Broken Bat - Discussion Forum: Is a players decline always mirrored in his SI?

Forum >> Discussions >> Is a player's decline always mirrored in his SI?

Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date	Function

#41685	11/11/2016 6:06:22 am
BrianV Joined: 02/08/2016 Posts: 125 Inactive	Josue Quintana has been my ace for the last few seasons. Despite being in decline for a few seasons already, up until last season he's always been a solid performer. This past offseason he lost another 4 SI, but I kept him as he's still one of my top pitchers based on ratings and has a terrific track record for me. This season, his performance has tanked. In 73 innings, he owns a pitiful 8.06 ERA. I've kept trotting him out in the belief that he'll work through it, but after 20 disastrous starts... can he be finished? I thought that SI only dropped during the offseason, and during the season, the player mostly played to their SI. Is it possible that he's just gone off a cliff despite his ratings as a pitcher still being reasonably solid? I hate to see him go - he was one of the high points on a team that otherwise has typically had poor pitching... but not like this!

#41702	11/11/2016 9:13:23 am
Seca Joined: 05/05/2014 Posts: 5198 Waterloo Dinosaurs Legends	I think there are a variety of reasons a player may show decline. Sometimes its just bad luck. For a pitcher an elevated walk rate or home run rate may just be some season long bad rng. Players can bounce back from this. Sometimes its tied to improvement in the opposition. If your league gets stronger or your team promotes some players may not do as well. Quintana for example - his 11 control might be fine in VI but hurt him in V. You are right that skill drops only happen once per season. Its possible Quintana's drop was worse than you think. There are decimal points on those skill values. Eg., maybe his control dropped from 12.8 to 11.2. His drop may have been more significant than the -4 SI on his player card. If he were 29 with a good build I'd guess he was having a patch of bad luck. Given he's 34 with limited control - I think its a combination of age and improved competition. My guess is that he won't bounce back this season ... or next.

#41726	11/11/2016 2:32:48 pm
amalric7 Joined: 01/20/2016 Posts: 2236 New York Lancers V.4	Control of 10 or 11 is no issue in LLV or in LLIV for that matter. I've had guys like Silva win a Cy Young, Wood had a terrific 28 games for me last season. I used to avoid poor control pitchers like the plague, but actually if they have a couple of decent pitching tools (Vel/CoS/Mov) they can be effective at these levels. As for Quintana, age has got him. I'd cut and move on.

#41730	11/11/2016 2:48:41 pm
Seca Joined: 05/05/2014 Posts: 5198 Waterloo Dinosaurs Legends	It depends on the V or IV. That's the point. It's not the Roman numeral, it is the strength of the opposition. There are many V and IV where Silva would not be a Cy Young candidate. Quintana's BB% and HR rate have both gone up. Could that is all age. But moving to a higher league has quite possibly contributed.

#41732	11/11/2016 3:00:12 pm
amalric7 Joined: 01/20/2016 Posts: 2236 New York Lancers V.4	It does depend on the league, but actually I'm saying that mine is/was among the toughest. I'd say my team is pretty good and yet its a struggle all the time. When I was in IV4 in 2027 two of my division rivals were Alexandria (now leading II.1) and Davenport (2nd in III.2, where West-ies Beaverton and Columbus also now play), and Silva was good enough there. I'm not saying its true for all, and maybe he was an exception.

#41741	11/11/2016 8:30:47 pm
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9592 Haverhill Halflings III.1	Also depends if that 10 Control is really 8, 10, or 12. There can be a LOT of variance in what is displayed.

#41747	11/12/2016 1:17:36 am
crackit Joined: 05/15/2013 Posts: 315 Anchorage Lawless IV.4	I have not read all of the thread so apologise if this has been covered. I think a number of things are relevant to this pitcher: He is aging and his decline will not be reflected in the SI until the end of the season I personally wouldn't start a pitcher with 10 stamina, I prefer 13+, and his actual stamina may be lower His control is also marginal given his decline You have just been promoted so he's facing better opposition, in theory at least You could cut him, and I believe most would, but then I think people possibly undervalue or totally discount the experience stat. You can also reassess at the end of the season when his SI is next updated. Personally I would keep him if I think he still has reasonable numbers compared to the rest of my roster or what I can sign from free agency. PI would however move him to the bullpen and probably to a setup or closer role that wouldn't test his stamina (and in this case I might have done it sooner but a lot will depend on what else you have on your roster). Hope this helps

#41758	11/12/2016 11:49:31 am
amalric7 Joined: 01/20/2016 Posts: 2236 New York Lancers V.4	I'm one who totally discounts experience. There are countless examples of players who just fell off a cliff once they reached a certain age. Quintana has 1 QS in 20 attempts. ONE. That might convince you moving him to the pen might help him, but look at his other numbers: an 8.06 ERA is terrible, almost a run per inning; 5.38 FIP; .347 AVG against; 1.968 WHIP; 1HR every 6 IP. There's nothing good in any of that, and in truth those are terrible numbers. He's not going to improve at that age, with the possible exception of a run of a few games, and that won't last.

#41861	11/15/2016 9:21:48 pm
BrianV Joined: 02/08/2016 Posts: 125 Inactive	I think Quintana started to feel the heat when this thread went up. He's appeared in three games giving 8 innings of 1-hit ball. Since he's on a very hot streak, I can't bring myself to cut him anymore. This game...