Broken Bat - Discussion Forum: Bunting

Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date	Function

#16369	03/20/2015 9:40:42 pm
MukilteoMike Joined: 08/09/2014 Posts: 3294 Inactive	As I said, I do think there are times that it makes sense to bunt. That's why I have a minus or double minus on some guys and not the x. Bunting with one out, though, is scoring suicide in almost every situation. (I'm assuming we're playing Broken Bat/American League rules. The game changes completely when pitchers come to bat.) For the guys who sometimes drop one down to try for a hit, it rarely works (getting a bunt single, that is) in situations where a sacrifice bunt is a decent play because the defense realizes both are true. As a result, they'll be prepared for it and play in a bit. In that situation, if you simply want the sacrifice, go for it. On the other hand, if the corners are in anticipating the bunt, the batter has a slightly better chance to get a full-swing hit. Updated Friday, March 20 2015 @ 9:47:23 pm PDT

#16370	03/20/2015 9:43:37 pm
newtman Joined: 11/02/2013 Posts: 3343 Inactive	But we probably shouldn't get into politics on these boards... Agreed on that. It all starts with data and methods, garbage in, garbage out.

#16412	03/22/2015 5:19:54 am
Jayman Joined: 01/22/2015 Posts: 89 Inactive	@Newtman. Yes I can agree with you on that numbers never lie it is the person who is manipulating them that skews the results by leaving unwanted numbers out. So yes I see your point. Don't blame the stats, blame the guy presenting them. I did recently hear a great report on NPR about 4th down and short in the NFL which lends itself well to this discussion. Some stats nerd compiled all the recorded results in NFL history for 4th and short plays (short being considered less than 3 yards). Traditionally coaches will punt, but the stats say that more often than not if you go for it you will be successful. However this brings the debate of stats vs experience and that gets to the heart of the matter. Stats consider all relevant situations but perhaps not all the variables within each specific situation. If it's 4th and short, your team is up by a field goal with two minutes left - yeah you might have a better than 50% chance to make the first down but if it doesn't pan out and you lose them boy that coach is an asshole who should have punted the ball. So I guess that means when it comes to sports stats are great hindsight evaluations but in the moment perhaps relying on the instincts of an experienced manager is better.

#16416	03/22/2015 7:19:31 am
Tiger504 Joined: 06/17/2014 Posts: 1314 Kalamazoo Bloody Tigers III.4	Statistics are used and interpreted with an eye towards the agenda of the person using them. They can be used for good or evil. Statistics however are not good or evil, they just are. So it is the person behind the statistics we should wary of. Multiple people can look at a single set of data and draw a myriad of conclusions.

#16419	03/22/2015 8:26:02 am
newtman Joined: 11/02/2013 Posts: 3343 Inactive	Statistics are used and interpreted with an eye towards the agenda of the person using them. They can be used for good or evil. Statistics however are not good or evil, they just are. So it is the person behind the statistics we should wary of. Multiple people can look at a single set of data and draw a myriad of conclusions. Not always true, I wrote two papers in grad school where the conclusions I drew didn't match the hypothesis I started with. That is called going where the data leads you.

#16422	03/22/2015 10:34:38 am
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9592 Haverhill Halflings III.1	That's good science, unfortunately once you get out into the real world you are often being paid for your hypothesis being true. Coming up with different findings can get you fired.

#16423	03/22/2015 12:19:11 pm
Slug5373 Joined: 12/23/2014 Posts: 376 Inactive	@ Jayman Of course you wouldn't go for EVERY fourth and short opportunity you have. It's all about context. I am typically against bunting because statistics show that more runs are scored refraining the bunt. HOWEVER, they also show that your chances of scoring ONE run increase. With this in mind, you are down one run in the bottom of the ninth, man on 2nd base and no outs with your highly defensive catcher who's not much of a hitter at the plate. Assuming you do not have no players left on your bench, why wouldn't you bunt? Context, context, context Updated Sunday, March 22 2015 @ 12:20:07 pm PDT

#16430	03/22/2015 3:18:51 pm
Jayman Joined: 01/22/2015 Posts: 89 Inactive	Slug. That's what I was getting at. I'm in agreement with you.

#16435	03/22/2015 4:28:16 pm
newtman Joined: 11/02/2013 Posts: 3343 Inactive	That's good science, unfortunately once you get out into the real world you are often being paid for your hypothesis being true. Coming up with different findings can get you fired. Which leads to bad products, and ultimately shoddy policies.

#16436	03/22/2015 4:45:15 pm
Jayman Joined: 01/22/2015 Posts: 89 Inactive	Which is exactly the position we find our world in today. The end. ... unless of course someone wants to keep going around in these circles. 😃