Mood is to have a 100 average, the total of Fan Mood scores for all teams should sum to 75,600. But per my spreadsheet, all Fan Moods summed to 75,234.04. That 365.96 points short. 75,234.04 Fan points when divided by 756 teams yields an average of 99.5159...not 100. That is too big a shortfall from 100 to be attributed to rounding when Fan Mood is reported to two decimal places—the most any rounding error could be would by .01 per team to 7.56 total Fan Mood points, not the 365.96 point difference noted above. So I can't say rounding causes the difference. Is the difference due to corrupted data? It seems plausible that sometime in the last 10 years the data may have gotten corrupted, and efforts to correct may not have brought the average Fan Mood back to 100 per team. So was that it, or are there other reasons the average is not 100? Updated Wednesday, April 22 2020 @ 4:02:01 pm PDT |
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| #73059 | 04/22/2020 7:15:25 pm | Apr 29th, 2045 | |
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hurstdm Joined: 01/18/2017 Posts: 579 Murfreesboro Moo Cows IV.2 
| Fascinating number crunching. Why would the average have to be exactly 100.00? Why couldn't it just "approach" 100? | ||
| #73063 | 04/23/2020 6:18:06 am | Apr 29th, 2045 | |
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Ken_Kennilworth Joined: 11/26/2019 Posts: 417 Charleston Hawks Legends
| approach 100 -- it would be good if it was. That would mean Fan Mood is not zero sum and implies regarding fan mood : being competitive in games while losing is less costly than being blown out; winning awards and championships earn a bonus; press releases and forum posts could help; there are penalties for ownership change, bankruptcy or star player cuts. As you might guess, I am being a BrokenBat detective here by trying to solve the mystery of Fan Mood -- the ultimate goal is to perform better in the game |
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| #73080 | 04/23/2020 5:29:20 pm | May 3rd, 2045 | |
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Ken_Kennilworth Joined: 11/26/2019 Posts: 417 Charleston Hawks Legends
| Here some more information about Ratings and how they work based on some crunching I did tonight. Ratings are zero-sum (Fan Mood is not, but that is for another thread). When two teams play, after the game is over, the losing team has its rating reduced by 1%, while an equal number of rating points is added to the winning teams rating. For example. Team A with a rating of 120 plays Team B that has a rating of 110. Team A loses. Team A has its rating reduced by 1.2 points (1% of 120) down to 118.8 Team B has its rating increase by 1.2 points up to 111.2 from 110. The net change for the two teams is zero-sum! So it's always the losing team giving points to the winning team. I discovered this my recording the Rating and Fan Mood points before and after each game played tonight in my division. I then calculated the change in rating points, and after a minute or two of puzzling, I saw the change described happened after all 10 games. I would urge others to try repeating my work to see if they get the same results and then add their findings to this thread--no need to test as many games as i, even just one game would help validate or refute this finding. Updated Friday, April 24 2020 @ 1:13:05 am PDT |
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| #73139 | 04/25/2020 10:01:38 pm | May 10th, 2045 | |
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Ken_Kennilworth Joined: 11/26/2019 Posts: 417 Charleston Hawks Legends
| Fan Mood, for league games, changes for wins and losses only it seems. It doesn't matter if you win by 1 run or 20, you get the same increase. And it doesn't matter if you beat the first place team in you league or the bottom dweller. (Thus, there is no accounting for a good loss, a close loss to a good team). The increase/decrease for league games depends only on your Fan Mood at the start of a game. If the mood is 100, you will gain 2 if you win, or lose 2 points if you lose...its the inflection point. At Fan Mood of 125 (25 points above 100) you will gain 1.5 points if you win...at Mood of 75 (25 points below 100) you will be deducted 1.5 points if you lose. If you lose at 125 points, you will have 2.5 points deducted, while if you win at 75 points, you will gain 2.5 points. Symmetry around 100. The farther above 100, the less gain a win gives, but the more deduction for a loss...the reverse is true for below 100. I learned this by downloading the Ratings page into a spreadsheet for three consecutive league dates and then analyzing the game to game changes in Fan Moods for every one of the 756 teams. This gave me over 1500 data pairs sets. From there it becomes very easy to see there is a linear relationship between Fan Mood increase and Fan Mood prior to increase, and there was no bonus points for beating a good team or penalty for losing to a poor one... So now I have a chart that can give me a good idea the increase/decrease to expect if you win/lose when you Fan Mood before a league game is anywhere from 20 up to 150. My chart is only for league games. I suspect CUP games result at least twice as much as league games...I will be looking at that next CUP play. Don't know yet if there is a difference for Group Cup play vs Elimination play. And of course, league championship games are probably even more impactful to fan mood (4 times as much?) For Fan Mood here is no ELO based system as I suspected. Updated Saturday, April 25 2020 @ 10:10:28 pm PDT |
