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Forum >> Discussions >> Is this prospect I've held onto for 6.5 years a bust?  

Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date	Function
#50006	06/09/2017 8:13:08 am		Ignore
BrianV Joined: 02/08/2016 Posts: 125 Inactive	Tomas Saavedra was one of my first draft picks after joining the game. A 19-year old lefty shortstop type with 14-POT and 70SI, but no hitting comment, but I was hoping for 12 or 13 hitting. In the intervening years, he hasn't developed quickly. He's gained 19SI to sit at 89SI now at 25 years old. He's age 25, so after his only season in AA, I promoted him to AAA to get a season in. At this point, he looks like he'll be a liability with both the bat and the glove, and with the 2 season split between AA and AAA, I suspect he won't get anywhere near his cap since he seems to have missed a lot of minor league experience. Is it time to give up on him? I have similar thoughts about Armando Leon, though his glove may help him stick as an outfielder until his bat improves. Part of me wants to give them their age 26 season in the majors to see what happens, but that means writing off next season already. Updated Friday, June 9 2017 @ 8:13:38 am PDT
#50014	06/09/2017 9:26:33 am		Ignore
buffmckagan Joined: 12/22/2013 Posts: 651 Scranton Bears Legends	I'd keep him in the minors and bring him up when he turns 27
#50015	06/09/2017 9:27:49 am		Ignore
newtman Joined: 11/02/2013 Posts: 3343 Inactive	I'd leave him in AAA until the end of the age 26 season, but given his less than ideal build, you probably could cut him. Problem is how difficult it is to get talent nowadays, so it really depends on what your feel for your overall situation is. My recommendation though would be to NOT promote to the majors before the end of this season at the earliest since it would likely ruin any remaining hope he could come close to his cap.
#50032	06/09/2017 1:58:51 pm		Ignore
amalric7 Joined: 01/20/2016 Posts: 2238 New York Lancers V.4	There's a recurring theme here for Syracuse. I've been following Archuleta ever since I passed on him in the 5th round of 2028 for his namesake, Juan. First instance I had of a very good potential being very worse than a good, really wanted a strong SS at that time (still do), although Adam certainly hasn't moved quickly. Which is my point. All the Yankees players mentioned are Latin and some of those can move slowly, but given they look to have had decent SI scores at good ages, I think the main problem is the lack of a good/excellent teaching manager. Landry is a good majors manager but developing players is the best way to improve your future success, and the Yankees have always lacked for that.
#50035	06/09/2017 2:12:47 pm		Ignore
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9603 Haverhill Halflings III.1	Leon has a sub-optimal build, so may not be worth spending a lot on him. Saavedra looks like he could be decent. Biggest issue is that he spent over 3 years in A. He probably really belongs in AA right now... Just seems like a guy who is going to have a hard time hitting his POT. I've kept a number of guys in AAA at 26 and they have turned out ok. I would actually consider putting Saavedra back in AA for a few week, and then leaving him in AAA at 26. He has enough positives that I think he can be a useful SS.
#50171	06/14/2017 5:54:37 am		Ignore
BrianV Joined: 02/08/2016 Posts: 125 Inactive	Thanks for the thoughts all. Amalric - you are right about this being a theme for me. It's starting to scare me off Latin players for good. Steve has said in several threads that the nationality is just there for flavor and doesn't impact development, but I feel like there's a really strong correlation. I've thought about finding a better manager with development ratings, but the ones I've found typically have bad flaws elsewhere. I didn't want to bring up Archuleta in this thread as well, but he's certainly behind levels-wise as well. Edit: Hired Felipe Barrera as my manager and fired Archy Landry. Hopefully this will help turn my minors system around some. Updated Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 6:30:55 am PDT
#50200	06/15/2017 3:29:09 am		Ignore
Balbinjj Joined: 05/27/2014 Posts: 213 Appleton Foxes III.1	I am one of the few who value Minor league stats... With more than 6 seasons in the minors, .307/.364/.438 will not be achievable if you are not a decent bat. Try him at the majors next season..
