Broken Bat - Discussion Forum: Luck?

Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date	Function

#4988	10/18/2013 2:30:34 pm
LCabral23 Joined: 08/19/2012 Posts: 95 Inactive	How much luck is involved in a players batting average? I'm asking because I have players with 18/19 hitting "scores" who had lower averages than players with 11/12 "scores" last season. And I'm talking like a .030 or more difference in average, which I consider to not be a small amount.

#4998	10/18/2013 6:29:42 pm
sross78 Joined: 06/10/2013 Posts: 31 Inactive	im sure there are many factors like R/L pitcher matchups or quality of competition but i can say for sure that all the sluggers (11-15 hit skill) on my team are currently hitting for insane avg's and the top hitting skill players are way down in avg for me too, for the most part. i run an almost exclusive R/L pitcher matchup with the exception of 1-2 18+ rated hitters so maybe its an early season aberation but when its a team wide phenomenon who knows. the four most powerful hitters on my team all have avg's of .355 to .419 which i would expect more around .220-280 from them. Updated Friday, October 18 2013 @ 6:31:23 pm PDT

#5000	10/18/2013 6:42:54 pm
Crunchtime Joined: 05/23/2013 Posts: 141 Inactive	In order to keep games random, programmers use random number generators, run it through an algorithm of some kind and end up with a result. Based on the result of the numbers, you end up with the result of the AB. So, yes, there's an element of 'luck', but better yet randomness. However, stats can sway your results, especially over long periods of time. A good hitter can have a bad year or two and vice versa. There is one thing also to take into account. It's hitter vs. pitcher. If the pitcher isn't very good, your results can be better. Play against a number of teams with mediocre pitchers and you can have super years. Take http://brokenbat.org/player/33199 for instance. I'm marvelling at his output. Leads most major categories of everything. He's a good hitter but not godly. However, he's in a division of mainly cpu teams and overall the pitching quality is poor to average. Yet, if you look at his historical numbers, they're about right IMHO. Updated Friday, October 18 2013 @ 6:43:31 pm PDT Updated Friday, October 18 2013 @ 6:44:04 pm PDT

#5047	10/21/2013 1:01:35 pm
admin Joined: 01/27/2010 Posts: 4985 Administrator	Yes, we use a random number generator (electronic dice) much in the same way Strat-O-Matic Baseball uses real dice to determine hits and outs. One challenging issue, that Crunchtime has highlighted, is that there is a large disparity between leagues. Pitching in the top two or three levels really tends to dominate. Further down the league structure, an above average hitter can often post pretty good stats because the pitching is spotty. Keep in mind, there is also the issue of scouting inaccuracy, especially for inexperience players. Just because a player has a skill level that looks awesome, doesn’t mean he will always perform to that level. This can account for some of the gap…although the different between an 18/19 and an 11/12 is more than scouting variation. Additionally, as sross78 points out, there are hidden values like R/L splits that affect a players overall statistics. Steve