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Forum >> Discussions >> ERA, FIP and Sequencing  

Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date	Function
#28443	12/29/2015 8:57:38 am		Ignore
Seca Joined: 05/05/2014 Posts: 5201 Waterloo Dinosaurs Legends	This started out as a question and turned into a bit of a Fangraph-y babble. Don't feel obligated to read. Dinos are having a fairly good season. However, I'm finding it one of the less enjoyable seasons to watch my team. The reason is that I've got it in my head that my team is repeatedly getting victimized by poor sequencing. Each game I watch I wait for the bomb to go off. Its hard to get it out of my head (confirmation bias). So I've set out to look for evidence of whether this is real or imagined. For those less familiar, sequencing just refers to the order that events happen. Its generally viewed to be outside of player control, and a manifestation of luck. This game is one example of what I'm talking about. In the bottom of the 6th my opponent got a double, walk and HR and scored 3 runs. In the top of the 7th I also got a double, walk and HR, but only scored 1 run. Statistically, one of the places sequencing can show up is the difference between ERA and FIP. If other factors are held constant, a change in the gap between these values may be due to luck. My team is predicated on playing good defense. Traditionally the Dinos have shown a solid gap between ERA and FIP. Last season: 3.95 FIP, 3.27 ERA This season: 3.79 FIP, 3.58 ERA A noticeable difference from last season. But is there something that can account for this rather than sequencing? Defense If the defense was poorer this season, that would affect the gap. Dinos opened the season with the same lineup/defense as last season. A change has been made at 2B, and a couple rookies are getting some time at 3B and RF. In all cases the new players have as much or more range than the predecessor. There is a little loss of arm, but these are part-time players. Probably not a big effect. Opponents 1/3 of the division changes each season. Maybe teams have better hitters this season? Opponent BA last season: .226 Opponent BA this season: .230 WHIP last season: 1.199 WHIP this season: 1.205 Opponent BABIP last season: .254 Opponent BABIP this season: .260 A modest improvement, though 4 points of BA / 6 points of BABIP isn't the answer. An extra 0.1 hit per game shouldn't yield 0.3 more runs per game. Personnel Some pitchers are able to consistently outperform their FIP. Extreme flyball pitchers like Chris Young or Marco Estrada are treated very poorly by FIP. Maybe some changes to the pitching staff can account for the change? Might be on to something here, as there are some significant changes to the pitching staff. Booth, a struggling rookie (and unknown commodity), has taken Bradley's spot in the rotation. Bradley has a very good career ERA-FIP. Dawson had an unbelievable season in 2024. He's come back to Earth in 2025. Some definite signs here that there may be something else going on besides sequencing. But that takes us to Hardy. Hardy is the long time staff ace. He's also the biggest contributor to the team stats, as he almost always leads the team in IP (he doesn't pitch in the Cup, so gets a few more league starts). Over his 7 season career, Hardy has consistently beat his FIP by a run or more every season aside from his rookie season. And, well, this season. For the first time since Hardy was a rookie he has an ERA bigger than his FIP. None of his peripherals have slid. He's playing in front of essentially the same defense. And yet his ERA has ballooned (for Hardy). This is reflected in his record - he leads his division in loses for a starting pitcher. In Conclusion I think I found some solace in there. I was under the impression the Dinos were constantly getting throttled by sequencing, but the effect may be more localized on Hardy. Definitely frustrating. Especially because Dino offense isn't built for good sequencing. A low BC lineup doesn't lend itself to a lot of extended rallies. But I think I can be more optimistic going forward. If Hardy can get his act together, overall Dino numbers may begin to approach norms.
#28446	12/29/2015 9:23:02 am		Ignore
Crazy Li Joined: 01/25/2015 Posts: 879 Inactive	Hardy is too good of a pitcher to play at a poor rate the entire season. I wouldn't worry too much if I were you.
#28482	12/30/2015 2:18:33 pm		Ignore
Spoonerific Joined: 01/17/2013 Posts: 339 Inactive	Ballpark size can effect it as well remember. If those 3 new teams have hitters parks and the ones leaving have big pitcher friendly ones it can throw your numbers off. If you were to gauge only the numbers from home games you would get a better image of some type of correlation.
