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Seca
Joined: 05/05/2014
Posts: 5201

Waterloo Dinosaurs
Legends

Broken Bat Baseball
Back when I was a little more competitive it used to irk me when teams used 4 man rotations through inter-league. It broke the realism for me that you could ask a starting pitcher to pitch on 3 days rest* from the middle of June until the middle of August.

I don't care much about it now, but I'm still a little intrigued. It always seemed like there was little to no performance penalty for doing this.

One of the teams in my league used a 4 man through inter this year, and I compared how pitchers did in their first start and second start against the same opponent. Obviously there are a lot of problems with the data. Small sample size. Defense and lineups could change due to injuries. Weather could be different. Etc.. Not scientific by any means.
Still fun to take a look.

Pitcher 1 (4 series)
Game 1: ERA 4.71 WHIP 1.14
Game 2: ERA 7.32 WHIP 1.60

Pitcher 2 (4 series)
Game 1: ERA 8.82 WHIP 1.83
Game 2: ERA 3.20 WHIP 1.47

The other guys (3 P, 4 series)
Game 1: ERA 13.94 WHIP 2.52
Game 2: ERA 6.75 WHIP 2.17

Overall
Game 1: ERA 8.11 WHIP 1.67
Game 2: ERA 5.64 WHIP 1.70

* the game calls pitching on Monday and then again on Thursday 3 days rest. But isn't that just 2 days rest?
Jason2327
Joined: 09/02/2014
Posts: 719

Abilene Patriots
III.2

Broken Bat Baseball
There should be a penalty
Rock777
Joined: 09/21/2014
Posts: 9600

Haverhill Halflings
III.1

Broken Bat Baseball
My guys still show some fatigue after 4 days rest. So presumably they are even more fatigued after 3 days. We know that pitcher performance declines over the course of the game as they build fatigue. This *should* mean that they are performing worse on 3 (or 2) days rest. The question is how much worse.

Are those guys getting pulled quickly? And how many pitchers did they pitch in the previous game. A guy who gets pulled in the first inning might actually be ok on 3 days rest.

Weather, ballparks, good/bad performances by each player (pitcher, batters, fielders), its pretty hard to make much of small data. I'm sure they do worse in general if you look at a large enough data set. Although I don't know if they do worse enough. Just a LOT of variables in the mix.
Rock777
Joined: 09/21/2014
Posts: 9600

Haverhill Halflings
III.1

Broken Bat Baseball
I use a 5 man during interleague, and a manual 4.5 during intraleague. This year, that means using some pretty horrible arms in the rotation. Might be a bad trade for me, but you would like to think the game rewards good pitcher management.



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