Discussion Forum

Forum >> Discussions >> Market Inefficiency: Pitchers with low control   Bookmark This Forum Thread

Post ID Date & Time Game Date Function
MukilteoMike
Joined: 08/09/2014
Posts: 3294

Inactive

Broken Bat Baseball
It's not just control for me. If I think a pitcher will have less than 10 in any of the four major pitching areas I disregard him, unless they're very good in the other three. Lack of control has another penalty--fewer batters faced. They tend to have more pitches per at bat, which means they can't last as long, giving them a double whammy.
Rock777
Joined: 09/21/2014
Posts: 9571

Haverhill Halflings
III.1

Broken Bat Baseball
I think its mostly because it is an easy early weed. I always drop guys with below average control, but personally I have been questioning that lately. I think high velocity with low movement might be worse than below average control. I've seen some below average control guys do pretty well. Its the Wild guys I would stay far away from.
Carcharoth
Joined: 07/16/2015
Posts: 149

Inactive

Broken Bat Baseball
I also started wondering about the same thing last season. I've started to take guys with both below average and lacking control and seeing what their BB/K ratio actually plays out as in the majors. I think, again, performance trumps stats, so I'm willing to give pitchers a chance if the rest of their build looks good. This is at least partly rooted in the hope that they can outperform their numerical rating. I agree with Rock though, it is definitely a really easy way to cut players quickly.

Updated Monday, December 12 2016 @ 4:19:50 pm PST
Slug5373
Joined: 12/23/2014
Posts: 376

Inactive

Broken Bat Baseball
That's a good point Rock. That's probably a significant reason why. I also agree that pitchers who "will always be wild" are not worth even considering, I was talking more about just below 10 control.
admin
Joined: 01/27/2010
Posts: 4981

Administrator
Broken Bat Baseball
A guy with "control will always be below average" maybe be just under the midpoint...but with the uncertainty of scouting, he may eventually be average. If he's got great stuff otherwise, he may end up being a really go pitcher.


Steve
newtman
Joined: 11/02/2013
Posts: 3343

Inactive

Broken Bat Baseball
For a long time top teams had a large stash of pitchers left over from the pre-potential search era, when pitching options were less competed over. As long as we could easily find a guy who had good control, there was no reason to keep guys with below average control. Now that it has become tougher to build the staff that we might want, turning to these players makes sense. If one pans out then it will have been a risk well taken. If they don't, well not all prospects do work out anyways.
amalric7
Joined: 01/20/2016
Posts: 2235

New York Lancers
IV.2

Broken Bat Baseball
I tried to stay clear of "below average" control (or worse) pitchers my first two seasons, but can't recall if that was because the ones I did try performed poorly or if it was out of personal choice. Either way I changed tack during the 2028 season, for two reasons: (1) lack of better alternatives, and (2) I picked up a couple of really intriguing guys off waivers:-

Chris Wood - 19/14/9/8 pitching.
Armando Minoso - 18/10/19/8 pitching.

A slight difference between the two, and Wood is a righty (who is really good against RH hitters) and Minoso a lefty (who is lights out against LH hitters), but the results have been about the same. Both issue lots of walks but due to high pitching abilities get a lot of strikeouts, and though neither throws over 60% of their pitches for strikes they tend to be around 2:1 when comparing good starts (not QS) to bad starts. Some days they will get lit up, more often they won't.

And yes I'm aware this is LLV, and quite possibly these guys would struggle higher up the pyramid. Its going to be interesting to see how they compare with Knepper, who is just starting out. He isn't quite their opposite with an 18/17/6/17 line, but the interesting thing here is that his poor movement skill tends to lead to lots of fly balls and hence lots of home runs. Now that he's almost maxed maybe those numbers will come down, but he'll always be prone.

Its different sides of the same thing, as a few vets have made me aware - if you have a score of 16+ in one (or more) of Velocity, Change of Speed or movement, then you have a useful pitcher. And sometimes that can outweight a lack of Control (at certain levels).
garfscores
Joined: 10/13/2014
Posts: 488

Battle Creek Sting
III.4

Broken Bat Baseball
I dropped a 14 POT with lacking control and throws all day. Those are my two least favorite traits. I still kick myself every day. I'm hoping he doesn't end up haunting me. Ultimately, though a picher with any skill under 10 is going to have a hard time finding a spot on my roster.

Updated Wednesday, December 14 2016 @ 2:44:49 pm PST
JJNZ
Joined: 12/09/2014
Posts: 1580

Yakima Monster
III.3

Broken Bat Baseball
I'm glad you bought Nelson up Garfscores, he was an experiment of this exact thread on my part, I'm not sure exactly where he fits in my pitching plans at this point, I figured when I got him that he's a very good LR guy, but his numbers thus far have been good, and the BB:9 certainly isn't unbearable. He could well end up very similar to Trevino - obviously a lower ceiling, but Trevino has no control issues scouted, and a worse BB:9 (given its minors stats v majors but....)
lostraven
Joined: 07/02/2016
Posts: 1269

Corvallis Ravens
III.1

Broken Bat Baseball
I picked this guy up off waivers a few seasons back. It's been interesting to see him develop. In the end, he turned into one of those high velocity-low movement guys that Rock mentioned. My team has no other options (pitching continues to be the hardest thing for me to develop in this game so far), so he's going to get plenty of chances. The low GB/FB is worrisome, but we'll give him a shot for lack of options.

In the meantime, I might re-evaluate a low-control player more closely. I found this thread while searching to see if anyone had suggested adding one more P slot in the draft. But with pitching being thin, maybe a low-control guy with strong stats otherwise might be worth a shot.


Previous Page | Show All |