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| #73140 | 04/25/2020 11:42:47 pm | May 10th, 2045 | |
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Ken_Kennilworth Joined: 11/26/2019 Posts: 417 Charleston Hawks Legends
| Here is a forumla that will calculate the change in your Fan Mood if you win a league game Change in Fan Mood = 4*(200-Fan Mood Before Game)/200 If you lose a league game Change in Fan Mood = (-4 * Fan Mood Before Game )/200 After calculating the change, update per following Fan Mood After = Fan Mood Before + Change in Fan Mood ; duh! Fan Mood ranges from a possible 0 to 200, that's why 200 in the formula...the absolute value of the sum of change when a win plus change of a loss is always 4...that why multiply by 4. This was per my review and analysis of the my downloaded data. The Rating page rounds to 2 decimals, the formula will go several decimals beyond but should give the same result as the page when the formula's figure is also rounded. So I believe I solved the mystery of Fan Mood changes for league games. Please try repeating my analysis and/or applying the formula to your games. And let us know if you find the analysis / formula works or not. Updated Sunday, April 26 2020 @ 6:00:07 am PDT |
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| #73141 | 04/26/2020 1:15:22 am | May 10th, 2045 | |
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MukilteoMike Joined: 08/09/2014 Posts: 3294 Inactive
| Nice work. I wonder why in the world Steve didn't use the same method for both rating and mood. If it's good for one, isn't it fine for the other? While this isn't a zero sum, it works out to very nearly the same. | ||
| #73143 | 04/26/2020 5:50:33 am | May 10th, 2045 | |
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Ken_Kennilworth Joined: 11/26/2019 Posts: 417 Charleston Hawks Legends
| Thank you. Why Rankings in the game? I don't know either but it must have some purpose; why spend time and computer resource to develop something merely ornamental? My goal in all this work is to have a formula/method to predict attendance. All I know about that right now is fan mood (home and visitor?) and weather influence attendance, perhaps ratings are involved as well. But now with the formula I can work backwards from the present to calculate fan mood for past games for both my team and opponents. And the attendance figures already reported on the schedule page --so some correlation analysis/testing can begin. Additionally, we will learn the relative importance of CUP games...I will confess that in my first CUP season I played my subs for most games because I wanted to avoid injury to my regulars--looking back it probably was harmful to my attendance/finances. |
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| #73144 | 04/26/2020 10:19:37 am | May 10th, 2045 | |
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Ken_Kennilworth Joined: 11/26/2019 Posts: 417 Charleston Hawks Legends
| Sorry to take over this thread, but here is another piece of the Fan Mood puzzle. This time for CUP game pool play. Cup Pool Play games make 1.5 times the change that League play games do. Otherwise, all is the same. Thus, take the same league play formula and multiply the result by 1.5 Here is a forumla that will calculate the change in your Fan Mood if you win a CUP game Change in Fan Mood = 1.5 * (4*(200-Fan Mood Before Game)/200) If you lose a Cup Pool Play game Change in Fan Mood = 1.5 * ((-4 * Fan Mood Before Game )/200) again, if you try this calculation please share your results ***update***first round of Cup Knockout Game uses the same forumla as Cup Pool Games...just confirmed by capturing before and after Fan Mood numbers for Allen v Huntington, recalculated change per formula and got a result that agreed with Fan Mood reported by Broken Bat Updated Friday, May 1 2020 @ 2:30:05 pm PDT |
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| #73147 | 04/26/2020 2:27:55 pm | May 10th, 2045 | |
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MukilteoMike Joined: 08/09/2014 Posts: 3294 Inactive
| I predict that playoff games ramp up the multiplier to 2.5 or maybe even more. And that is terrible! It penalizes the playoff loser ridiculously. Winning the division should never hurt your mood, but it can destroy it. I stand by my method of correcting this travesty and am interested to see what the actual multiplier is. Again, great work, Ken. |
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| #73148 | 04/26/2020 2:48:09 pm | May 10th, 2045 | |
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Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9742 Haverhill Halflings II.1 
| Why Rankings in the game? Same reason there is a score in baseball. To see who the best is. |
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| #73150 | 04/26/2020 3:45:39 pm | May 11th, 2045 | |
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Hayseed Joined: 02/20/2018 Posts: 296 Hood River Hawks Legends
| ^^ again I agree with MM | ||
| #73929 | 05/25/2020 4:45:39 pm | Aug 31st, 2045 | |
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Ken_Kennilworth Joined: 11/26/2019 Posts: 417 Charleston Hawks Legends
| 2045 Cup completed the cup championship game changes fan mood the same as any other cup game--that is, no bonus for cup championship... remaining is to observe/see who fan mood is effected by league championship games...championships are a couple weeks away, so we will see searchkeychurchkey (string for finding thread using search) |
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| #74294 | 06/09/2020 2:20:56 pm | Oct 27th, 2045 | |
