Broken Bat - Discussion Forum: Draft inequalities

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Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date

#72937	04/18/2020 4:07:14 am	Apr 10th, 2045
Frankebasta Joined: 09/15/2013 Posts: 884 Kodiak Mules III.3	Last week, after reading a thread about an abnormal influx of new VERY HIGH potential prospects (eg. Brady), and another thread about supposed inequalities in the draft system, I spent a bit of time doing a simple _Search by Potential_ on the Broken Bat database. It quickly popped to my eyes that several teams appear on the list more than once! Being Laredo, myself, among the lucky beneficiaries of the Goddess of Draft, I feeling a bit uneasy for my wealth, I dug deeper into it. There was a tiny bit of work to do: I merged Hitters' and Pitchers' lists and checked for multiple instances of the same Team's Acronym. You know, the 3-letter code shown on player's page. Well, i found out that this code is not unique for every team. There are teams sharing the same abbreviation. That's ok, easy to purge them. Another need is to eliminate players acquired through Waivers, because I'm inquiring about the Draft only. That's easy too: not many pot16 are ever cut by their original team. Finally, I recorded how many teams drafted more than 1 pot16+, and which League they are playing in. Results: on a total of 164 pot16 or greater (121 Hitters, 43 Pitchers) 2 teams own 3 pot16+ (one in L2, one in L4) (in one case it's 2Hitters + 1P; 2Pitchers + 1 H the other case) 17 teams own 2 pot16+ divided as: 1 Mexican Leagu 2 Legends 2 League 2 1 League 3 6 League 4 3 League 5 2 League 6 for a Grand Total of 19 teams to which The Goddess of draft bestowed her blessing for a Grand Total of 40 players (of out 164) that's 24% of pot16+ allotted to 2.5% of the teams I have no explanation for it

#72944	04/18/2020 9:33:43 am	Apr 10th, 2045
JohnnyBoi62 Joined: 06/21/2019 Posts: 356 Florissant Falcons VI.21	I’m one of the 2 simpletons in LL.6 fuddling around with the 2 POT 16 drafted players. It’s interesting how it worked out. I inherited Stewart, drafted Ward in 2041 as a 15 and he became a 16, then as a side story I drafted DeLong as a 16 in 2042, so I HAD 3 at one time, but alas, DeLong fell to 15 this season. Poor me. I’m not super hot on Ward, but obviously won’t be cutting ties any time soon. His PD is low and not advancing much and he has a high GB rate, and to boot he’s not even fielding 3B well... Updated Saturday, April 18 2020 @ 9:34:25 am PDT

#72948	04/18/2020 10:11:48 am	Apr 10th, 2045
MukilteoMike Joined: 08/09/2014 Posts: 3294 Inactive	Frank, the explanation is simple. I'm not in a position to do the math right now, but odds are it will work out something like that just due to dumb luck. This is very much like the "have the same birthday" game that defies our perception of odds. How many people must you put in a group to have a 50% chance of someone having they same birthday (day and month, not year)? For non-math people and people who haven't heard this before, they generally guess several times the correct answer. 23. That's all. 23. The draft lottery here hits in a similar fashion. Odds are the same team will hit more often than we perceive they should.

#72949	04/18/2020 10:18:58 am	Apr 10th, 2045
JohnnyBoi62 Joined: 06/21/2019 Posts: 356 Florissant Falcons VI.21	Good point Mike. Between inactive owners, people skipping the draft, and bots maybe making silly draft choices, that could explain the concentration some too. Also I’ve always dropped a player to at least look at the draft board every week since 2041. If you don’t do that, then you have no validity to complaining about not finding elite talent, as you’re passing on potential opportunities to find them. However remote there’s still a chance that you get a hidden gem even in the later rounds.

#72952	04/18/2020 2:40:33 pm	Apr 11th, 2045
tokuchi Joined: 02/11/2017 Posts: 36 Smyrna Sounds V.7	This is exactly what Mike wrote, just the birthday paradox in disguise. In the usual setting, we have n=25 people to be divided among k=365 days. Here, with some simplifications, we have n=164 star players to be divided among k=756 teams. The simplifications are that we ignore at least two factors: 1) Not all teams draft consistently each week. This tends to increase the probability of multiple winners. 2) After a team picks a 16pot player, there is a one week window under which it won't be able to draft again. This has the opposite effect on the number of multiple winners. A few thousand simulations for the simplified problem, suggest that the expected number of teams with exactly two 16pot players is 14.2, and the expected number of teams with exactly three 16pot players is 1.0. The probability that at least two teams have at least three 16pot players, is around 25%. If anyone wants to experiment with it, here is a line of code in R which simulates one such draw: library(descr) freq(freq(sample(756,164, replace=TRUE))[,1]) And a short, funny relevant story. Three years ago, the Greek government tried to give incentives to its citizens to use credit cards instead of banknotes. At the end of each month, they would organize an electronic lottery, where 1000 of the participants would each win 1000 euros. Everyone who had made at least one purchase using his credit card would automatically participate, and the number of lottery tickets each participant would get, would be proportional to the size of their purchases. A year in, the institute which had conducted the lotteries, announced the overall statistics. Apparently, after just 11 lotteries with around 5 million participants in each one of them, there were 29 participants who had won twice and 4 who had won three times. The opposition parties had a blast, accusing the government of favoritism, fixed lottery draws and claiming that, according to math, such results would be virtually impossible. The reality is that, according to math, it would be almost impossible not to have multiple winners of this magnitude.

#72954	04/18/2020 4:59:19 pm	Apr 13th, 2045
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9599 Haverhill Halflings III.1	When you are working with numbers like 2 and 3, there is not concentration.