#50552	06/29/2017 7:03:49 am		Ignore
BrianV Joined: 02/08/2016 Posts: 125 Inactive	Ricardo Gonzalez is a new prospect I've drafted this year. I already suspect that he's going to be another on of my slow-developing Latin prospects.
#50553	06/29/2017 8:15:07 am		Ignore
Seca Joined: 05/05/2014 Posts: 5201 Waterloo Dinosaurs Legends	It's natural to be concerned/pessimistic about your own prospects. But I don't see any reason to be worried about Gonzalez at the moment.
#50554	06/29/2017 8:23:50 am		Ignore
brentswagger Joined: 03/22/2016 Posts: 265 Lakeville Bears IV.2	Yeah, I don't see any reason to be concerned about Gonzalez. He has been around for only a handful of updates and has gained a couple of skill levels. Even if he gains at say 7 per year that would put him at 95 skill index at 25. Sure we would like to see our guys be majors ready at 20 years old but that just doesn't happen much. I think he looks to be on target to hit the majors around 24-25 years old which is probably a more average age to hit the majors. Updated Thursday, June 29 2017 @ 8:27:01 am PDT
#50559	06/29/2017 1:55:47 pm		Ignore
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9603 Haverhill Halflings III.1	It's natural to be concerned/pessimistic about your own prospects. Really? I'm never concerned/pessimistic about my own prospects. However I am frequently disappointed, LOL.
#50827	07/07/2017 7:31:42 am		Ignore
BrianV Joined: 02/08/2016 Posts: 125 Inactive	I ended up putting Saavedra back in AA for the rest of the season (59 games). He's gained 2 SI this entire season. I'm debating whether to stick Saavedra back in the minors next season or whether to try him in the majors. My current SS (Medina) is great with a glove, but lousy with a bat. I'm debating replacing him internally with either Saavedra or Moreland - I don't think either will put up *worse* offensive numbers. Moreland doesn't have great batting, but I feel like he's trained as far as he can be in the minors. I don't like sticking him at SS with that fielding... but when I run the numbers he should develop OK given playing time. If I do that, I can buy another year for Saavedra in the minors in AAA. It's frustrating that he's just good enough to not cut him, but frustratingly slow development.
#50830	07/07/2017 7:57:27 am		Ignore
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9603 Haverhill Halflings III.1	Moreland is ready for the majors. You might suffer a bit with that ss, but he actually did pretty well in the field this season. I wouldn't expect him to repeat that performance though. On the plus side, they do gain position experience a little faster when they play games in the majors. So its painful, but possibly somewhat rewarding. I can guarantee you that Saavedra needs more time in the minors. If you can buy him another year it is probably worth it. Biggest issue being he really may never pan out. His growth rate is pretty disappointing. 21 points in 6+ years is pretty sad... Never would have imagined that guy would bust with 70 SI as a 19 year old. I do think there is still an outside change (depends on growth curve; late bloomer?), but his risk climbs the longer he lingers in development.
#50831	07/07/2017 8:02:08 am		Ignore
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9603 Haverhill Halflings III.1	On the bright side González has already grown 3 SI. That is pretty good for an 18 year old player. Most players grow slowly until they hit 20/21.
#50832	07/07/2017 8:02:21 am		Ignore
BrianV Joined: 02/08/2016 Posts: 125 Inactive	Thanks Rock - that more or less matches my view of it. I'm going to give him another year and let Moreland take over as my starting SS. At the end of next season, I'll either put him in in place of Moreland or cut him loose, depending how the two develop. They are both competing for the same job, so only one can stay long term. At one point I was confident in Saavedra and almost cut Moreland... now I'm glad I didn't.
#50833	07/07/2017 8:06:40 am		Ignore
BrianV Joined: 02/08/2016 Posts: 125 Inactive	RE: Gonzalez - *AND* he has 10 SB in 46 hits (that were not triples or HRs). Hopefully he keeps that up!
