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Rock777
Joined: 09/21/2014
Posts: 9568

Haverhill Halflings
III.1

Broken Bat Baseball
Its pretty well established that high velocity pitchers give up more HRs on average. What I find interesting is the precise relationship. I noticed that Saucedo had a significant drop in HR allowed last year after losing some of his zip. Have others seen similar data points?
Crazy Li
Joined: 01/25/2015
Posts: 879

Inactive

Broken Bat Baseball
That seems like an abnormally sharp drop... maybe a lucky year? He still has 16 Vel which isn't exactly low. Still, I'd say he gave up long balls about 60% of the amount he used to if you adjust for IP and LL when going from 18 down to 16.

I'd be interested in seeing if that same rate continues this season.

You haven't changed your ballpark dimensions any during this time, right?
Endrju
Joined: 05/28/2015
Posts: 577

Inactive

Broken Bat Baseball
There is a correlation and it's the main reason I focus on curveball pitchers and build good infield to help them, rather than strikeout pitchers.

Want good examples, here you go, very similar pichers, but one is a finesse and the other is strikeout, starting from 2026:
Morita - 16 velocity, 187 games, 1202 innings, 146 HRs against.
Merrill - 12 velocity, 197 games, 1366 innings, 67 HRs against.

They all played at the same period, so that means it's the same ballpark and the same defense behind them.
Rock777
Joined: 09/21/2014
Posts: 9568

Haverhill Halflings
III.1

Broken Bat Baseball
I think I kept my dimensions the same for the last few years at least. Obviously its a different league, but I've been jumping around between leagues a lot in recent seasons. Last season (16 velocity, II.1) he gave up 0.57 HRs per game. The year before (17 velocity, Legends) he gave us 1.31 HRs per game. The year before that (18 velocity, II.1) 0.85 HRs per game. The year before that (18 Velocity, Legends) 1.06 HRs per game, and the year before that (18 velocity, II.2) 0.85 HRs per game.

So there is variability there, and his worst season was with 17 velocity in Legends, but 0.57 is a steep drop. Maybe just luck, but his previous two season at level II were both 0.85.

The problem with using two different pitchers is that there are too many factors. Declining velocity on a single player reduces a lot of the variables. I know there is a relationship, but looking at aging players can provide a bit better data than looking across players.
Seca
Joined: 05/05/2014
Posts: 5193

Waterloo Dinosaurs
Legends

Broken Bat Baseball
Its just a blip. A ceiling season on the heels of a floor season.

For his career, Saucedo has conceded a HR on 11% of his hits. Most individual seasons he's been very close to that. In 2030 he was 4% worse than his norm. In 2031 he was 4% better. Natural variation.

Romero is a good guy to look at for this sort of thing. Had 19 velocity at 30, dipping down to 12 at 36.

I think what Romero shows is that hoping high velocity guys develop better HR suppression as the age is a little delusional. If your velocity has dropped enough to have an impact, your other pitching skills have collapsed too. HR suppression doesn't improve.

High velocity guys succeed b/c they suppress hits. They don't age well b/c as their skills slip hit suppression does too. As flyball pitchers who give up more HRs and get fewer DPs a dip in hit suppression can be catastrophic.
Rock777
Joined: 09/21/2014
Posts: 9568

Haverhill Halflings
III.1

Broken Bat Baseball
Nice data point. I suspect it is a blip, which is why I was trying to solicit more data points. Many pitchers seem to lose velocity before their other ratings suffer much, so it would be interesting to see the relationship. Is a high HR rate due directly to velocity, or are high velocity guys stuck with some high home run rate hidden variable (different from GB/FB).


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