Broken Bat - Discussion Forum: Minor League Stats

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Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date	Function

#41499	11/05/2016 12:57:51 am
MukilteoMike Joined: 08/09/2014 Posts: 3294 Inactive	How much do you consider minor league stats? I think they're almost meaningless until AAA. Frankly, I can't even fathom what goes on behind the scenes for those games because the results are bizarre. For example, consider two rookie level pitchers. Pitcher A has skills of 8-6-5-5. Pitcher B has 2-2-5-0. Pitcher A has 7.80 ERA, 5.12 FIP, .342 BAA, 1.948 WHIP. Pitcher B has 3.24 ERA, 3.61 FIP, .259 BAA, 1.44 WHIP. Huh?! Pitcher A has phenomenal skills for rookie ball and is getting obliterated. Pitcher B has almost no skills and is getting by very well. Are we supposed to learn anything from these? I used rookie level examples because the skills are hugely different. If there's any level that should be impacted significantly by skills it's rookie ball. In my examples the skills are 24 vs. 9. That should be huge, right? It is, but in the direction that defies logic. Anyway, as I said above, I really don't even consider minor league stats until AAA regarding success. The only thing I really look at before that is stolen base info for position players. I can't figure out anything by looking at pitchers. Just wondering what everyone else thinks.

#41502	11/05/2016 3:27:44 am
Meccanodonte Joined: 04/21/2014 Posts: 370 Inactive	Has anyone noticed something about e.g. splits and gb/fb for both hitters and pitchers?

#41511	11/05/2016 10:51:24 am
admin Joined: 01/27/2010 Posts: 4985 Administrator	So players (especially pitchers) that will be good big league players may be a bit overmatched at the lower minor league levels. In general, you can get a sense of what type of player they might be and perhaps quality. If you're depending on a AAA player being your Short Stop of the future and he's hitting .205 and has tons of errors...maybe you need a backup plan. Steve

#41521	11/05/2016 12:18:56 pm
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9603 Haverhill Halflings III.1	Yep. I look at a lot of the info. Posted in another post.

#41526	11/05/2016 4:20:58 pm
FreddyTheEye Joined: 11/11/2014 Posts: 625 Inactive	Yep. I look at a lot of the info. Agreed, so do I. I actually find it all very valuable.

#41529	11/05/2016 5:52:20 pm
MukilteoMike Joined: 08/09/2014 Posts: 3294 Inactive	Ugh, great info guys. Thanks.

#41534	11/05/2016 7:33:17 pm
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9603 Haverhill Halflings III.1	This is the other thread I was referencing.

#41535	11/05/2016 9:52:38 pm
MukilteoMike Joined: 08/09/2014 Posts: 3294 Inactive	Thanks, Rock. I hadn't seen that. Well, I saw the thread title when I searched "minor," but I didn't realize it talked about stats. I'll have to do a little research now. It's still a bit difficult since minor league stats haven't been around a long time. I'd like to have at least 400 IP in both minors and majors for comparisons, even if I think stuff below AAA is not very important. I could definitely be wrong. Anyway, you've provided a starting point for me of things to consider. Thanks.

#41558	11/07/2016 10:12:42 am
Dan6176 Joined: 04/30/2016 Posts: 254 Inactive	The more experience a player has, the more I use stats at minor league level. I also look to see if they improve in there second season at a particular level. Scouting reports can be off by 20%, so the stats help me decide if a player is on the + or - side of that 20%. I don't draft players under 12 pot but there are players on my team that are 11 pot that have been effective but they were either inherited when I got my team or a free agent whose stats didn't scare me. Updated Monday, November 7 2016 @ 10:14:06 am PST

#41581	11/07/2016 3:54:20 pm
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9603 Haverhill Halflings III.1	Just realized I only talked about pitchers in that thread. For Hitters, I monitor FPCT, SB, vLHP, vRHP, GB/FB, HR, K/BB. OPS to a lesser extent. When they get up into AAA I start paying more attention to OBP and SLG. I generally find that players GB/FB will spike a bit when they first promote to a new level, and then converge back to a normalized value in their second or third years at that minor level. This can happen in either direction. So I believe you can somewhat predict where their GB/FB is going to end up if you follow their trends through the minors.

#41582	11/07/2016 4:00:32 pm
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9603 Haverhill Halflings III.1	Santa is a particularly nasty example of this. Most guys who start off with 1.60 GB/FB in their first year in A would then slowly drop that number. Santa's number slowly rose. And then dropped dramatically (1.37) his first year in AA. And then slowly rose again. I thought the numbers were just completely random at first. But now I realize he was converging on his naturally (VERY HIGH) GB/FB. I think he misunderstood the meaning of "moon shot"... You can't hit HRs when you hit them straight up... Updated Monday, November 7 2016 @ 4:01:24 pm PST

#41588	11/07/2016 7:17:51 pm
GrizzlyDan Joined: 06/30/2016 Posts: 199 Atlanta Braves IV.2	And then there's this guy. He was scuffling down in Rookie ball when the green arrow indicated he was ready for A ball. Oddly his average jumped UP from .282 to .467 (small sample size alert) in five games. He is averaging an RBI a game with three dingers already. Go figure.

#41591	11/08/2016 4:51:36 am
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9603 Haverhill Halflings III.1	That's a pretty small sample size. I wouldn't read anything into 15 ABs.

#41620	11/09/2016 2:13:04 pm
garfscores Joined: 10/13/2014 Posts: 488 Battle Creek Sting IV.7	@Rock you mean straight down? Wouldn't a 1.75 gb/fb mean he's hitting almost twice as many ground balls as fly balls???

#41623	11/09/2016 2:52:38 pm
newtman Joined: 11/02/2013 Posts: 3343 Inactive	Yeah, I'm guessing he meant that guy likes to hit choppers.

#41625	11/09/2016 4:13:10 pm
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9603 Haverhill Halflings III.1	Yeah, I said that backwards. I wish he hit them up. Without bouncing them first.