#50834	07/07/2017 8:10:57 am		Ignore
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9603 Haverhill Halflings III.1	One last thought on Saavedra. Players are not maxed out in their position experience when the get the capital letters. The letters listed first on their cards are the positions they have the most experience in. And remember, they lose experience over time if they don't play positions enough. Saavandra is currently best at 3B, but probably fairly marginally staying above the line in all three positions. If you know which position you will want to play him in if he makes the majors, I would focus all his experience next year on that position. I'd definitely take him out of the OF. Most players can't really maintain more than two positions once they get to the major league level.
#50836	07/07/2017 8:21:31 am		Ignore
BrianV Joined: 02/08/2016 Posts: 125 Inactive	Interesting - I had thought once they had the capital letters, they 'knew' the position. I've been training in 2-3 positions across my minors system for years for flexibility at promotion time. Maybe that wasn't a great strategy!
#50837	07/07/2017 8:27:51 am		Ignore
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9603 Haverhill Halflings III.1	When Steve first created the ability to train in other positions, the players would only play in the positions you set them to in minor league games. I had a guy I trained up to a 2B, SS, 3B, who ended up being 2b, ss, 3b by the time he hit the majors LOL. Now the AI is smarter and plays guys in the positions they know to help them maintain, but they can still lose experience AND capitals isn't the max. Training some guys in 3 positions isn't horrible, just don't expect to maintain them all at a high level. Even if one or two slip to lowercase in the majors, they still provide flexibility. The position experience works something like this (notional): negative...........0(nothing)...............ss...............SS...............max (no graphical indication at max) Its even possible that there is no max. All we know for sure is that capital is not fully learned. Also lowercase can be just one step away from capital. The capitalization just lets you know approximately where they are in their learning. If you drop from capital to lowercase, fielding ability won't drop dramatically, because it is all a continuous vector with sublevels (think 0-1000). Updated Friday, July 7 2017 @ 8:31:59 am PDT
#50840	07/07/2017 1:56:45 pm		Ignore
Seca Joined: 05/05/2014 Posts: 5201 Waterloo Dinosaurs Legends	You really think where they play their minor league games matters? Figured minor league games were just for show/fun. Whatever maintenance occurs comes from your setting. Anyway. Piggybacking the thread to talk Bresciani. He's gone from cleanup to 7th to 7th only against lefties too ... I think back to AAA this week. I can't just sit him b/c my manager thinks he's the best RHB on the bench. Would you cut him? His .270 12 HR season is looking like the fluke rather than the true talent I had hoped.
#50842	07/07/2017 2:46:46 pm		Ignore
lostraven Joined: 07/02/2016 Posts: 1269 Corvallis Ravens II.1	My concept of what it's like to compete in Legends is practically zero, so I'm hesitant to give recommendations, Seca. Here's what I'm willing to say though: * I'm slowly warming up to the idea that players can for no team-based contextual reason just have a bad year (or two) but come back from it. But I'm only buying into it slightly. For me this years it's been Pardo and Lohman roaring back after a couple of down years. Were those two previous down years because in the background, lurking deep in the sim engine, something was giving them an off year? Or is the more likely and reasonable answer that there was a change in league dynamic that caused both of those players to come back hard this year? All that's to say maybe Bresciani can come out of it next year, which leads me to... * I find it slightly interesting that his pattern of walking more than striking out didn't start until 2030 (even looking in the minors). I'm guessing his PD finally caught up around that time? Regardless, he's maintained that pattern of more walks than strikeouts this year. Without looking at the league closely — and because of the zero knowledge of Legends I previously mentioned — are any other similar players having a down year on your team? Do you think it's player, league change this year, or a mix of both?
#50844	07/07/2017 3:23:35 pm		Ignore
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9603 Haverhill Halflings III.1	Figured minor league games were just for show/fun. Whatever maintenance occurs comes from your setting. Used to be that players only played where you had them set. Also used to be that players would be constantly losing their capital letters on positions. Now I seldom see either of those things happen, and I just set guys to the position I want them at. So either it does make a difference, or Steve just happened to fix both issues at the same time. Pretty sure they only maintain because they are getting experience in all their positions. But that could either be because they are playing there, or because Steve introduced automatic maintenance experience in the minors.
