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ID Thread Poster Date & Time
#81858 Forum >> Discussions >> The Venting Thread JV-Tosshin 05/15/2021 2:58:40 pm
When you've got a Leftie pitcher who's so erratic with his flyballs that he either goes for a CG shutout or is yanked in the top of the 3rd after surrendering 4 runs on 2 homers.
#81859 Forum >> Leagues >> II.1 Rock777 05/15/2021 3:15:03 pm
FIP is a worthless stat.
#81860 Forum >> Discussions >> The Venting Thread Seca 05/16/2021 3:56:27 am
When you are evaluating your P prospects and can't shake the feeling that Baxter is going to be a better player than Lovelace.

(Both have dropped potential).
#81861 Forum >> Discussions >> The Venting Thread Geech 05/16/2021 8:19:38 am
Lovelace is frustrating to look at, and he's not even my player. That being said, I don't really trust minor league stats anymore, so odds are they're both going to disappoint.
#81862 Forum >> Leagues >> II.1 NotGood88 05/16/2021 8:54:45 am

Then there is this guy with great minors stats who I think will get waived in order to keep Kike:

http://brokenbat.org/player/235464/M



Gotta give Kike a big shoutout, otherwise, I never woulda gotten Canizares ;)
#81863 Forum >> Leagues >> II.1 Ced 05/16/2021 2:55:35 pm
Hope he fits into your organization! 😎
#81864 Forum >> Leagues >> II.1 Rock777 05/16/2021 5:15:57 pm
That loop was better. Just have to hope Shamokin doesn't sweep me back to a -24 RD again...
#81865 Forum >> Leagues >> II.2 Geech 05/16/2021 5:47:21 pm
Here's where we stand after the second loop. The numbers are wins, losses and then run differential.

The Aces are kicking butt and taking names. They've built a ton of separation already in the West. It's them, a clump of mediocrity, and then the Turtles.

1 Norman Aces, 24, 9, 77
2 Detroit Tigers, 17, 17, 8
3 Waipahu Indians, 17, 17, -17
4 Brentwood Bearcats, 16, 17, -3
5 Novi Doubledays, 14, 19, 6
6 San Luis Obispo Turtles, 12, 21, -71

1 Augusta Trojans, 20, 13, 19
2 Orlando Orcas, 18, 16, 9
3 Ft. Lauderdale Buccaneers, 17, 16, 34
4 Saratoga Highlanders, 17, 17, 2
5 Sunrise Octopuses, 14, 19, -25
6 Ames Aces, 14, 19, -39
#81866 Forum >> Leagues >> II.1 Rock777 05/16/2021 5:56:21 pm
Kind of amazing that Solana can perform at this level with only draftees on the team. I have a grand total of 7 homegrown on my roster (4 batter, 3 pitchers). I can't imagine fielding a competitive team through the draft alone...
#81867 Forum >> Leagues >> II.1 hurstdm 05/16/2021 8:23:48 pm
Halflings: Kind of amazing that Solana can perform at this level with only draftees on the team.

Amazing.

FIP is a worthless stat.

Disagree, but you've got us thinking. And we're pretty m***ing sad and angry right now at the state of things the last few seasons. Yet another April/May where the team refuses to hit and/or pitch. If anyone wants to offer some encouragement we'd appreciate it.

We've been here since 2035. Over 2035-49, the team ERA is about 4.35 and the team FIP is about 4.32. ERA has essentially followed FIP over the long haul, as expected. This is true even with the huge hitting Cowabungalow. But, startlingly, we've had just one year since 2042 where ERA has been on the good side of FIP. Here's the whole chart if you want (if it fonts up):

ERA FIP
2035 3.80 4.07 0.27
2036 4.53 4.48 -0.05
2037 4.14 4.44 0.30
2038 4.06 4.22 0.16
2039 4.07 4.32 0.25
2040 3.73 3.84 0.11
2041 4.45 4.47 0.02
2042 4.37 4.34 -0.03
2043 4.81 4.44 -0.37
2044 4.15 4.10 -0.05
2045 4.97 4.39 -0.58
2046 4.16 3.99 -0.17
2047 4.09 4.37 0.28
2048 5.04 4.82 -0.22
2049 4.93 4.57 -0.36

4.35 4.32 -0.03

Our batting average 2035-49 is .281 with a RISP of .288. We've always said a team's RISP in Broken Bat tends to be about 10 points higher than average. Whole chart again:

AVG RISP
2035 0.315 0.335 0.020
2036 0.293 0.301 0.008
2037 0.264 0.277 0.013
2038 0.275 0.279 0.004
2039 0.296 0.305 0.009
2040 0.285 0.284 -0.001
2041 0.265 0.271 0.006
2042 0.287 0.290 0.003
2043 0.279 0.298 0.019
2044 0.282 0.294 0.012
2045 0.263 0.282 0.019
2046 0.282 0.287 0.005
2047 0.290 0.279 -0.011
2048 0.249 0.243 -0.006
2049 0.283 0.300 0.017

0.281 0.288 0.008

Prior to 2043, the Moo Cows didn't have a season where the FIP and RISP were too tilted against us. From 2045 onwards, these stats have tilted against us one way or another in every season! In 2047, we finally got on the right side of FIP, but the RISP was miserable. Based on that year, we think a team can overcome a troubling RISP, but are most teams with an ERA seriously lagging behind FIP probably in last place? And that's just luck? Does the defense in Broken Bat get hot and cold? Seems to. Is our defense bad? I doubt it.

We hear ya, Ravens. Welcome to 2050, where the Cow ERA is a full point behind the FIP (5.29 vs. 4.29)! Welcome to 2050, where the Cow RISP is 38 points behind batting average (.269 vs. .231)! Can't win like that, but can't do anything about it! Hooray! It seems like this happens to us every year. High hopes, horrible April/May, crushed hopes. We're pretty demoralized about the last few seasons.

Meanwhile the Concord Jets haven't had a season where ERA was higher than FIP since 2033. Splain that?

Whine, whine, whine. We know, we know.


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