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Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date	Function
#88541	06/29/2022 9:15:08 pm	Aug 14th, 2055	Ignore
electriceel883 Joined: 05/26/2021 Posts: 1528 Irvine Infernos III.3	Using minor league performance for Right-Handed Pichers with Unhittable fastball comment to project eventual velocity attribute: Minors: 7.13K/9 = 18 Velocity https://brokenbat.org/player/266797 Minors: 8.58K/9 = 20 Velocity https://brokenbat.org/player/251450 Both look fully developed. Minors: 7.61K/9 = ?? 19 Maybe? (based on minors numbers remaining relatively the same) https://brokenbat.org/player/295655 Thoughts?
#88549	06/30/2022 2:28:17 pm	Aug 14th, 2055	Ignore
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9778 Haverhill Halflings Legends	I don't think you can really draw that tight of an inference. For one they will be facing slightly different competition. Also their performance is based on their current ability, so unless they have identical growth rates its hard to compare. Plus there is always going to be variation. Now, I do think there is inferencing that can happen there. And maybe that number you generated it a helpful swag, but I think mostly only in looking at their final couple of seasons. If you look at all of minors, there is going to be too much variability. Mostly I like minor league numbers to show trends, tendencies, and give hints about guys who might be under/over rated.
#88550	06/30/2022 2:32:03 pm	Aug 14th, 2055	Ignore
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9778 Haverhill Halflings Legends	Also, Velocity isn't the only thing that results in Ks. Its going to be the overall package. Kingman has a lot higher CoS, which will contribute. But then also there has been chatter than things aren't really linear. Rather a bit exponential, so 20 Velocity is going to result in a lot more Ks than 19. Then again, if a pitchers walks more guys or gives up a lot of hits, they will have less opportunity for Ks... And of course you can never know for sure if that guy with 20 Vel really has 20 velocity, or if he is overrated... So there are a lot of variables in play. The only real way to neck down some of that variability is with numbers. Looking at a couple hundred guys rather than a couple guys. Updated Thursday, June 30 2022 @ 2:34:34 pm PDT
#88565	07/01/2022 5:43:26 pm	Aug 21st, 2055	Ignore
Geech Joined: 01/12/2014 Posts: 590 San Luis Obispo Turtles III.4	I share Rock's suspicions that the inferences can't be drawn this tightly. However, if you do want to analyze strikeout rates, I would suggest using K% rather than K/9. One of the flukes of K/9 is that it can reward worse pitching, because allowing baserunners gives a pitcher more batters to face in a given inning and consequently gives them more opportunity to strike out additional hitters per inning pitched. By contrast, K% uses batters faced as the denominator and is a little bit more straightforward of an indicator.
#88567	07/01/2022 7:29:41 pm	Aug 21st, 2055	Ignore
electriceel883 Joined: 05/26/2021 Posts: 1528 Irvine Infernos III.3	Thats a good point, because most of the top K/9 guys I have had havent really been effective: too many hits, walks etc. That being said, how exactly does one calculate K/BF for the minor leagues? Its difficult even for League as BF is not included in pitcher game logs. You have to go to the box score for every game to get it. Unless theres some other way I am unaware of?
#88570	07/02/2022 5:45:04 am	Aug 21st, 2055	Ignore
Geech Joined: 01/12/2014 Posts: 590 San Luis Obispo Turtles III.4	You're right, it looks like there isn't actually a straightforward way to calculate batters faced. I was thinking you could add some stats on the pitching line to get there (like H + BB + HB + IPx3), but that doesn't give you an accurate answer because it doesn't take into account double plays. You could use the slightly inaccurate formula above as a rough proxy, I suppose. That might still be better than K/9.
#88571	07/02/2022 7:41:12 am	Aug 21st, 2055	Ignore
lostraven Joined: 07/02/2016 Posts: 1291 Corvallis Ravens II.1	On a pitcher's stats page, mouse over the VLHB and VLRB numbers, revealing OAB. Batters faced should, in theory, be for a given season: OAB VLHB + OAB VRHB + BB + HB Walks and hit-by-pitches don't count as OABs.
#88573	07/02/2022 12:49:23 pm	Aug 21st, 2055	Ignore
todd Joined: 01/30/2020 Posts: 148 Wellington Phoenix IV.5	Though I'm not sure how accurate this statement is, but I've noticed with fastball pitchers, with Strike Out Pitcher and Unhittable Fastball rating pitchers in particular, that most of them have really atrocious minor league stats until they get that Velocity up close to where it's finished. Now this is generally true of most players, their stats getting better as they get better, but I've found, in my limited experience, that one needs to be really patient with these types, providing their not giving up home runs excessively. Anyone else notice anything like this? This is just a theory. I could be completely wrong. Thanks! Updated Saturday, July 2 2022 @ 12:51:00 pm PDT
#88574	07/02/2022 1:55:54 pm	Aug 21st, 2055	Ignore
electriceel883 Joined: 05/26/2021 Posts: 1528 Irvine Infernos III.3	Well I believe that it is variable. Some players play to their attributes fairly early, others mid-way through development and some not until they are close to developed. I think this is by design to help make the game more unpredicatable.

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