Broken Bat - Discussion Forum: The 1000 AB is real

Forum >> Discussions >> The 1000 AB is real

Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date

#85458	11/05/2021 5:58:19 am	Jul 21st, 2052
electriceel883 Joined: 05/26/2021 Posts: 1505 Irvine Infernos III.3	https://brokenbat.org/player/240660 I have heard here and there that after about 1000 AB in the majors you know who they are. Well, I got Laukaitis when he was 28 and used him heavily, in all lineups and he gained 6 SI. Figuring the race was run, I am using him the way that is intended, against LHP and as injury replacement/PH. He has only around 100 AB this Age-29 season but has only 974 career AB. He has gained 2 SI this year. I dont expect anymore, but this bolsters the contention that under-utilized players eventually get their training. https://brokenbat.org/player/224847 Also, I had Miggy in his age 29 season and he gained 1 SI that year. He lost a speed at the start of his Age-30 season and I released him. But someone picked him up and you can see from his SI he "regained" that point at some point in the season. 702 AB so far. https://brokenbat.org/player/224532 The most extreme example is this. I released him with less than 500 AB. Clearly he got the playing time when he was picked up. Reaching his cap from 98 and gaining POT at 29 is probably an outlier, but it was a cinch if this theory is accurate that he would gain some. Updated Friday, November 5 2021 @ 6:03:39 am PDT

#85473	11/05/2021 5:21:38 pm	Jul 23rd, 2052
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9596 Haverhill Halflings III.1	POT automatically goes up if the SI rises above the scouted POT, so its not that uncommon for older players to increase POT. Its not really because the scouts are saying it though. Its more the ratings have forced the scouts to go back and update their records. Under-utilized players will gain the same amount of Training as everyone else (they all practice the same amount). They just won't gain as much Experience. And there are dozens of examples of guys who never came close to reaching their potential in the game because they were rushed through the minors. They do gain training in the majors, but it doesn't mean they can get all of their training. Additionally late pops can be from getting a last bit of training, or they can be from getting a last bit of experience. Really depends on how the player was used and how much they needed to fill each of those buckets. Different for every player. Updated Friday, November 5 2021 @ 5:35:28 pm PDT

#85474	11/05/2021 5:26:46 pm	Jul 23rd, 2052
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9596 Haverhill Halflings III.1	Worth noting that there are several systems at work on players throughout their careers. 1) Growth through Training 2) Growth through Experience 3) Decline through Aging 4) Decline through Sharpening 5) Growth through Sharpening Speed, Arm, Range are only effected by the last three. Sometimes the systems fight against each other when the rates are very close. So you can have a guy lose some speed due to aging, but then have his speed rating increase due to sharpening. This can get especially funky in the rare situations when you have a player whose Training growth is so slow that it is similar to the sharpening decline, and the player constantly flip flops. That is a good indication they aren't going to grow very much in that rating. Updated Friday, November 5 2021 @ 5:27:17 pm PDT

#85484	11/06/2021 7:38:28 am	Jul 23rd, 2052
electriceel883 Joined: 05/26/2021 Posts: 1505 Irvine Infernos III.3	Thats why half my pitching staff is in AAA right now, to make sure they have what minor league training, if any, is left, before most of them complete their age-26 seasons. I am assuming RE: this 1000 AB, that is the experience portion of their SI they are missing, leading to these events. Of course a 29 year old player in most cases is going to be on a roster during the period they are not being used or are under-used. There are not that many instances of people being picked up and retained that missed a full season or more. I dont think the scouts ever predict any change in POT, it is predictive based on factors and sometimes accurate and sometimes no. This last round of Training #0 changes in potentials yielded some interesting results, vis a vis my predictions. The predictions based on SI were mostly accurate. The boost from Very Good potential pretty much low to non-existent.