#28486	12/30/2015 3:40:07 pm		Ignore
Seca Joined: 05/05/2014 Posts: 5201 Waterloo Dinosaurs Legends	Ballpark is an interesting suggestion. FIP is lower, HR/game is lower. I haven't looked at the 2 new teams parks, but they'd have to be larger to be consistent. I've often thought large parks worked for my team. Hardy's latest start. 6 shutout innings, up 3-0 going to the 7th. Same old same old. Implode for the loss. Maybe I should be setting a closer in his starts to try to get him out after 6 before he presses the LOL-U-WIN button.
#93217	11/27/2023 10:41:24 am	May 14th, 2062	Ignore
Ken_Kennilworth Joined: 11/26/2019 Posts: 400 Charleston Hawks II.1	FIP adds a constant to adjust the FIP result to a number comparable to era...somehow your unadjusted FIP is always so low as to leave the adjusted FIP result below your ERA...the constant is based on league averages i believe...my guess is your defense is affecting the number and fielding independent pitching is no so independent (defense & range matters) the sequencing problem SECA mentions should average out eventually due to law of large numbers Updated Monday, November 27 2023 @ 11:09:01 am PST
#93218	11/27/2023 2:58:26 pm	May 14th, 2062	Ignore
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9601 Haverhill Halflings III.1	A bit of a necro Ken The issue I have with FIP is that it doesn't include hits. Pitchers who give up a ton of hits will have a bad ERA but could have a good FIP. People often point to the ERA - FIP delta as bad luck or poor defensive support. But more often than not, the pitcher is just pitching batting practice. Its too convoluted a number to have utility. I consider WHIP a much better indication of performance. If they don't give up a lot of hits or walks, then they are doing good.
#93219	11/27/2023 3:19:13 pm	May 15th, 2062	Ignore
Ken_Kennilworth Joined: 11/26/2019 Posts: 400 Charleston Hawks II.1	lol, yes necro i was wondering if ERA better than FIP is an indicator of good defense--then i found this thread...can't say i have any better ideas about the topic now point taken re: whip, thanks
#93220	11/27/2023 3:29:33 pm	May 15th, 2062	Ignore
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9601 Haverhill Halflings III.1	Yeah defense is tough to measure. Particularly range effects. FP% is great, but only tells part of the story. I think you might get some indication of defense if you look at FIP over your entire staff maybe? Especially in a year to year comparison. But I'm still very leery of FIP.
#93221	11/27/2023 7:03:00 pm	May 17th, 2062	Ignore
Ken_Kennilworth Joined: 11/26/2019 Posts: 400 Charleston Hawks II.1	rock, your idea of team era v fip as a measure of defense looks like a winner thanx! found this article which says ERA is impacted by defense, FIP is not>>>thus ERA below FIP indicates good defense and/or a home field stingy with offense https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2017/4/4/15180804/an-idiots-guide-advanced-statistics-fip-era Updated Monday, November 27 2023 @ 7:11:30 pm PST
#93222	11/27/2023 7:22:23 pm	May 17th, 2062	Ignore
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9601 Haverhill Halflings III.1	That is the theory, but I think its BS. Those who espouse the theory argue that once the ball enters play the pitcher no longer has any influence on the outcome. But this is a highly flawed theory that stems from a lack of really understanding the game. A good pitcher most certainly has an impact on the outcome. Just consider something like GB/FB. A pitcher who makes the hitter hit on the ground (or in the air) is impacting the play that occurs after the ball enters the field. This follows through with other aspects. If a pitcher is throwing meatballs, a hitter can better control where the ball goes (think Rod Carew). So the pitcher/hitter in combination will greatly impact the ability of the defense to handle the play. A good pitcher will make it easier for the defense, while a bad pitcher will make it harder. This is why you can't look at a pitcher with a 1.5 H/IP ratio and just assume he has a bad defense. Looking at the full team is somewhat better because then you are seeing all pitchers. If its just a couple guys, then its probably because those pitchers are bad. If its the whole team that is doing poorly, then it is more likely that it is a problem with the defense. But nothing is really guaranteed. A poor stadium to pitcher matchup can also have a big impact. And remember, you play half your games away. So part of the yearly swings is related to your changing competition. Both the opposing batters and ballparks. Updated Monday, November 27 2023 @ 7:28:49 pm PST

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