Broken Bat - Discussion Forum: Waivers

Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date	Function

#39918	09/22/2016 6:47:43 pm
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9600 Haverhill Halflings III.1	Yes, picking early is another small advantage.

#39920	09/22/2016 9:28:49 pm
newtman Joined: 11/02/2013 Posts: 3343 Inactive	You can only bookmark 20 threads, I didn't deem those important enough to bookmark. Therefore I don't have the links. If you care enough you can search them using the forum search just as easily as I can, if you don't care enough then you're in the same boat I am. Have a nice day.

#39945	09/23/2016 3:54:26 pm
amalric7 Joined: 01/20/2016 Posts: 2237 New York Lancers V.4	I'm not sure when you draft in a particular round makes any difference at all. I'm in the UK so my usual draft time is as soon as possible, 1230 GMT (0730 ET). There are some days I can't draft until evening, such as when I made my first round pick last year - and I pulled a 15 POT. I've looked at probably a couple of hundred picks from this season's first round, in order, and potential is scattered all over the place, through all the categories. It's pretty much pot luck - the best way you can balance the odds in your favour is to NOT draft for position, but to read the scouting reports and decide who the best player/option may be for you. If you want an example of luck, this guy was drafted late on day 2 of the 3rd round last year. There're plenty more examples.

#39951	09/23/2016 4:29:36 pm
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9600 Haverhill Halflings III.1	NOT draft for position, but to read the scouting reports and decide who the best player/option may be for you. Definitely do this. And don't draft that "Very Good" potential pitcher who is "Wild". There are plenty of other threads on here where people showed the math. There is a small increase in odds the earlier you draft. I just don't think its significant enough to mandate you draft early. Just do it when you have time. Like amalric said, there is a lot of luck involved. It's a lotto ticket, and you can pull a winner any time of the day. Updated Friday, September 23 2016 @ 4:31:40 pm PDT

#39985	09/25/2016 12:21:04 am
FurySK Joined: 02/07/2015 Posts: 299 Inactive	Nothing better than playing this game for some time, going for probably close to 35-40 guys with 25 claims or less on them (18 with between 2 and 9 claims), and watching one team take 20% of the guys by himself. The colts literally won so many that he released half back to FA. I understand we want to keep potential abusive methods of moving talent out of this game, but i would also concur with at least some views that the current system does not give high confidence that it works properly either.

#39989	09/25/2016 6:22:28 am
Bridger Joined: 08/04/2016 Posts: 264 Muncie Flyers III.4	FurySK: "The colts literally won so many that he released half back to FA." For anyone curious, here are all of my successful waiver claims from this offseason. I spent roughly an hour a day combing the wire to try and re-stock the disastrous minor league system I inherited when I took over the team a month ago. A player in bold is someone I have since released: Fernando Narváez P 19 Waiver Claim [1 claims] Freddie Schultz 3B 18 Waiver Claim [1 claims] Curtis Bergen 3B 18 Waiver Claim [1 claims] Gerardo Lopez C 19 Waiver Claim [2 claims] Nathan Ford P 27 Waiver Claim [14 claims] Tracy Sizemore P 17 Waiver Claim [5 claims] Martín Gutiérrez P 20 Waiver Claim [1 claims] Jimmy Bosco P 22 Waiver Claim [2 claims] Denny Harrington OF 24 Waiver Claim [4 claims] Clyde Duffy OF 30 Waiver Claim [1 claims] Ron Riley P 20 Waiver Claim [1 claims] Adrián Portillo P 19 Waiver Claim [6 claims] Otis Monroe OF 25 Waiver Claim [22 claims] Josué Camacho P 17 Waiver Claim [7 claims] Jesse Cook 3B 22 Waiver Claim [6 claims] Jim Bolton 1B 24 Waiver Claim [2 claims] Matìj Černý 3B 24 Waiver Claim [1 claims] Jose Mata P 23 Waiver Claim [21 claims] Days: 6 Claims Placed: 120+ Succesful Claims: 18 [1 claims]: 7 [2-10 claims]: 8 [11+ claims]: 3 Already Released: 6 Already Relased [1 claims]: 4 Updated Sunday, September 25 2016 @ 6:34:49 am PDT

#39992	09/25/2016 7:15:14 am
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9600 Haverhill Halflings III.1	Bridger may have actually been behind the curve as well in terms of odds. Depending on the #claims on the ones he lost, he possibly should have picked up a few more. Definitely not particularly lucky. There have been cases where some teams (particularly a couple of Legend teams) have gotten extraordinarily good luck and picked up multiple 40+ claims guys on consecutive days. Some folks are getting unlucky, and that has to balance with some folks getting lucky. The longer you play the game, the more likely you will just have average luck over your tenure. Humans aren't particularly good at interpreting odds, so I suspect most people with average luck are seeing a couple cases of good luck and assuming they are having bad luck. For instance, I have seen lots of people posting about how they put 10 claims on 10 guys with 10 claims so they *should* have gotten one. The mistake here is thinking that odds are additive. And somehow you have 100% chance when you make that tenth claim. The actual odds of winning at least one claim out of 10 (with 10 claims on them) is 1 - 9^10 / 10^10. So you have a 65% chance of winning one claim when you put 10 claims on ten guys with 10 claims. In fact, if you make 20 claims on 10 guys with 10 claims, you have an 88% chance to win 1. So not even a guarantee to win 1, never mind the expectation most people have that they *should* win 2. This inflated sense of probability (very natural in all humans which is why casinos make money) leads many folks with average to above average luck to think they have bad luck. If you want to win claims, you have to put a lot in. I put in a ton of claims (and generally only win the claims I didn't really want). Updated Sunday, September 25 2016 @ 7:44:09 am PDT

#39993	09/25/2016 7:16:52 am
Bridger Joined: 08/04/2016 Posts: 264 Muncie Flyers III.4	Rock777: If you want to win claims, you have to put a lot in. I put in a ton of claims (and generally only win the claims I didn't really want). This ^

#40021	09/25/2016 9:06:23 pm
FurySK Joined: 02/07/2015 Posts: 299 Inactive	This offseason, i didn't track my claims with precision, but i would say that it fell short of 120. I'd guess i had 50 less. The colts were an easy example of an uneven distribution amongst lower claim wins in the market i was after. Both of your multiple claim returns to FA were guys i initially put a claim in on (and i once again have claims on both). But it's not really about me and you, it's about the perception that somehow this waiver system is the best this game is ever going to be able to put together. I'd rather seem more discussion about solutions that aren't this exact waiver format.

#40029	09/26/2016 5:47:49 am
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9600 Haverhill Halflings III.1	There have been a lot of discussions on the waiver system in the past.