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amalric7
Joined: 01/20/2016
Posts: 2237

New York Lancers
V.4

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I'm with these ^ guys, that's exactly what I do - and it works, for the most part.
Yankee1219
Joined: 12/03/2016
Posts: 113

West Allis Devil Dogs
IV.2

Broken Bat Baseball
That is some great information and some awesome insight into successful waiver wire strategy. This thread is bookmarked, for sure.

Thank you all, and good luck with the rest of the season!
newtman
Joined: 11/02/2013
Posts: 3343

Inactive

Broken Bat Baseball
Successful may be overstating it. It will at least have you venting due to bad luck instead of winning the wrong guy though. It hurts way more when it is you screwing up than when it is simple bad luck.
admin
Joined: 01/27/2010
Posts: 4985

Administrator
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So success is not winning the super competitive big league player waiver claims, but the high potential minor leaguers that were cut?

Steve
newtman
Joined: 11/02/2013
Posts: 3343

Inactive

Broken Bat Baseball
Depends on the situation. If you are one player away from promoting then that 29 year old 104 SI well built pitcher may be what is needed. On the other hand a 19 year old 16 potential even with low SI is likely to have far more value long term than any 12 potential player. For a team still building the first guy helps only a little, while the second is someone to build around. For a team on the cusp of Legends or even better winning Legends or the cup the first guy could play a pivotal role in putting the team over the top whereas the second guy would take far too long to develop to play any role in the next several seasons.
Rock777
Joined: 09/21/2014
Posts: 9596

Haverhill Halflings
III.1

Broken Bat Baseball
Right. Being able to tell exactly the order claims will be processed allows us to choose which is most important for any given situation. If the higher SI guy is your 1st choice, its no harm in leaving the other guy. I don't put in any where near as many claims as I used to. It should eventually get harder for you to find players who are better than the ones you have. If I have one spot open and claims on 3 guys with 10 claims a piece, I let them all go. Count myself lucky if I managed to snag any of them. But if I have one spot and claims on two guys with 2 claims a piece, that is when I consider which guy is higher priority.





Updated Tuesday, January 17 2017 @ 2:52:05 pm PST
Haselrig
Joined: 04/13/2014
Posts: 2790

Novi Doubledays
III.4

Broken Bat Baseball
So success is not winning the super competitive big league player waiver claims, but the high potential minor leaguers that were cut?

I treat major leaguers and minor leaguers as two separate pools with different criteria when I do my waiver rundowns. I didn't want to over-complicate the example I posted earlier, so I went with minor leaguers. They're criteria is easier to convey I think.

In Newt's example, I'd choose the 16 POT over the veteran P in every scenario. Forgoing a short-term need to get the full career of a guy who should be a major contributor seems like a no-brainer. I might still decide to leave claims on both if the P does fill a need. Odds of landing the 16 POT would likely be less than one percent and the P would likely be around two/three percent, so you might as well roll the dice as you aren't going to end up with either one anyway.
Holmes
Joined: 11/07/2013
Posts: 1175

Inactive

Broken Bat Baseball
I seem to have missed the answer to my question in December, and actually, what I found so blatantly obvious doesn't seem to be the case. And I ask myself, why not?
It really doesn't make sense to make a player with a ton of claims on him a free agent because the one manager who wins the claim already won another clain and doesn't have a free roster spot. Why can't he simply fall to another claimant? That should be fairly easy to implement in the processing algorithm, either by running an extra pass for these cases or by excluding teams with no open roster spots from the claim processing in the first place.
Players should really only become free agents if either nobody claims them or all claiming managers have full rosters.
newtman
Joined: 11/02/2013
Posts: 3343

Inactive

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Why can't he simply fall to another claimant?



He does go to another claimant. If you re-read Steve's post, he said they go unclaimed if all the claims are invalid. He seems to be focusing on players with relatively few claims as none of the guys with 50+ claims ever make it to free agency.

Updated Wednesday, January 18 2017 @ 8:52:36 am PST
Haselrig
Joined: 04/13/2014
Posts: 2790

Novi Doubledays
III.4

Broken Bat Baseball
Players should really only become free agents if either nobody claims them or all claiming managers have full rosters.

Unless I've been way off base my entire time here, this is the way the waiver system has always worked here. I cannot recall a case where a player with a high number of claims has ever fallen entirely through to FA. If anyone can point to such a case, then I'll admit I was wrong in assuming that was always how this worked.


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