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MukilteoMike
Joined: 08/09/2014
Posts: 3294

Inactive

Broken Bat Baseball
Does anyone think they had a pitcher that should have won the Cy Young, but didn't? Or flipping that around, was anyone surprised their guy won it? Any examples would be appreciated. The Neyer/James formula is popular enough to have landed on ESPN the last I'm-not-sure-how-many years, and I thought I'd throw the close battles into that calculation to see how they compare.
Tiger504
Joined: 06/17/2014
Posts: 1314

Kalamazoo Bloody Tigers
IV.7

Broken Bat Baseball
I'll give you one.

My guy, Lloyd Barton won it and I expected him to. He had a 21-7 record with other supporting stats as well. However I was worried about Santa Rosa's Will Jensen who had 22 wins in relief.
When the final votes were in, Barton ran away with the Cy Young while Jensen finished either 3rd or not on the board. No one else was close to either of them in wins.
MukilteoMike
Joined: 08/09/2014
Posts: 3294

Inactive

Broken Bat Baseball
With just one example I think it's safe to say the Neyer/James predictor isn't anything like what is used here. That formula gives a small bonus to pitchers on playoff teams, which I'll ignore since the playoff structure is vastly different here. Neyer/James agreed with your assessment that Jensen should have been a threat to Barton, but that wasn't the case at all. Here are the numbers with Broken Bat first, Neyer/James second:

Lloyd Barton..............35-183
Emilio Gil...................28-139
Oswaldo Rodriguez...19-143
Will Jensen................13-164
Javier Nieves.............5-112

**Barton and Jensen were both on division winners (the only playoff teams here), so they would be bumped up even further with Neyer/James.

For those who are unfamiliar with it, the Neyer/James formula isn't about saying who is the best pitcher, it's about predicting who will win the Cy Young award. For what it's worth, I think Broken Bat's rankings with the above example are much better than Neyer/James. Despite the huge number of vulture wins and handful of saves, Jensen's ERA and WHIP are considerably worse than the others.


Updated Monday, January 5 2015 @ 11:24:04 pm PST


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