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Toon Squad
Joined: 07/21/2015
Posts: 255

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Hi all!

I recently did my midterm AP Statistics projects on investigating relationships, and the relationships I looked at were wins vs. runs scored and payroll vs. Runs scored in MLB teams. Using a RNG, I selected 5 teams from each of the past ten years, and collected their total wins, runs scored, and opening day payroll. I found that runs scored are a better predictor of wins than payroll, but they are still a very weak predictor.

I don't have the exact data with me, as my project is still being graded, but here is what I remember, in terms of stat values.


Wins vs runs scored- r=.41, r^2=.17, Std.dev of the residuals=9.6 wins

Wins vs payroll- r=.17, r^2= .07, Std.dev of the residuals=10.5 wins.

Just something interesting I thought I would share! I will post all of the data when my project is returned to me!

Thanks for reading,

Toon.
Spoonerific
Joined: 01/17/2013
Posts: 339

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This sounds very interesting to me [I'm a Microbio/Biotech grad heading toward Medical Sci school... all I deal with is numbers and relations].

Did you pick all the same 5 teams each seasons or did you select a new group each year?
Toon Squad
Joined: 07/21/2015
Posts: 255

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I selected a new crop each year, numbering the teams 01-30 based on standings and using the RNG. I didn't want a team like the Yankees screwing with payroll, or the As for that matter.
Spoonerific
Joined: 01/17/2013
Posts: 339

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Yeah, that's the issue with MLB there isn't a terribly large sample size when it comes to teams and one or two somewhat floundering organizations like the Yankees or Dodgers on one side of the curve or the Marlins and Rays on the other side.

It's a pretty interesting exercise, I wish I got to do stuff like that in high school.
Toon Squad
Joined: 07/21/2015
Posts: 255

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I'm glad I got to! It was a very interesting project.
MukilteoMike
Joined: 08/09/2014
Posts: 3294

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Three things:

1. Cool project.
2. I would have expected runs to be more of a factor than payroll for many reasons. I'm actually surprised it isn't separated by more. Then again, runs scored completely ignores pitching, so it makes sense that the gap isn't great.
3. What in the world are you doing turning in the only copy/form of your paper?! 😛 You did save it on a computer somewhere, right?
Toon Squad
Joined: 07/21/2015
Posts: 255

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I did save it, but I don't have all of the information on that copy. I turned in the final edited copy on Google classroom, which in turn locks me from it while the teacher is grading it. I should have that returned to me by Wednesday.

I am thinking of doing a project for fun looking at runs scored and runs allowed, seeing which one is more closely associated with wins. If I do that, I will make sure to post it here as well!
Spoonerific
Joined: 01/17/2013
Posts: 339

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It is pretty common [sadly] these days to have single final draft [especially in the science writing field]. The more copies floating the more likely you're data could get poached. Again, it is sad but common... I figured you were just getting exposed to that side of the world of infomatics.


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