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el_jefe_loco
Joined: 02/25/2015
Posts: 73

Inactive

Broken Bat Baseball
Curious... how much do you read into minor league statistics when projecting success at the big league level?

Example here https://brokenbat.org/player/267105

On paper, Evans doesn't have the bat to make the big league roster... but he's hit at every level through the minors. Do you take a chance on a guy like him, despite a ratings ceiling?
hardhat
Joined: 05/26/2013
Posts: 200

Oceanview Woods Grizzlies
Legends

Broken Bat Baseball
I do put some stock into hitters' minor league batting, particularly AAA. because it can maybe indicate where guys are underrated or overrated.

However, I pretty much never roster guys without a hit comment ("good hitter" at minimum). So I don't love your guy. However, if you're not contending, it would be an interesting academic exercise to call him up and see how he does. Probably platoon vs RHP. If you do, report back!
Rock777
Joined: 09/21/2014
Posts: 9615

Haverhill Halflings
III.1

Broken Bat Baseball
I pay a lot of attention (also with a focus on underrated or overrated players). But I also take the ratings into account. A "Great Hitter" might have 10 Hitting in AAA, but still gain another 7-8 hitting in the majors. While a guy in with no comment isn't going to gain a lot. So he may be just as good a hitter now, but he doesn't have as much room to grow.

Evans is performing really well. Its possible he is a little better than he shows on paper. Maybe some good hidden values too (I see a high RISP). Usually SS is the only position I consider for a no hitting comment. But I have a lot of trouble getting playable 2B.

And Evans has some nice features too. His high OBP indicates he might be able to have some success getting on base even if he can't hit the ball well. But the bigger factor is his VRHP. He has a strong slant towards hitting righties well. That means he can make up some of his weakness when he is hitting right handed pitchers. So he might be useful in a platoon spot vRHP.
el_jefe_loco
Joined: 02/25/2015
Posts: 73

Inactive

Broken Bat Baseball
Thanks guys! Helpful advice
electriceel883
Joined: 05/26/2021
Posts: 1505

Irvine Infernos
III.3

Broken Bat Baseball
A little about me. I took over a severely last place team about 2 weeks ago and will be demoted from 5 to 6 after the season. So I have been trying to get the right players in the minor leagues and improve the outlook for next year, regardless of wins and losses.

Minor league stats AND major league stats I wonder about. Some hitters with Great+ Power+ hitter comments have poor batting career averages and power numbers over a span of several years...this seems to happen a lot more than someone over-performing their technical hit tool. Examples:

BA: https://brokenbat.org/player/220276
Power: https://brokenbat.org/player/225767

They hang onto rosters because of potential and comments but dont pan out at all.

I am sure it means nothing after 22 AB and his first time in the majors, but a guy who's hit tool says he should be hitting very poorly is not. Its not a guy I would even keep if he wasnt hitting, but he's been a valuable platoon player at 3B

https://brokenbat.org/player/249579



Updated Tuesday, June 8 2021 @ 3:57:59 am PDT
Rock777
Joined: 09/21/2014
Posts: 9615

Haverhill Halflings
III.1

Broken Bat Baseball
Hitting is important, but performance is more than just the the Hitting tool. Also ratings can be off, and there are other hidden factors on players.

Rasheed is a nightmare. Every time I see him on waivers I get all excited... then I look at his stats. He had some warning signs in the minors,
but definitely failed hard in the Majors. Minors gives you some good hints, but not every players will translate to the majors. Its up to us to try and figure out which guys will. That is half the fun of the game.
electriceel883
Joined: 05/26/2021
Posts: 1505

Irvine Infernos
III.3

Broken Bat Baseball
Understandable. But since I have only played 2 weeks I want to understand how things work too
Haselrig
Joined: 04/13/2014
Posts: 2790

Novi Doubledays
III.4

Broken Bat Baseball
I found that Broken Bat unfolds for you in stages. There's the up-slope where you get into the game, try to learn as much as possible as quickly as possible and generally figure out how things work. This is the most fun stage.

Then there's the plateau where you apply what you know and adjust that knowledge with experience. You're still learning, but at a much lessened pace. These are your prime seasons. Your enthusiasm and knowledge are both at a high level. This is the most rewarding level as your work really starts to pay off.

Then there's the inevitable down-slope. Your enthusiasm starts to wear a little thin and your knowledge starts to Swiss cheese a bit as you're thinking more about other things. You've honed some good instincts so you can still pull it off pretty well, but you're not quite the competitor you were.

It's a nice arc, overall.


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