#50846	07/07/2017 3:31:16 pm		Ignore
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9603 Haverhill Halflings III.1	RE: Bresciani, it doesn't look like his hitting has maxed out yet. I would not be surprised to see it pop one more before he turns 31. Not sure if he gains more training in AAA or the Majors as a 28 year old, but it looks like he might have been promoted a little prematurely. One thing I have noticed with my guys who are a little stunted is that they seem to perform above their abilities while they are still improving, but then their performance drastically decreases when they reach their Experience ceiling. Might just be RNG + small samples, but its possible developing players get a bit of a boost in the majors until their experience caps. I suspect Bresciani is missing a little training (just over 1 year in AAA). Not sure if its enough to make up the difference though. Updated Friday, July 7 2017 @ 3:33:00 pm PDT
#50847	07/07/2017 3:36:55 pm		Ignore
Seca Joined: 05/05/2014 Posts: 5201 Waterloo Dinosaurs Legends	Thanks for the feedback. Ya, the BB:K thing is mostly about him filling out his SI. I think. Its a good question about the league. There are some very good LHP. That said, of my key RHB Zarate and Enriquez are hitting LHP better this season compared to last. Butler is down, but still hitting .274. Farrell is switch, and hitting LHP much better than RHP. I don't think its the competiton. I definitely buy into your bad season idea. Whether its a form variable that ticks at the bottom of the spectrum or rng replicating that, bad (and good) seasons certainly happen. But this is worse than I would have expected as a bad season for his stats. He's probably really overscouted. Power numbers corroborate. His true talent is probably splitting the difference - .230, 12 HR. Disappointing. Will look to replace him next season.
#50945	07/11/2017 1:33:45 pm		Ignore
amalric7 Joined: 01/20/2016 Posts: 2238 New York Lancers V.4	I'd hold on to Bresciani for now. I've had more guys than I care to count have 'bad season syndrome' (or bad half season). I can give a bunch of examples. Fletcher was a 19 Hit/17 BC guy and ideal RF (15 Range, 17 Arm). Steady as a rock through his first four seasons, two-time All-Star. Then in 2030 he hit .170 through roughly 50 games, so I put him on the bench. Called back up later in the season he .350 and played a role in our promotion campaign. But when he did nothing again last season he was cut to make way for the youth movement/rebuild. Lawson is an extreme example (he's lost a point of POW but otherwise hitting is still the same, all his other SI lost is in speed/fielding stats). An All-Star in 2027 when he hit nearly .340 in the first half to lead the league. After the ASG he hit around .170, sucked big time. But he turned it around again and had a terrific 2028 season, All-Star and All-League. But then hit just .227 in 2029, before rebounding to .280 in 2030. Another slow start in 2031 was the end for him as a Lancer. To give an example from this season, my star player Ortiz. First time he's had a prolonged slump, hitting .271 through the ASG. Absolutely no reason for it. Turned it around since then, now hitting his usual .329 and all numbers in line. Bresciani's numbers excepting AVG all look in line with previous norms, so I'd expect him to have turned it around with more opportunity, because that is my experience. Then again, a flyball hitter who has so many GIDP must be doing something wrong.