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Ken_Kennilworth Joined: 11/26/2019 Posts: 417 Charleston Hawks Legends
| Championship Playoff Games & Fan Mood Well, it seems these wins and losses have even more impact on fan mood than i thought. But Mike called it!! Attaway Mike! (see above post by him) Playoff Games are 2.5 times more important than regular season games. change due to win Mood after game = 2.5*4*(200-Fan Mood before game)/200 change due to a loss Fan Mood after game = -4*Fan Mood before*2.5 [determined by comparing before and after fan mood for two teams competing in League V12 game...then applying the formula previously worked out for fan mood...modifying the multiplier (bolded in formula) until formula result matched change calculated by before and after observation] Updated Tuesday, June 9 2020 @ 2:32:16 pm PDT |
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| #74353 | 06/11/2020 5:43:49 pm | Nov 4th, 2045 | |
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Jerbeetwo Joined: 06/30/2019 Posts: 337 Tyler Goldendoodles IV.3 
| Good work Ken but now I have a math headache. | ||
| #74355 | 06/11/2020 6:20:46 pm | Nov 4th, 2045 | |
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Jerbeetwo Joined: 06/30/2019 Posts: 337 Tyler Goldendoodles IV.3
| It would seem that there is more to fan mood than this formula alone. I began this season with a fan mood of 103.77. I am ending this season at 96.41. Yet for this season I went 12-8 in my cup group and 1-2 in the next round against a far superior team (again!). I went 81-79 during the regular season. I won more games than I lost in 2045 so why would my fan mood drop if we use only the formula offered in this thread? What am I missing? And I’ll be the first to admit to never being the best in higher levels of math so I hope the answer to this isn’t easy and embarrassing. Lol |
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| #74356 | 06/11/2020 6:54:38 pm | Nov 4th, 2045 | |
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Geech Joined: 01/12/2014 Posts: 579 San Luis Obispo Turtles IV.8 
| Your team did end up being just above .500, but you ended the season with just two wins in your last 11 games. That many losses in a short period will bring your fan mood down. If you had the exact same record, but more of your wins were clustered at the end of the season, you may very well have ended the season with a higher fan mood. This is because fan mood has a tendency to hover around 100. As Ken reported, getting higher than 100 makes your fan mood more sensitive to losses than additional wins, and likewise getting below 100 will eventually make your fan mood more sensitive to wins than additional losses. This means your fan mood will tend to stay within a relatively narrow range around 100, and so an especially good or bad streak can have a lot of impact your mood score. |
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| #74357 | 06/11/2020 7:17:48 pm | Nov 4th, 2045 | |
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Ken_Kennilworth Joined: 11/26/2019 Posts: 417 Charleston Hawks Legends
| thanks Greech...you explained the effects quite well what JeeBeeTwo can do to test the formula is to download/copy-paste his 2045 schedule into a spreadsheet then apply the appropriate formula to fan mood and recalculate game by game the fan mood for all 160 games...he should tie out to his end fan mood i've been doing something like that for selected teams to observe how attendance is impacted by fan mood (using goal seek to learn fan mood before each game)...so far i can say there is some correlation between a-priori fan mood and attendance, but not perfect correlation--don't know if the game engine uses a moving average of fan mood of home team only, includes visiting team fan mood, position in standings, how much weather effects...etc what i can share now is that in Level V a fan mood of 100 will result in attendance near 25,000; and fan mood of about 110 will result in approx 27,000...thus change 10 in fan mood results in +2000 game attendance? as noted, the correlation is not perfect, there is some variation Updated Thursday, June 11 2020 @ 8:56:54 pm PDT |
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| #74358 | 06/11/2020 8:45:46 pm | Nov 4th, 2045 | |
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Gunnar Joined: 01/05/2020 Posts: 170 Inactive
| How can you see fan mood and rating on a game by game bases? Or did you just track it on your own? | ||
| #74359 | 06/11/2020 9:10:28 pm | Nov 4th, 2045 | |
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Ken_Kennilworth Joined: 11/26/2019 Posts: 417 Charleston Hawks Legends
| Gunnar **cliffs: I tracked it well after the fact** Game by Game fan mood -- near the end of the season i constructed a spreadsheet using data downloaded from the Schedule Page, going back to the start of the season--then for each game i add in/select the formula to calculate the change in fan mood--the specific formula to use depends on type of game (League, Cup, Playoff) and the result (Win Loss)...Mood before a game + change = Mood after a game...and then for the next game, mood before equals the mood after prior game...thus you chain link fan mood for all games in the season...then use the goal seek command with the season ending fan mood to back into the fan mood before each games all the way back to the start of the season...tedious, time consuming and one needs to check one's work for errors...but, it allows for tracking fan mood and comparing to attendance. Updated Friday, June 12 2020 @ 6:17:30 am PDT |
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