Broken Bat - Discussion Forum: splits conundrum

Forum >> Discussions >> splits conundrum

Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date

#61671	11/08/2018 8:47:43 am	May 25th, 2038
Seca Joined: 05/05/2014 Posts: 5199 Waterloo Dinosaurs Legends	I've been tracking a weird reversal in splits for my 2 best LHP (Bagley and Sanchez). Bagley murdered LHB most of his career, but 4 of the last 5 seasons he's been clobbered by them. Sanchez has shown the same trend, but to a lesser degree. I think its a combination of small sample and selection bias (and that the same thing may be happening with Gamboa). A few seasons sounds like a lot, but in the grand scheme its not a huge amount of data. Divisions are small. If you don't move you face the same guys over and over. (This is what I mean by selection bias.) For Bagley and Sanchez, their dip has coincided with Clemente who despite a poor career BA vs. LHP just wrecks Bagley and Sanchez. You've moved a bit, so maybe not as relevant for Gamboa. Still, upper division lefties need to be better than average to survive. Might be a thing. I think it will work itself out. His power is very encouraging, especially with the defensive package.

#61674	11/08/2018 3:50:44 pm	May 27th, 2038
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9597 Haverhill Halflings III.1	Yeah, I was thinking about selection bias. Really I'm comparing minors to majors, so that is a considerable move. That was my first thought, that the Lefty pitching in II.1 is just that much more overpowering than the Righty pitching. But I don't see that in my other players. Unless its specifically his low BC and PD that creates a bad matchup with II.1 Lefties. Sample size could also be an issue, but 2+ years starts to feel like enough to see some patterns emerge. He has been surprisingly consistent in the last three seasons with his reverse split... Still crossing my fingers and hopes he turns it around, but starting to lose faith... I'd be thrilled if he could hit .230 with 25 HRs. Updated Thursday, November 8 2018 @ 3:53:25 pm PST

#61675	11/08/2018 5:11:13 pm	May 29th, 2038
Philliesworld Joined: 10/17/2014 Posts: 787 Pierre Jacobins III.3	This thread has really piqued my interest...Because I've noticed somewhat of a reverse in some of my players splits. The most noticeable is Castaneda. Starting three seasons ago his splits reversed in a major fashion. Why? And it's not at all like he's a young player that recently came out of the minors. He has a well established track record in the majors. Its just weird. And there's a others who've trended in that direction as well in the last few seasons. It's a little troubling. I hope it's nothing and I'm only seeing ghosts. Updated Thursday, November 8 2018 @ 5:14:59 pm PST

#61676	11/08/2018 5:54:04 pm	May 29th, 2038
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9597 Haverhill Halflings III.1	Yeah, that was part of why I was asking the question too. I have a couple guys whose tenancies changed back around 2035. And we all know what else happened back then. I was wondering if some of the vL/vR traits got corrupted and/or replaced.

#61686	11/09/2018 7:46:28 am	May 29th, 2038
Seca Joined: 05/05/2014 Posts: 5199 Waterloo Dinosaurs Legends	And we all know what else happened back then. I was wondering if some of the vL/vR traits got corrupted and/or replaced. When Bagley first started getting lit up, I immediately wondered if there was some sort of tweak in the match engine. It's really not Occam. '35 showed me there is more random that goes into performance than I expected. That, along with a couple tough lefties and a few pattycake RH relievers could be all that's happening. If you want pet theories ... I was really taken by how Eaton's offense and defense crashed hand-in-hand last season. I felt it suggested there was a form variable at play damping stats on both sides of the ball concurrently. I've begun tracking batting average for players that make 2 (or more) errors in a game. Not enough data yet, but working on it.

#61690	11/09/2018 1:06:02 pm	May 29th, 2038
FreddyTheEye Joined: 11/11/2014 Posts: 625 Inactive	Updated Saturday, November 10 2018 @ 2:25:34 am PST

#61700	11/09/2018 4:48:56 pm	May 31st, 2038
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9597 Haverhill Halflings III.1	I went from winning the division in 2035.v1 to getting demoted in 2035.v2. So yeah, a lot comes down to how the dice roll. But that is a really strong reverse split following up a very consistent normal split in A - AAA. Probably is just bad luck with the die rolls, but it will take a lot of losing to figure out otherwise Updated Friday, November 9 2018 @ 4:49:22 pm PST

#61701	11/09/2018 5:47:04 pm	May 31st, 2038
Philliesworld Joined: 10/17/2014 Posts: 787 Pierre Jacobins III.3	@FreddytheEye I'm much more than a duffer anyway.... Honestly I don't get to play near as often as I'd like to. Oh, But I love strategy though, and (ironically this thread of all places) there's no RNG involved in chess. Only pure strategy. Most of my friends call me a total nerd but I'd rather play a good game of "king hunt" than fortnite or PubG. I just need a good mate who knows what he/she is doing. Evidently your familiar with chess...do you play in tourneys?

#61702	11/10/2018 11:19:14 am	May 31st, 2038
amalric7 Joined: 01/20/2016 Posts: 2237 New York Lancers V.4	Did someone say 'PubG'? Been playing since it came out, but I'm garbage at it even now. Never played much FPS (or TPS) games so have years of catching up to do!

#61704	11/10/2018 11:54:30 am	May 31st, 2038
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9597 Haverhill Halflings III.1	I used to totally dominated at FPS games. But that was a long time ago. Back before people would actually pay to watch someone else play a game, LOL. I think my reflexes have aged out at this point. Mostly stick to brainy rather than twitch games in my old age