Broken Bat - Suggestions: Alternative Draft Process

Forum >> Suggestions >> Alternative Draft Process

Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date

#93639	02/02/2024 5:56:30 pm	Apr 10th, 2063
Annie Oakley Joined: 10/14/2023 Posts: 60 Independence Cavaliers III.2	It's my second time around, but no I wouldn't call myself an expert or an old-hand at BB But I also think it's a bit of a stretch to class a sentence that starts with 'who knows' as purporting to speak for others, but there you go, nothing divides people more than a common language. Speaking only for myself however, I have to admit having played what must be 50 or more of these online sports management sims I tend to think that us enthusiasts in the genre, as a cohort, can be prone to believe we are unlucky in comparison to others - maybe that's just what it is to be human though lol Going through the 2062 draft though I'm now believing that I really am unluckier than everyone else!! [joke] I'm through more than 10% of the leagues now and the scores on the doors so far are: 80% drafted a 13+ POT in the 1st round 75% drafted multiple 13+ POT's across the 8 rounds (a lot didn't draft more than 4 rounds but counted everyone) 3.5% didn't draft a 13+ POT across the 2062 draft I had imagined I'd be saying that only having max POT 12s was more common than forum posters believed, but so far it appears I was wrong. My guess on the drawback of reducing the chance of being unlucky is that it will increase the importance of drafting as soon as the curtain is raised. I genuinely can't recall coming across another game that draws from a finite pool of players on a first come first served basis

#93642	02/02/2024 8:40:42 pm	Apr 10th, 2063
Annie Oakley Joined: 10/14/2023 Posts: 60 Independence Cavaliers III.2	Sorry if formatting goes crazy but have gone through Divs 1-4 in the 2062 draft - so a third of teams but would not surprise me if it was half the draft. Pot:-16-15-14-13-12-11-10-9--8-7-Total RD1---5-28-53-51-23--6--0-0--0-0--166 RD2---1-10-26-61-44-15--6-1--0-0--164 RD3---1--6-21-44-47-27--8-2--1-0--157 RD4---1--3-11-26-49-40--9-3--1-0--143 RD5---0--0--3-11-38-59--8-2--1-0--122 RD6---0--0--2--7-32-42-18-6--4-2--113 RD7---0--0--0--1-11-39-27-9--6-1---94 RD8---0--0--0--4-12-39-28-8-10-1--102 No Draft 3 Total Teams 180 The things that jumped out to me was that 50% of picks in round 1 were 14+ and that you are still close to a 50% chance of picking a 13+ in round 3. Updated Friday, February 2 2024 @ 8:41:54 pm PST Updated Friday, February 2 2024 @ 8:43:33 pm PST Updated Friday, February 2 2024 @ 8:46:36 pm PST

#93643	02/02/2024 9:21:24 pm	Apr 10th, 2063
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9778 Haverhill Halflings Legends	I've had a few season where I didn't get anything higher than POT 12 all season. Also a few season, where I only landed one keeper the entire season. I don't draft and release; when you see one draft pick for Haverhill, its because we looked and chose not to take any of the garbage on the board. I always look every round. POT-wise we have been lucky the last few seasons, but in generally I would say its pretty rare to get more than 2 guys higher than POT 13. But yes, I would say your draft luck as been bad. That is why many of us make suggestion to try and even the distribution of talent a little bit. Its a killer when your high POT player in round 1 is an 11 (or even lower). In terms of the pools, what I had suggested before with a single high POT suggestion was to ignore the pools for that one player. You could do something similar with the 5/10 option. Attempt to get guys from the correct pools, but then just add in additional guys to fill out the 5 if there aren't enough. I'd certainly rather have the higher quality options than be locked into bad players from any given pool. Likelihood with 5 is that you would be able to get a couple guys from the pool anyways. And you always have the other 5 randos from the pool if you are really committed to a novelty team. It is worth noting that POT isn't everything. But its an easy lever to use. For instance, last year Haverhill got "very lucky" and drafted a POT 15, 14, and 13. But all three have "good potential", so likely a couple of those guys will drop in POT. Even if they don't drop, its likely that two of those guys won't make the team. The POT 15 will probably drop to POT 14, but he's still likely to be my future SS. I actually have higher expectations for the POT 11 I just drafted 2nd round this year, than for the POT 14 I drafted 2nd round last year. Updated Friday, February 2 2024 @ 9:29:42 pm PST

#93645	02/03/2024 10:25:15 am	Apr 10th, 2063
electriceel883 Joined: 05/26/2021 Posts: 1528 Irvine Infernos III.3	I wouldnt look at the raw POT of draftees, in many instances it depends on the age of the prospect. HS and 16-17 Latin prospects will have 15-16 POT. Because they have potentially 2 POT adjustments to look forward to. Many Asian Leaguers will will lofty POT but it can be very misleading as only the youngest may have a possible adjustment coming and many of the older ones wont really have the playing time to get there even if they otherwise would (a season or two in the minors gaining little to no SI - because they arent really ready to play). Then they still arent ready to play and get cut because they are 27-28. I just think looking at the higher POT is largely futile. If 16 range is 128 SI, there are just 11 players in all of Broken Bat (28 or younger) that have reached that Range. There are less than 100 players that have reached the 15 range (not including those 16's). So your 16 is really a 15 or even a 14. It is extremely difficult for most players to get past the 1-teens simply because most players cap out somewhere first. I have been more excited by the really strong 12 POT that I know will become a 13 than many of the empty profile 14's I see. That said I support a floor of some type. If there could be some pool segregation prior to rounds that would be great.

