Broken Bat - Baseball Forum: Improved Offensive Stats

Forum >> Baseball >> Improved Offensive Stats

Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date	Function

#4341	08/22/2013 9:38:57 am
Mig2012 Joined: 09/26/2012 Posts: 547 Inactive	I’ve been thinking about offensive statistics in baseball and I’ve realized there’s much room for improvement. For instance, right now, the best stat to evaluate the individual offensive contribution of a player is OPS, because it combines in one number all the relevant things a player does as a batter: hits, walks and extra bases. But, to me, that’s not enough. For starters, OPS leaves out all the offensive contribution of a player as a base runner, like for example, stolen bases, and that is a lot being left out. So, I’ve decided to come up with a new stat that gathers all of that into only one single number. Here it is: Per At Bat: Hits + Doubles * 2 + Triples * 3 + HR * 4 + Walks + Stolen bases + Extra Bases Run What does it all mean? Basically I started by decomposing the OPS formula, and then I reconstructed it adding the base running variables. The only thing I changed from the original OPS formula was the removal of the double counting of hits, as they were present in both OBP and SLG. So, basically, the first part of the new formula is just SLG + Walks/AB. On to base running, I decided to include not only the stolen bases, but also the extra bases run, like running from 1st base to 3rd on a single hit. So I’ve added stolen bases and extra bases run to the formula. To clarify the extra bases run, one point is added for every base reached beyond the base the runner was expected to reach. In the example I gave, there’s 1 extra base run, because, on a single hit, the runner is only expected to reach second. Now, the tricky part about including base running is to include not also the good, the successful base running, but also the bad, like being caught stealing, being thrown out while trying to get from 1st to 3rd on a single, and even things like being picked off the base, or being tagged out on any situation where the runner is to blame for. So, how do we do it? Well, not by looking at the box score at the end of the game. To get this precious new stat it’s necessary to collect the numbers looking at everything that happened to the player since the moment he entered the batter box to the moment he returned to the dugout, either after scoring or after being put out. To handle base running properly it’s necessary to take into consideration that conquering bases is a risky thing, which means it can jeopardize everything a player did before, in that at bat. What I’m saying is, if a runner is put out by his own fault, everything he did in that at bat is disregarded. For example, if a player singles and gets caught while trying to steal 2nd after, not only does he not get the steal, but he also loses the hit. It’s not taken into account in the formula. That’s why you can’t build this formula just by looking at the box score. Now, all this is about the individual performance of a player, but, baseball is a team’s game, so you have to take into account what effect the offensive contribution of a player has in the score. I mean, what good is a double hit, if it drives no runs? This is not a new concept, and there is already a stat that covers this aspect. I’m talking about RBI, and there is room for improvement in this stat too. For starters, RBIs need to start being counted per at bat as well. It’s not fair to compare RBI of players who haven’t had the same number of at bats, never mind games played. One other thing to take into account is what I’m going to call RBI opportunities (RBIo). I mean, depending on the strength of the team or the position a player hits, he may be in advantage over other players. For example, a player in the 4th spot in a good team is certainly going to have more RBI chances than a lead-off hitter in a poor team, and that needs to be taken in consideration as well. To do this, every time a player is at bat he has an RBIo of 1 + the number of runners at bases. But that’s not all, while I’m at it I might as well include the productive at bats that end with an out, for example, a fly out that gets a man from second to third. To do this, RBIs needs to be converted into BBIs (Bases Batted In). So, instead of counting productivity in terms of runs driven, we do it in a better way, using bases instead. The formula is actually very simple: Per AB: BBI/BBIo Just remember, if the bases are loaded the BBIo for the batter is 10 (4+3+2+1). And that’s it. I think these two improved stats cover pretty much everything offensively. I wish it was this easy to improve defensive stats...

#4346	08/22/2013 9:57:47 am
admin Joined: 01/27/2010 Posts: 5024 Administrator	Okay, so you think we need to start collecting Extra Bases Run, RBI Opportunities and Bases Batted In & Opportunities? Are their formal definitions for these statistics somewhere – for example, if I do a search for Extra Bases Run, I don’t see much come up. Thanks, Steve

#4352	08/22/2013 5:30:20 pm
Mig2012 Joined: 09/26/2012 Posts: 547 Inactive	I doubt there are formal definitions for these statistics, because these are ideas I came up with, not something I picked up from somewhere else. Anyway, this was meant more as a baseball discussion, not exactly a suggestion to change the game, but if you liked these improved stats enough to put them in the game, I'm cool with that. The game logs have all the necessary data to build these stats.

#4353	08/23/2013 12:26:16 am
AmUnRA Joined: 06/17/2012 Posts: 299 Inactive	i dont like any stats which should rate a player which involves or are heavily influenced by team mates. its not the fault/archievement of the player if the bases are empty or loaded. But this would be a good stat for a team to show how good they bring in their base runners.