Broken Bat - Discussion Forum: Draft help

Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date

#86034	12/17/2021 3:57:14 pm	Mar 15th, 2053
atomic Joined: 12/05/2012 Posts: 89 Sunnyvale Rebels III.3	It's pure luck. High potential doesn't mean they will keep the potential... Over the last 10 years from the 3 POT 16 I drafted all got downgraded, one even to 14 From the 4 POT 15, 2 got downgraded From the 10 POT 14, 5 got downgraded, only 1 with an upgrade From the 10 POT 13, 4 got downgraded From the 20 guys with POT 12 and below, 3 got downgraded and 5 got an upgrade Furthermore, some high potentials are not really useful in the big leagues (at least not as full time starters): originally POT 14: https://brokenbat.org/player/206332 https://brokenbat.org/player/205837 https://brokenbat.org/player/256527 https://brokenbat.org/player/258995 originally 15: https://brokenbat.org/player/251462 So what I'm trying to say is that a POT 12 or 13 with the right scouting comments could be a better choice than a POT 14+ in the end... Updated Friday, December 17 2021 @ 4:00:28 pm PST

#86035	12/17/2021 4:03:59 pm	Mar 15th, 2053
electriceel883 Joined: 05/26/2021 Posts: 1528 Irvine Infernos III.3	Not my draft pick, but check out this guy https://brokenbat.org/player/269391 Downgraded from 15-13. He had 27 claims when released and I got him. Still stuck in A Ball at 23. Gained 18 SI in 6 seasons. Even so, his middle infield abilities are adequate at best and not great. Nothing's guaranteed. https://brokenbat.org/player/294901 My #1 this year. Downgrades and failed to upgrade are much more common with above average potential. His SI is however quite high for an 18 year old, which might help him avoid that. However I feel his great hitting, starting attribute of 10, his left-handedness and reasonable middle infield fielding abilities still give him the value to overcome dropping a POT (though maybe not 2). Time will tell Updated Friday, December 17 2021 @ 4:12:40 pm PST

#86036	12/17/2021 4:13:54 pm	Mar 15th, 2053
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9778 Haverhill Halflings Legends	"He has above average overall potential" pretty much guarantees a POT 13 or lower. And probably a weak POT 13. Definitely read the scouting comments. A good GM will pick the best player, but how good the best player is... That's completely luck. I've had many seasons with nothing better than a POT 12 on my first round board. Got lucky this season. Also, don't knock POT 12 pitchers. Most of my pitchers are POT 12. Nine out of thirteen in the majors and six out of 8 in the minors. ~75% of my guys are POT 12. And the only guy higher than POT 13 is the rookie I just drafted. Updated Friday, December 17 2021 @ 4:19:14 pm PST

#86037	12/17/2021 4:30:42 pm	Mar 15th, 2053
electriceel883 Joined: 05/26/2021 Posts: 1528 Irvine Infernos III.3	3 POT 11, 9 POT 12, 6 POT 13, 2 POT 14 pitchers. 7 of whom changes POT after I got them, 3 lost and 4 gained. Only 5 of the 20 are draft picks. So getting good players will often be a combination of things. Draft is just one tool, so dont get discouraged if some drafts are poor.

#86039	12/17/2021 4:45:14 pm	Mar 15th, 2053
atomic Joined: 12/05/2012 Posts: 89 Sunnyvale Rebels III.3	Does this guy https://brokenbat.org/player/269391 really have the recommendation to play A ball only, not above? To me, he was ready for A ball after the second rookie season at latest - look at his stats... I'd bet his development would have taken another path if he had the chance to taste A & AA earlier. He'd be ready for AAA now to my guess at least. Updated Friday, December 17 2021 @ 4:47:23 pm PST

#86041	12/17/2021 4:57:04 pm	Mar 16th, 2053
electriceel883 Joined: 05/26/2021 Posts: 1528 Irvine Infernos III.3	Yes, that is really the recommendation. I mentioned it here last season. If nothing changes by ASG he will be force-promoted. I played him most of the spring trying to get him unstuck from A ball. He continues gaining SI even from the low levels AI seems to think he should be at. And his SI is very high for A ball which helps his stats. Good thing I have 2 young SS and that makes it easier to deal with the long shot project he is becoming as the cycles go by. Updated Friday, December 17 2021 @ 5:02:05 pm PST

#86044	12/17/2021 11:09:52 pm	Mar 16th, 2053
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9778 Haverhill Halflings Legends	One of the challenges with super young guys. Sometimes they need a lot of time in Rookie ball. Some guys need 3+ seasons at each level to mature, which can often mean they never make it. But each player has a different growth curve. Some guys really shoot up when they get into their late twenties. In general force promoting is a bad idea; they gain the most if they are at the correct level. So pushing a guy up a level before he is ready will actually slow his progress. However the AI recommendations are not 100% accurate, so when you have an older guy like this, it can make sense to gamble that the AI is being over conservative with him. If he were a year younger I wouldn't force promote him until next season. But given his age, force promoting at the all-star break seems about right.

#86050	12/18/2021 2:17:42 pm	Mar 16th, 2053
atomic Joined: 12/05/2012 Posts: 89 Sunnyvale Rebels III.3	I'd push him up hoping it's just a click at BC or PD which is holding him down. I could live with that when he gains 5 points in hitting in further 2 minor years. Are you sure he's messed up once he's up a level without getting to 100% in previous level? Updated Saturday, December 18 2021 @ 2:18:20 pm PST

#86052	12/18/2021 3:14:58 pm	Mar 17th, 2053
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9778 Haverhill Halflings Legends	Yeah, they gain SI the faster if they are at the correct level. If you push him up before he is ready ALL of his SI growth will be slower. Again, the AI has fuzzy recommendations, so they aren't always correct. But you'll always maximize training gains at the correct level.

#86063	12/21/2021 12:32:01 pm	Mar 25th, 2053
Ced Joined: 11/07/2014 Posts: 656 Denver Broncos III.2	The Denvy draft war room can share with you these secrets: Draft a player after each Economic Update. As soon as you can after each Economic Update. Promote drafting youth. Promote drafting high school youth. Promote drafting best player available over position. Read the draft picks on the BB forum or Discord. Listen to Rock say don’t get jealous about others. But understand why owners are excited enough or confused enough to post their pick on the forum. Denvy dropped Deandre Cash Register, 2B 17 pot. We had enough info on him and that is it. He won the ROY with another ball club. Great organizational fit for Pratville! He hit forty for us in 25 at-bats. Birmingham would have allowed him 10 more. So the other key is to be heartless. Always free agency if the war room ***** it up.