Broken Bat - Help: How much is enough ?

Forum >> Help >> How much is enough ?

Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date

#91886	06/20/2023 6:52:48 am	Apr 21st, 2060
MacHatter Joined: 02/17/2023 Posts: 36 Kihei Stingrays IV.1	How many innings or at bats do you give a player in order to get a sense of what their long-term performance will be? For example, if I am signing a free agent, and I see he has pitched only 15 innings last season, is that enough to spot a trend? 30? How many at bats does a hitter need before you make a call? 50? 100? I appreciate there is a significant degree of randomness in making a prediction, but I assume the more data, the better the prediction. So much is enough?

#91888	06/20/2023 9:32:06 am	Apr 21st, 2060
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9604 Haverhill Halflings III.1	More is always better. I definitely wouldn't draw any conclusions from 15 innings. It also depends if they are still improving, or if they are declining. But I would probably want at least 50 innings before I am really drawing conclusions about performance.

#91892	06/20/2023 1:37:33 pm	Apr 21st, 2060
electriceel883 Joined: 05/26/2021 Posts: 1505 Irvine Infernos III.3	I'd say parts of 3 seasons is my sample size. Had players be garbage even with all their SI and waited it out with good results in a couple of instances. Its how the game tricks you. They want you to lose patience and drop guys on waivers that become stars for other teams! Dont let it win! Seen too many "bad" seasons by people that will turn in 3 strong ones in a row to get too stuck on part of a season. Some guys, yes, do get the axe, but I assume this is more about fresh callups

#91893	06/20/2023 7:26:09 pm	Apr 25th, 2060
MacHatter Joined: 02/17/2023 Posts: 36 Kihei Stingrays IV.1	Actually, it's about everyone! Seasoned players, prospects, potential free agents ... anyone whose performance I'm trying predict based on limited amount of IP or AB. What's a statistically viable figure that will, with 'some' degree of accuracy, help me in the decision to hire or fire?

#91894	06/20/2023 7:37:15 pm	Apr 25th, 2060
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9604 Haverhill Halflings III.1	I don't know if there is a "correct" answer. Each person has their own opinion. I would say that you need to give a longer leash (more data) for young and developing guys. While I would give a shorter leash to guys who are starting to decrease in skills. It also depends a lot on how they did in the minors. You can get a lot of track history in the minors. If a guy has a good minors history, or is like at POT 14, then I am more likely to give a longer leash. If I have another good prospect being blocked by a guy, he will get a tighter leash. I would say that you want at least a year of performance before you can feel any confidence. But for an older guy, it might be right to pull the trigger after only .25 of a season. And as Electric pointed out, sometimes guys can have one or two "off" seasons that make it hard to get a read. So you really just need to make your own call. But if you want a general rule. I would say if you have less than 1 full seasons worth of data, you don't really have a complete picture of the guy. The more experience you get playing the game, the more you will start to see patterns emerge that give you more confidence in making cuts with less data. But definitely don't ignore the minor league stats. Minor league stats don't translate directly into major league performance, but you can get a LOT of data out of the minor league stats. Updated Tuesday, June 20 2023 @ 7:40:50 pm PDT

#91899	06/21/2023 9:24:38 am	Apr 25th, 2060
MacHatter Joined: 02/17/2023 Posts: 36 Kihei Stingrays IV.1	Thanks gentlemen. I am realizing more and more that this game requires "patience"! Cheers

#91900	06/21/2023 11:11:31 am	Apr 25th, 2060
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9604 Haverhill Halflings III.1	Certainly some patience as you build up the team. But the good news is that this is one of the few management games I've played that doesn't give advantages for seniority. A team which isn't constantly maintained can quickly fall back down the pyramid. It will take some time to make the team your own, but its possible to compete at the highest levels with some skill and some luck.