Broken Bat - Discussion Forum: How long of a leash?

Forum >> Discussions >> How long of a leash?

Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date	Function

#14981	02/19/2015 1:48:43 pm
newtman Joined: 11/02/2013 Posts: 3343 Inactive	I never said that I agreed with the "500 ABs theory" as I don't, but either that was meant in response to Seca, or you didn't read my whole post. I have a roster of players in their primes, thus none need to be replaced yet unless the newcomer is going to be better. None of the 13 potentials that I cut were going to be better than the 13 potentials on my roster, thus the lack of patience. Admittedly, I stated it more bluntly in this post, but that is what I was saying in my previous post. Updated Thursday, February 19 2015 @ 1:51:07 pm PST

#14982	02/19/2015 2:11:17 pm
Peekay Joined: 03/26/2014 Posts: 146 Inactive	Wasn't having a crack at you newt! Was more replying to Seca's discussion points on players scuffling when new to the majors.

#14985	02/19/2015 2:56:47 pm
Seca Joined: 05/05/2014 Posts: 5201 Waterloo Dinosaurs Legends	500 AB isn't a theory. Just a number. Did say it could all be in my head. . There was a team a few years ago - Jacksonville I think - that made it all the way to the cup final with a team full of green 20 somethings. thought it was amazing. I expect my guys to play poorly as they break in. For the few that don't, its a pleasant surprise. . 8 of 9 in my starting line-up broke in with me. 6 of 8 batted in the low 200s their first season or two. Not sure what Curtis proves. Batted .280 in VI his first year. VI pitching can be good. Can also be very, very bad. Since then he hasn't had 200 ABs in a season. For a guy with that few ABs, the difference between 220 and 270 is like 8 hits. Can't have a stat based argument without some sample size.

#14990	02/19/2015 3:57:29 pm
afreespirit Joined: 09/17/2011 Posts: 305 Inactive	I let John Roberts go after 8 minor league seasons and 2 seasons in the majors. He hit .200 (100AB) his rookie season and .142 (113AB) his sophomore season. He was not living up to the "great hitter" label.

#14991	02/19/2015 4:02:46 pm
Peekay Joined: 03/26/2014 Posts: 146 Inactive	That's brutal afreespirit! Would have loved to have collected him on the waiver wire! Must say though, being you are in legends you are definitely doing things right so I might have to add a little more brutality into my young guys (I basically rarely cut anyone < 30 with unfulfilled potential and 13+pot).

#14993	02/19/2015 4:22:21 pm
newtman Joined: 11/02/2013 Posts: 3343 Inactive	Peekay, sorry, under a lot of stress today and tomorrow, that last post came out way meaner than I meant (didn't intend to be mean). Seca, I think Peekay was proving that 500 ABs doesn't "break in" a player as Curtis got 612 ABs his rookie season, but has gained 12 more SI since then. I think the cross-communication is from the implication that after the first 500 ABs the development is done, when usually for batters it takes a few seasons of development regardless of the number of ABs.

#15002	02/19/2015 6:57:37 pm
Peekay Joined: 03/26/2014 Posts: 146 Inactive	I guess I was more referring to performance stabilising after 500AB's The Curtis example wasn't great but was the best I've got - .800+ops in first season, then around the same in ~150 AB's second season (with me/tougher division) now this season scuffling around .650 OPS at ~ 200 AB's For all that defended Kato you will be pleased to hear he had a good series today (7/20 1x2B, 2xHR, 4xBB for a triple slash of .350/.550/.700) Saved his skin for another day.

#16061	03/15/2015 4:45:54 pm
Peekay Joined: 03/26/2014 Posts: 146 Inactive	Bringing this back for all the people who took an interest. After Kato had a reasonable mid season bounce back (got himself around .800 OPS) he has gone on another terrible cold streak. http://brokenbat.org/player/60362 Now sitting at .241/.346/.387 on the season! And his form line vomit - .048/.200/.048 OPS .248, 42AB, 8BB, 5K The decision has been made to cut him at the end of the season! His vs. LHP line isn't as good as it may appear based solely on average either (.273/.378/.410 - .788 OPS) Updated Sunday, March 15 2015 @ 4:47:01 pm PDT

#16062	03/15/2015 4:57:57 pm
Peekay Joined: 03/26/2014 Posts: 146 Inactive	Argh! Need to vent more! I'm in a massive fight to stay in DIV 4. Get my best and most reliable pitcher back from a long injury in time to play in 3 games and he puts up this: 3G, 3L, ERA 14.00, BAA .438, WHIP 2.889, 9IP, 21H, 5BB, 6K, 4HR This to go with Kato (above post) and a whole host of other guys floundering!

#16063	03/15/2015 5:19:07 pm
newtman Joined: 11/02/2013 Posts: 3343 Inactive	Perhaps you should try my strategy of holding on to good players even though they are bad in the field temporarily. :P