Broken Bat - Discussion Forum: Pitching or offense/defense which is valued more?

Forum >> Discussions >> Pitching or offense/defense which is valued more?

Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date

#90582	01/08/2023 9:47:43 am	Mar 18th, 2058
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9601 Haverhill Halflings III.1	I have mostly built my team out of waivers because drafting is unreliable. I do always draft because sometimes you come away with a winner, but you need to do both to build a great team. Absolutely there are a number of factors in play when it comes to HRs. First thing to note is that "prolific slugger" in a scouting report is really just a comment on the player's Power. If their other abilities don't align they may never actually hit any HRs. It worth looking at their minor league stats to try and understand if they are going to hit HRs at the major league level. If they can't hit them in the minors, don't expect anything in the majors. Things you have some control over Player Skills Don't overlook Hitting. If a guy can't make contact with the ball, they can't hit HRs. Schwarz for instance has good BC and PD to help him keep his OPS decent, but is unlikely to ever hit a lot of HRs because he can't make good contact. I also think BC is important for getting a clean hit on the ball, but I have seen some very prolific guys with low BC. Player Hidden Attributes Some guys hit the ball up, some guys hit more line drives, and some guys nail the ball into the ground. Don't expect any HRs from that last bunch. Looking at a guy like Valenzuela; he will hit some HRs, but he will never be a really big HR hitter because he hits too many balls on the ground (1.40 GB/FB). Also doesn't help that he is bad at Hitting. Heredia on the other hand is a decent HR hitter. He has an extreme GB/FB (0.64). A guy like that is hitting a lot of fly balls (see ballparks below). Heredia again is a little lacking on Hitting, so that depresses his numbers a bit. Your Ballpark Different hitters will do better in different parks. Extreme GB/FB guys like Heredia will do best in a small park with close fences. He doesn't care about fence height. He can hit HRs even if the fences are 25 tall. Norm Norman is a little more normal Norm actually does still have a low GB/FB profile, but he is closer to neutral, so fence height will effect him a little more. The higher the GB/FB gets, the more fence height comes into play. Guys with very high GB/FBs (like Lynch) will do best in a very large park with low fences. Your park is built great for Lynch, but less so for other hitters. This is why its important to develop a team philosophy and try and build a team around that. For instance, if you plan to build a small park with high fences, you would want low GB/FB power hitters and pitchers with high GB/FB. Conversely if you want a big park with low fences, you should probably look for fly ball pitchers (low GB/FB) and hitters who have a higher GB/FB. Just make sure your OFs have lots of Range if you go for a big park. Things you can't really control - Opponents ballpark - Opponents pitchers High Velocity pitchers with low movement tend to give up more HRs; but some pitchers are just more susceptible than others (check out their individual HR rate - HR/IP). The pitcher's GB/FB will combine with your hitter's GB/FB to determine how the ball gets hit. If you face a lot of high GB/FB guys, then your HRs will be depressed.

#90583	01/08/2023 10:06:25 am	Mar 18th, 2058
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9601 Haverhill Halflings III.1	Just as one point of comparison to highlight the important of Hitting. Edhi hit 7 HRs last season. His HR rate (HR / AB) was 0.043. Valenzuela hit 9 HRs, but his HR rate was 0.097. So Valanzuela showed twice as much Power. His numbers are just low because he doesn't hit the ball enough.

#90584	01/08/2023 2:00:22 pm	Mar 18th, 2058
electriceel883 Joined: 05/26/2021 Posts: 1505 Irvine Infernos III.3	A lot of excellent points. I totally agree with the hitting one. Seems many teams go for the sluggers even if they hit very poorly. Yea, no hit - no homer. Anyway I see a guy hitting 1HR/28 AB to be about average, so if I can get a guy that hits better, I try to get them. Also, there are nice S or R Hitters, but Lefties are my focus because they get 75% of the AB usually. Hardest thing to get on waivers is quality starting pitching, especially young SP. So many teams focus on that at draft time. But that pool you can be really lucky or unlucky. For me, I did early picks two seasons - 2051 and 2054. Got 2 SP prospects in '51 - one good and the other with some walk problems). '54 I got nothing at all and that entire draft has been gone from my organization for awhile. But YMMV. Hitting SS are hard to find, some some teams will go there as well. I have had some success with lower BC guys https://brokenbat.org/player/294901 https://brokenbat.org/player/270494 I dont discount BC, but it is probably the lowest focus of any players stat. I believe it helps splits in a lot of guys, but I heavily platoon, because one year a guy might hit in all lineups and the next not. Next lowest of valuations to me is power. Power is great, but finding the guy who bats left, with great power, and great ability to hit fly balls is a lot easier said than done. So Hitting is always top priority. PD is next. I try to have a few speedy base stealers around but otherwise speed means little to me. Very much a "4 singles to score" team. But without many weak spots in the lineup (SS and #9 is expected to hit) my hitting and RS have been pretty consistent the last several seasons. Which is good, because waivers will give you groundball hitters. Over time I was able to improve the OBP of my team, because of course getting on base is the priority, but I wouldnt in most instances take a 12 hitter with a 19 PD. Pitching I have had very uneven results. Either talent or management issue or both. I have a very large park with high walls to try and keep the ball inside which is another thing: I need a very rangy OF for that. So that puts fielding and range as very important. Attribute projections I consider important but so is performance in the minors. Sure, there is some variance, but with the up to 20% deviations that exist, most of the guys that have done well in the minors are my better players in the majors. Very few cases where the reverse is true

