Broken Bat - Discussion Forum: Study on pitchers

Forum >> Discussions >> Study on pitchers

Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date

#81121	04/17/2021 5:20:21 am	Jan 13th, 2050
jamanys Joined: 09/18/2018 Posts: 44 Inactive	And here is in french, if you want to translate it yourself because my translation sucks. Salut les gars, Je ne sais pas si vous vous souvenez de moi, mais il y a 2 ou 3 saisons je parlais un peu dans le forum. Vu que c’est l’intersaison j’ai décidé de faire une petite étude juste pour le fun. Les résultats sont à prendre avec des pincettes. Je vais écrire cette étude en Français car c’est ma langue natale et aussi en anglais pour que vous puissiez comprendre plus facilement. Alors déjà j’ai pris les 100 pitchers actuels de la Legends League. Et j’ai ensuite mis dans un Excel leurs notes et leurs statistiques dans un tableau. Pour chacun des attribues suivant j’ai calculé la corrélation avec l’ERA que j’ai multiplié par 100 pour rendre le résultat plus visuel : ERA/AGE : -22,3 ERA/EXP : -21,3 ERA/VEL : -6,1 ERA/CoS : 0,2 ERA/MOV : -26,8 ERA/CON : -5,1 ERA/STA : 10,4 ERA/Fld : -1,5 ERA/Rng :1,3 ERA/ARM : 10,1 ERA/FIP : 60,5 ERA/BAA: 65,2 ERA/WHIP: 69,8 ERA/ST%: -24 Donc pour bien comprendre ce qu’est la corrélation, il faut savoir que c’est un indicateur qui montre à quel point quand X augmente Y augmente. Donc quand le ERA augmente à quel point la statistique actuelle augmente. Donc pour les statistiques comme ÂGE, EXP, VEL, Cos, MOV, CON, STA, FLD, RNG, ARM, ST% plus la corrélation est négative mieux c’est. Cependant pour les statistiques comme FIP, BAA, WHIP plus la corrélation est positive mieux c’est. On voit donc bien que la statistique la plus importante est le mouvement. En ce qui concerne l’Age ça me parait normal car plus l’Age augmente plus le joueur a eu le temps de progresse et d’avoir de meilleur note. J’ai ensuite fait pareil pour le FIP, BAA et WHIP. J’ai fait la moyenne de tous les résultats et donc je vous fais le classement des notes qui influe le plus sur la qualité de votre joueur selon moi. -VEL 17,6 (Enorme impact sur le BAA) -MOV 17,4 (Enorme impact sur l’ERA et le FIP) -CON 10,5 (Gros impact sur le FIP et WHIP) -Fld 8,7 (je ne sais pas pourquoi mais à un gros impact positif sur la BAA et donc le WHIP) - STA -1,4 (probablement dû au fait qu'un joueur avec une grosse STA va être plus souvent poussé à sa limite d’énergie) - CoS -2,6 (impact négatif sur le FIP mais impact positif sur le WHIP) -Rng -3,6 (Pour RNG et ARM c’est probablement dû au fait que si le joueur progresse dans s'attribue là il ne progresse pas ailleurs et donc les joueurs avec des fortes notes ici, vont être plus faible dans les autres) -Arm -12,9 j'espère que cela pourra vous aider pour votre recrutement cet "été". je ne sais pas du tout si quelqu'un à déjà fait une étude comme celle ci (probablement). Mais au moins elle serra mise-à-jours. Merci d'avoir lu Et surtout n'hésiter pas si vous avez des questions ou voulez des précisions

#81156	04/17/2021 5:13:15 pm	Jan 13th, 2050
tamale Joined: 02/19/2018 Posts: 357 Concord Jets Legends	Thank you - great work! That is very interesting - mostly lines up with how I've tried to build my team and my advice for others. If I'm interpreting this correctly then MOV, VEL, and CON are all important, but CoS has no impact whatsoever. Although I suspect my players were involved in the calculations so might be polluting the data set! I'd be very interested to see the results for hitters. I suspect Hit, PD, and Power are all quite important, with bat control a distant 4th - still don't know what it does. I guess another thing for teams to keep in mind is that performance is likely based on the group of attributes as a whole, rather than just a linear combination of them.

