Broken Bat - Discussion Forum: Draft Day 2/20/15

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Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date	Function

#15103	02/21/2015 1:58:09 pm
MrTwoPlums Joined: 04/14/2012 Posts: 213 Inactive	I have gotten a grand total of 4 13s in the past season and a half and one 14 What's wrong with that? I'd call that a good run in any of the seasons that I've been here for.

#15111	02/21/2015 5:12:14 pm
Brewnoe Joined: 03/25/2014 Posts: 816 Fall River Naughty Dawgs IV.5	Another ok one for me. Ross - 17yo VG-13 51si L/L 1B I have gotten a grand total of 4 13s in the past season and a half and one 14 What's wrong with that? I'd call that a good run in any of the seasons that I've been here for. It's an oversimplification to reduce it to just X potential players per season. But 5 13+'s in a season and a half sounds good to me too. If you need an example of a high pot / low worth - Angel is a 14 pot, but he's still supposed to be in A ball @ 24. If i get lucky and win the César Bautista sweepstakes, it's 50/50 Angel will be my drop.

#15135	02/22/2015 6:46:35 am
newtman Joined: 11/02/2013 Posts: 3343 Inactive	If you need an example of a high pot / low worth - Angel is a 14 pot, but he's still supposed to be in A ball @ 24. Two things are wrong with it, the first is illustrated here... that not all players pan out to their potential. The second, is that it was calculated somewhere awhile back the replacement rate needed in order to be able to have a full team to be about 3-4 players per season, if you are only getting 3 through the draft then that means every one of them needs to pan out or you need to use waivers/free agency to make up the difference. When everyone is in this same boat, there simply isn't enough competitive talent to go around. One can argue that 12s make excellent DHs or relievers with the correct skill sets, but they become either a liability in the field or at bat in any other position.

#15137	02/22/2015 6:59:48 am
MukilteoMike Joined: 08/09/2014 Posts: 3294 Inactive	Here's where your argument falls flat, Newtman... When everyone is in this same boat, there simply isn't enough competitive talent to go around. Do you see it? If everyone is in the same boat, it IS competitive.

#15138	02/22/2015 7:01:55 am
Haselrig Joined: 04/13/2014 Posts: 2790 Novi Doubledays III.4	Just as an example of the talent lag, of the fourteen position players on my major league roster, only one was not a waiver claim. I'm just now getting draft picks into AAA. That's a three season lag that i had to overcome with shotgunning waivers and leafing through endless player cards. Seems to be paying off now though. I think I'm going to be producing quality free agents very soon instead of consuming them.

#15139	02/22/2015 7:08:52 am
Haselrig Joined: 04/13/2014 Posts: 2790 Novi Doubledays III.4	I think you might be better off not getting Bautista, Brewnoe. I think he's going to be a frustrating guy to have on your squad.

#15141	02/22/2015 7:12:46 am
newtman Joined: 11/02/2013 Posts: 3343 Inactive	Do you see it? If everyone is in the same boat, it IS competitive. In 7-10 seasons, maybe, but the talent buildup on some rosters will just reinforce their dominance in the mean time without giving others a chance to build up theirs.

#15146	02/22/2015 8:47:13 am
MukilteoMike Joined: 08/09/2014 Posts: 3294 Inactive	I agree with you there, Newtman. Assuming the talent pool has been reduced (we don't know if that's the case or not), it really doesn't change anything. I joined about half a year ago and quickly saw it would take many seasons before I could even dream about competing in the upper leagues. The worst pitchers/players on Legend teams were better than my best guys. While that is frustrating, and I'm sure a large reason why many new owners quit, that challenge actually increased my interest in the game. The playing field is far from level here for new owners. I don't think that will ever change.

#15149	02/22/2015 9:41:43 am
newtman Joined: 11/02/2013 Posts: 3343 Inactive	Assuming the talent pool has been reduced (we don't know if that's the case or not) The number of total recruits in the pools were reduced, that has been proven, and the ratio of good to bad recruits seems to have stayed the same based on the number of bad recruits still seen. Therefore we can actually conclusively say that the talent pools have been reduced. THAT is precisely what I have been arguing needs to be changed. Can I prove this 100%? No, because only Steve has those numbers, but I'd be willing to wager a large amount I'm right on this, and I don't gamble normally.

#15156	02/22/2015 11:50:59 am
MrTwoPlums Joined: 04/14/2012 Posts: 213 Inactive	I personally think it should take a few seasons of plugging holes with FA's while trying to build up core youth. I don't think anyone should expect to instantly compete with the top tier teams within their first few seasons. It took most of us awhile playing the long game to build a solid foundation and ride it to the top. However I understand that with the smaller draft pools and the sheer amount of players now competing for talent, it's much harder to do that today and will be even harder tomorrow. I think the biggest problem is not necessarily the draft pools (too early to tell, though it doesn't look promising) or available talent through waivers/FA's, but the actual starting state of new players taking over bunk teams. It seems like most competitive players like to start in the lower leagues and take the team from the bottom up and put their own stamp on things. Few players want to inherit an upper tier "winner" and ride someone else's coattails to glory. But the state of most of these lower tier teams is just abysmal- fighting bankruptcy, crippled prospects, little talent and no depth. Taking over teams in these situations will take 5+ seasons just to get them back on track if you're lucky. I think if we can find a way to improve things for new players it could go a long way to taking the pressure off some of the other issues. Minimum starting balance, bot teams not calling up unready prospects and killing them, maybe double draft picks for a season, or Seca's idea about priority claims, but only for new lower tier players. If we can give the new guys something better to work with, they won't need to flip over their entire 50 man roster in their first couple seasons and they can focus more on improving their team on a case by case basis for the long run instead of having to throw claims at any and every decent player out there and hoping something sticks. I don't think it should be easy to build a contender. It should take time, good management and some luck of course, but new teams seem to have too much fixing to do before they can focus on building the groundwork for the future.