#90585	01/08/2023 5:09:45 pm	Mar 20th, 2058
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9601 Haverhill Halflings III.1	Yeah, I do see a decent number of guys who do well in the minors but don't translate to the majors. However I rarely see the opposite. Guys who do poorly in the minors normally continue to do poorly. In the small number of cases I've seen guys do better, I suspect they were pushed through the minor system a little too fast resulting in depressed numbers until they were finally able to catch up with their peers.

#90586	01/08/2023 5:48:24 pm	Mar 20th, 2058
electriceel883 Joined: 05/26/2021 Posts: 1505 Irvine Infernos III.3	Yea, i keep an eye on "skills per level" when evaluating performance. As well as in the case of NP, if he's right handed, his batting performance may be poor because he is facing mostly right-handed pitching.

#90593	01/10/2023 6:08:55 am	Mar 25th, 2058
texg8r Joined: 05/22/2020 Posts: 92 Pembroke Pines Gators IV.2	In regards to the drafting vs Waiver conversation. Essentially I would agree with Rock that you have to do both in order to be successful. Out of curiosity I went through a few of the top club rosters to see how they were constructed. It seems that about 40% of their "main" contributors (100 games + for hitters, 100 ip for pitchers) came through the draft and the remainder are waiver pickups. Notable exceptions were High Point and Fall River who were closer to the other side of the equation, 60% drafted. This was based on last season's stats, so it's not exactly a scientific analysis, but I think it's illustrative of what it takes to succeed in this game. You really have to do both well. I will say that it feels like over time you should average about 2 useable Major League players from every draft year. Assuming most players have a 6-8 year productive Major League career, clearly one HAS to use the waiver system successfully to be competitive in the long run.

#90595	01/10/2023 9:16:52 am	Mar 25th, 2058
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9601 Haverhill Halflings III.1	I think my average is closer to 1 for useful draft picks per year But I know Haverhill has generally been on the low side for draft luck. Two a year would be great. Updated Tuesday, January 10 2023 @ 9:18:19 am PST

#90596	01/10/2023 11:03:27 am	Mar 25th, 2058
electriceel883 Joined: 05/26/2021 Posts: 1505 Irvine Infernos III.3	@texg8r I noticed High Point drafts exclusively HS. That may affect the % of draftees in their lineups...I am very heavy on waivers, just 11 of 30 on my roster are draftees. Even the minors has more waiver pickups than draftees: 10-7. I wont say its because my draft luck is poor: most of the time I am around 2 contributors most years. Part of it is probably related to the fact I pick up a lot of abandoned 24-26 year olds that others dont want to develop. So I would say the average career here is shorter than most teams. If someone is developed by 27-28 there might be just 3 years or so of full performance.

#90598	01/10/2023 12:28:56 pm	Mar 25th, 2058
Jerbeetwo Joined: 06/30/2019 Posts: 327 Tyler Goldendoodles IV.3	One thing I like to see in my minor leaguers is an improvement in their second year at a level. If I can get that I have hope for them at a major league level.

#90600	01/10/2023 1:54:10 pm	Mar 25th, 2058
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9601 Haverhill Halflings III.1	I draft a lot from Highschool, but haven't gotten a lot of value. So I don't think that pool is any stronger than other pools. Also, High School is a smart pools to draft from if you have a strong team and don't need immediate help. So its kind of self fulfilling Currently 17% of my roster is homegrown guys. Two position players and three pitchers. And one of those pitchers is skating on VERY thin ice. Not sure if he should qualify as majors quality, LOL. Marvin Stiles started off great, but has suffered from whatever caused the Movement nerf. Also seems to have stunted, but that is par for the course for the Halflings Updated Tuesday, January 10 2023 @ 2:03:30 pm PST