#93650	02/03/2024 5:46:04 pm	Apr 14th, 2063
Annie Oakley Joined: 10/14/2023 Posts: 60 Independence Cavaliers III.2	POT is the only thing you can use to look at to compare overall. Even if you could go through every player it becomes subjective. While I get that POT isn't necessarily everything, or even the most important thing, the tale of teams picks doesn't lie - higher POTs are favoured - and that's probably due to there being a strong correlation to them being (or looking like being at least) the best players on peoples Boards.

#93651	02/03/2024 6:36:32 pm	Apr 14th, 2063
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9778 Haverhill Halflings Legends	Certainly the higher POTs will be better on average. But some teams value it too much. And then they pick up a POT 15 SS with 5 a Hitting cap, who ends up in FA after a few years. Also, worth considering that most POT 15 are actually overrated, and drop in POT after a few seasons. To me a good POT 12 is a starter (even POT 11s can be solid at DH & RP), POT 13s are good players. POT 14s+ are either unicorns, overrated, or defensive genius's who can't hit. That is why I would love to have some guarantee that we get a few POT 12s or higher to choose from in round 1. That means we have real choice, and the draft becomes a bit more skill based instead of entirely luck based.

#93652	02/03/2024 6:46:33 pm	Apr 14th, 2063
electriceel883 Joined: 05/26/2021 Posts: 1528 Irvine Infernos III.3	Just because people DO draft the higher POT doesnt mean they should, or that they are good. Right now there are thirteen 14 POT's available on waivers or FA. All were drafted in the first 3 rounds but 1. (Agosto). Some may have been available earlier and passed on. Its the same story if you are a regular on waivers - throughout the season - fielding guys who have 90-100 SI with hitting tools about 8 or so. Some people dream a little too much on draft day, others may not be aware of the graphs tracking the progess of hitting or some other reason. Look at the guys with 105 SI or so on waivers (not 34-35)/FA and ask yourself, how bad did they need to fail to get cut? Then ask yourself why they have 20 claims. Evaluation is a big part of this game and many people dont. They see a number and feel like its their lucky day. Same for the draft.

#93653	02/03/2024 6:50:31 pm	Apr 14th, 2063
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9778 Haverhill Halflings Legends	Haverhill went 20 years before drafting a POT 15. After the change in the draft (with fuzzy POT), there are a lot more pseudo POT 15s, so they are more common. In the last 20 seasons Haverhill has drafted 7 POT 15s & 1 POT 16 (as late as the 5th round). Of those 5 (probably 6) were overrated. With the exception of two pitchers (who were overrated), they are all defensive genius's who can't hit. Palmer is the best of the bunch with a career .228 AVG, .975 FP, and a noodle arm for SS. I'm relatively happy with him, but he isn't really a game changer. Conversely, I picked up 12 POT Shi Woo Kim as an uncontested claim. As a 12 POT he was way more impactful than any 15 POT I've ever had on the team. electriceel is on the money about evaluation. Your low POT numbers are probably a little bit of a combination of poor luck and good evaluation. Have you even passed up a hopelessly bad POT 14 in favor of a good POT 12? Because many people would never do that. Your last draft pick looked like a smart evaluation to me. Imagine you have these two players (at age 20) on your 1st round board. Which one would you take? Edgar Cisneros (14 POT SS) Cary Yan (12 POT LF) If you chose Edgar, then congratulations on your new SS! He is waiting for you in FA. I would estimate that at least 90% of people playing this game would have taken the POT 14 (not me). Updated Saturday, February 3 2024 @ 7:25:19 pm PST

#93654	02/03/2024 8:20:14 pm	Apr 14th, 2063
Annie Oakley Joined: 10/14/2023 Posts: 60 Independence Cavaliers III.2	I am not disagreeing with what either of you are saying - I'm just saying POT is the best way you can analyse it with the data that is available. I do think you're a little harsh on your fellow managers - the rates are based on Divs 1-4 so not many newbies and are consistent throughout the 4 divisions. I'd like to think the Legend managers didn't get to the top by just blindly selecting the top POTs and getting lucky All it was meant to help illustrate is the expectations you should have about each round of the draft in terms of POT, which regardless of whether it is determined rationally or irrationally appears to be important to managers judging from their picks. That's not surprising when you look at the top rosters there is also a heavy reliance on players that have a higher POT than 12 - 22 13+ to 6 12s in the majors roster of the champion team for example The 13+ POT you get on your 1st round board could be a dud, but the data shows that you should at least expect to see one, and should feel reasonably unlucky not to be able to consider a POT 14+

#93661	02/04/2024 9:12:05 am	Apr 14th, 2063
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9778 Haverhill Halflings Legends	Yes I think we are all on the same page. A more even POT distribution in round 1 is a step that helps even out talent distribution and makes the draft less luck based. My best POT 11 first rounder just popped to 13! Unfortunately he is the rare case. An addendum to the above, Christian is my best POT 11 draftee, but Lance Hill is an even more impressive first round POT 12 draftee. I just wasn't the one who drafted him. There were only 6 claims on Hill though; which confounds me almost as much as being the solo claimant on Kim. Similar to Christian popping an extra point into POT 13 territory this season, Hill popped an extra point into POT 14 territory last season. My team would probably be LL-V if I had to rely on draft luck for players, LOL. Updated Sunday, February 4 2024 @ 12:54:50 pm PST