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MukilteoMike
Joined: 08/09/2014
Posts: 3294

Inactive

Broken Bat Baseball
Amazing work! The results are completely bewildering, though. Do you know if anyone hit a homer? I'm guessing the answer is no since there were no fly ball outs, which is completely bizarre.

I've abandoned hit and runs because the manager chooses strange times to do it. However, if your data represents anything near truth, I'm doing exactly the opposite of what we should. No double plays and an increase in batting average of over 100 points?! What the heck.

Another completely crazy result is that runners are being forced out almost twice as much as the batter, yet somehow the batter never falls victim to a double play. Why?! The batter suddenly becomes a speed demon? Totally weird.

Seriously fantastic work. I'm a bit miffed at you, though, because I'm now probably going to have to do the same study, but obviously on another team since I don't hit and run.
MukilteoMike
Joined: 08/09/2014
Posts: 3294

Inactive

Broken Bat Baseball
I seized data for 60 divisional games of a level II team this season. They didn't have nearly the success with their hit and runs. In fact, they were miserable. In 19 attempts, they struck out 8 times (42%) and only hit .211. Their opponents only had 7 attempts and got 2 hits.

Obviously these are tiny sample sizes, but it brings things down to Earth.

Oh, yeah. One extra note. There was one GIDP in the 26 attempts.

Updated Wednesday, May 27 2020 @ 5:12:56 am PDT
AssumedPseudonym
Joined: 10/26/2016
Posts: 1130

Deerfield Beach Rats
V.7

Broken Bat Baseball
 …Which is why I plan to spend a day this coming offseason to go back through Rats games as far as the ’39 season. I figure seven seasons worth of hit-and-run results should be a better reference pool. I’ll also be noting more details next time around — primarily which fielding position the ball was hit to, results thereof, how many outs there were, and Rats attempts versus opponents attempts.

Updated Wednesday, May 27 2020 @ 5:42:08 am PDT
MukilteoMike
Joined: 08/09/2014
Posts: 3294

Inactive

Broken Bat Baseball
You had many more attempts than my quick hit look. I was giving a warning regarding my data much more so than yours. I didn't record the position the balls were hit to, but I did record the number of outs and inning they occurred. Far more hit and runs occurred with 1 out than 0, but that isn't too surprising given the fact that someone has to be on base to try a hit and run, amongst other things. They occurred all innings, even in the first which surprised me a bit. Finally, they all occurred when the teams were within 2 runs of each other.



Updated Wednesday, May 27 2020 @ 6:00:36 am PDT
AssumedPseudonym
Joined: 10/26/2016
Posts: 1130

Deerfield Beach Rats
V.7

Broken Bat Baseball
 Inning and run differential. *Jots notes.* This may wind up needing a full-blown spreadsheet and not just a little text document to keep track of. (…Not that I expected otherwise, mind…)
Seca
Joined: 05/05/2014
Posts: 5194

Waterloo Dinosaurs
Legends

Broken Bat Baseball
On a fly ball or line out a runner in motion has to return to his base. Runners on 1st and 2nd can't advance on these (and managers with jobs don't do hit and run with a runner on 3rd), so the runner being in motion is irrelevant. I think the match engine is (quite reasonably) not bothering to tell us the runner started when it has no effect on the play.
Ken_Kennilworth
Joined: 11/26/2019
Posts: 399

Charleston Hawks
III.2

Broken Bat Baseball
@Assumed P & Mike

thanks for the analysis...interesting that your results diverged; i guess we will need to do similar analysis of our own games

re: assumed -- i can see how hit & run is a good strategy for your team...your home park has deep outfields with high walls, large foul area and natural grass--it is a set up for low scoring games; indeed it must work well for you because you lead your division, are among the runs scored leaders in your division and well ahead of your league in fewest runs allowed; well played sir!

PrivateSnowflake
Joined: 01/06/2015
Posts: 1160

Bloomington Thunder
Legends

Broken Bat Baseball
Thanks, AP! I'd love to see any data you come up with. Very interesting!

afreespirit
Joined: 09/17/2011
Posts: 305

Inactive

Broken Bat Baseball
and managers with jobs don't do hit and run with a runner on 3rd.

Suicide squeeze is a form of hit and run.
AssumedPseudonym
Joined: 10/26/2016
Posts: 1130

Deerfield Beach Rats
V.7

Broken Bat Baseball
 I decided to go ahead and get a head start on the seven season project — partly to get my spreadsheet in order, partly to make sure I didn’t lose the ’39 season during the flip, partly so I wasn’t trying to do the whole thing all in one massive chunk. In the process, I found this gem:
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 …Welp. There’s another row to get added to the spreadsheet…


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