#53426	09/25/2017 10:08:06 am		Ignore
BrianV Joined: 02/08/2016 Posts: 125 Inactive	It's now a season and a half later, and Saavedra now has 95SI at the close of his age 26 season. He gained 4 SI in AAA this season. As I said earlier in the thread prior to this season, I made Moreland was my starting SS while Saavedra got more development time. I now need to decide what to do for next season. Moreland did well this season, hit .295/.321/.404 despite terrible offensive ratings. He also managed a .960 FP as shortstop - only 15 errors in 128 games. Saavedra on the other hand hit .270/.307/.386 in AAA this year, despite being a better offensive player on paper. He also made 8 errors in 42 games at SS. Defensively, Moreland is the better player with 11 fld /17 rng /16 arm. Saavedra is currently at 8 fld / 16 rng / 14 arm. Moreland projects to be outstanding the field while Saavedra will be merely 'solid'. Offensively, Saavedra *should* be a better batter, although he stunk in AAA this year. If he can gain 10 points in the majors, he has a chance to be a decent batter (for a SS in LLVI). Moreland will be a 'very good' hitter, but his plate discipline and power have flatlined at 4. I expect his batting stats to regress next season. The bottom line - which of these two candidates would be the better SS? The goal is to bridge until Archuleta is ready, if that ever happens, or Blanton if Archuleta flames out like Saavedra seems to be doing. Option C - I can try to snag a gap filler SS off waivers / free agency, but that's a long shot. I don't want to depend on it.
#53429	09/25/2017 12:04:16 pm		Ignore
AssumedPseudonym Joined: 10/26/2016 Posts: 1130 Deerfield Beach Rats V.7	Of those two, I definitely like Moreland better. Better range, better arm, and better fielding projection make him more appealing as a shortstop, and having a positive hitting comment makes him more likely to make contact more frequently (if he actually grows into the scouting report, anyway). I’m possibly biased, though; I’ll take a consistent singles guy over an unpredictable slugger any day.
#53430	09/25/2017 12:20:29 pm		Ignore
Cactusguy21 Joined: 07/25/2017 Posts: 815 Presque Isle Vikings III.4	I agree with Assumed, I'll take a contact hitter over a slugger any day. Especially since my 6 power platoon 2B seems to hit just fine for power.
#53432	09/25/2017 12:38:58 pm		Ignore
wickersty Joined: 05/11/2017 Posts: 1002 Deadwood Perambulators II.1	I had about 5 players that I picked up off waivers who were 25/26 and underdeveloped. I played them in AAA all season long, hoping for their development to pick up again, in spite of the demotion back to the minors. I was pretty disappointed with most of them interns of their AAA development through the season. Mason gained 7 SI. I'm letting him play the last week+ of the season in the majors. I think he's the most likely to earn a spot on the major league roster in 2034, which would make him a waiver wire success story I think. Veras gained 6 SI and is still learning the OF. I love his range and arm, but hate his fielding. I'm hoping that Hitting and Bat Control keep going up. He probably needs to spend 2034 in AAA but I'm not sure I'm willing to use the roster spot on him there next season. Suarez is a total disaster who has gained only 4 SI and It's very likely I'll be releasing him in the offseason. Mesa gained only 4 SI as well, and he really needs another full year in AAA. Fink also gained only 4 SI. And I think he's also destined for the waiver wire in the offseason, but for some reason I find myself wanting to give him more time. Updated Monday, September 25 2017 @ 3:20:38 pm PDT
#53437	09/25/2017 5:07:23 pm		Ignore
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9603 Haverhill Halflings III.1	My players typically only gain 4-5 SI per season in the minors. So it looks to me like all those guys did pretty reasonable. 4 SI is on the low side, but I would be very happy with the other two, and for all we know those guys with 4 SI are now on the cusp of popping another 4 SI.
#53445	09/26/2017 7:41:46 am		Ignore
amalric7 Joined: 01/20/2016 Posts: 2238 New York Lancers V.4	@BrianV - I don't hold out much hope for Saavedra. He's never gained more than 4 SI in one season (in his long minors career) so it would take an exceptional leap next season in the majors to see him become a worthwhile play at SS (look at Barry's numbers as a comparison, prior to this season's power surge). Archuleta looks like Saavedra 2.0, shame about his slow progress. Moreland might well slump next season but he's still the better play for me, and Blanton (admittedly without the bat to match) looks like Moreland 2.0! I'd still look for a better option, and if you're fortunate enough to land one you can then move on from at least two of these guys.

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