#81160	04/17/2021 9:31:24 pm	Jan 13th, 2050
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9592 Haverhill Halflings III.1	Nice work, although I am a bit suspicious of the CoS thing. Possibly just a small sample size. Or fewer really strong CoS pitchers due to lack of scouting report. I don't think the relationship is exactly linear. Two pitchers with 15 CoS aren't as good as one guy with 20 Velocity. Best guess at this point is: Bat Control = Contact Hitting = Positioning (Control) I would imagine PD has a high influence on walks, medium influence on Ks, but low influence on hits. BC probably has a stronger influence on Ks and hits. And hitting would primarily impact Hits. Updated Saturday, April 17 2021 @ 9:34:05 pm PDT

#81161	04/18/2021 12:59:31 am	Jan 13th, 2050
jamanys Joined: 09/18/2018 Posts: 44 Inactive	Hi guys, Thank you a lot for your returns, I pick pitchers from the 8 teams who haven't been relegated. so only 100 pitchers. I can't take pitchers from league down below beacause pitchers will have probably worse "grade"/"Attributes" but better statistics because the level of the batters. I will do the same for batting for sure this morning (so this night for you) and probably in defense but not sur of the result for this Updated Sunday, April 18 2021 @ 2:31:43 am PDT

#81162	04/18/2021 1:32:14 am	Jan 13th, 2050
tamale Joined: 02/19/2018 Posts: 357 Concord Jets Legends	@Rock I've read about those theories and they make sense, but the instruction manual isn't exactly clear about what it is. The only thing I can say with any confidence is that high BC seems to reduce strikeouts. So maybe it gives you some more BIP, but most of them won't end up as hits anyway (maybe only 30%), especially if the Hit tool isn't there. From when I played OOTP I remember a strange batting skill "Avoiding K's" that I mostly just ignored, and in my head BC is basically that. And I'm sure there's no way CoS actually harms performance, but have a few ideas for what's going on here: Managers over-rating it and thus rostering pitchers with high CoS, that otherwise aren't actually good, and giving them too many chances. Low CoS pitchers are possibly more likely to be relievers - I believe there is some TTO penalty in the game (see "Starter versus Reliever" in the manual), and the CoS guys could be left in too long - see also the apparent stamina penalty (also not sure if the data was adjusted for IP). On a related note, in BB I don't think there's much penalty for pulling the SP early, due to the huge number of innings relievers can throw without getting tired. My best guess for what CoS actually does is that it affects contact quality (hence no effect on FIP, but reduced WHIP). This is probably useful but I don't think it should be a primary consideration. IRL I think I've read that "soft-contact" pitchers are mostly just a mirage...

#81168	04/18/2021 6:42:09 am	Jan 13th, 2050
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9592 Haverhill Halflings III.1	I agree that the manual is very confusing regarding BC. Although if it is Contact, I think it will also impact AVG. Ks for sure depress AVG, but I also think Contact would mean more foul balls. That's why I go for a smaller foul territory in my park. High Contact plus a smaller foul territory "should" result in better batting averages. Conversely, a good Eye (PD) will draw more walks. But without good Contact it won't help you get more hits. So it will likely have a large impact on OBP, but only a small impact to AVG. Given H > BB but a K > DP, I should definitely be prioritizing PD over BC. But I prioritize BC for the same reason you don't Not sure what it really means... Maybe BC is more important for groundball guys (to avoid DPs). And of course my guys are all high BC fly ball pitchers... LOL. Updated Sunday, April 18 2021 @ 6:49:51 am PDT

#81218	04/20/2021 7:37:44 pm	Jan 22nd, 2050
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9592 Haverhill Halflings III.1	Another thing that makes measurements difficult is the fuzziness in the ratings. Take Mark "Baby Face" Bearden. Given his level of performance and the "exceptional" curveball rating, its quite obvious that his Movement is being under-reported. But if you just looked at his ratings, you would assume his performance was based entirely on his high Control. Other players with similar ratings (on paper) would not perform anywhere near his level. Under the hood, his Movement is probably just as high as his Control.

#87479	04/01/2022 5:54:23 pm	Jun 27th, 2054
Jobywan Joined: 04/08/2020 Posts: 54 Makakilo Eruption Legends	quiet night, looking up some old discussions. Does this study actually teach that 'arm' is important for pitching? This would be intuitive, but I thought that was more for fielders than pitchers.

#87482	04/01/2022 6:08:31 pm	Jun 27th, 2054
hardhat Joined: 05/26/2013 Posts: 200 Oceanview Woods Grizzlies Legends	Does this study actually teach that 'arm' is important for pitching? No, in the poster's sample the ERA/Arm correlation was .1 so the correlation is basically zero; arm and ERA were not related

#87484	04/02/2022 7:19:13 am	Jun 27th, 2054
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9592 Haverhill Halflings III.1	He showed 10.1 for Arm versus ERA, and -12.9 for Arm in the overall impact score. So I think it mostly shows how much variance you can get in this size sample set for a variable that doesn't have significant impact. I think Arm might have a very very small impact on outs, as I imagine the pitcher's arm has a very very small weighting for the infield Arm score.