Broken Bat - Discussion Forum: Draft Day 12/12/05

Forum >> Discussions >> Draft Day 12/12/05

Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date	Function

#12607	12/12/2014 7:40:46 am
newtman Joined: 11/02/2013 Posts: 3343 Inactive	Had the choice between a "good" lefty pitcher with no listed pluses other than stamina, or Morris. No where near as good as everyone else it seems, and only actually two good prospects found this season. Down year for my scouting department, then again with two 15 pots pulled today by people, maybe I could pull another 15 pot on the last day like last season. In order for those guys to have lasted this long with the pools this much smaller this season either very few teams actually draft each week, the game holds a few back from being shown til late in the season, or many people don't know what they're doing when drafting.

#12608	12/12/2014 8:19:31 am
Seca Joined: 05/05/2014 Posts: 5199 Waterloo Dinosaurs Legends	Didn't the high school / college / Latin pools start around 3500? Suggests around 1k teams pulling each week. I have no trouble seeing how these players "last". Heck, even today I had 2 viable choices (though Bagley's scouting was more compelling).

#12611	12/12/2014 9:37:19 am
Seca Joined: 05/05/2014 Posts: 5199 Waterloo Dinosaurs Legends	Was goofing around a little with some probabilites. Lots of assumptions, and probably errors. Assuming a pool of 12k players, with drawing 5 each week, with 1k players removed from the pool each week, your chance of seeing a particular player is: Week % 1 0.042 2 0.045 3 0.05 4 0.056 5 0.062 6 0.071 7 0.083 8 0.1 With 1k managers pulling, the chances he is seen by someone each week (1000x posted above): 1 42 2 45 3 50 4 55 5 62 6 71 7 83 8 100 So ya, by week 3 a particular player should have been seen by someone. It would be pretty hard to get to week 8 without making an appearance. But getting seen and getting chosen are (obviously) different. If there is less "fluff" in the pool, there would be more very good vs. very good. Updated Friday, December 12 2014 @ 9:49:13 am PST

#12613	12/12/2014 10:45:43 am
newtman Joined: 11/02/2013 Posts: 3343 Inactive	So ya, by week 3 a particular player should have been seen by someone. It would be pretty hard to get to week 8 without making an appearance. But getting seen and getting chosen are (obviously) different. If there is less "fluff" in the pool, there would be more very good vs. very good. That also assumes Steve only cut "fluff" as opposed to just making the pool smaller. Considering I got a total of one good prospect (listed as good, not really a keeper) in the first 4 weeks, it looks proportionally smaller as opposed to just cutting fluff. It is promising that the 15s are showing up for most people who draft (and post) if they draft every week for 3 or 4 seasons, but the amount of fluff that I was seeing at the start of this season was truly disturbing given the smaller total numbers in the pools. I guess I had the shoddy luck this season to make up for the good luck last season. Updated Friday, December 12 2014 @ 10:53:40 am PST

#12615	12/12/2014 1:11:14 pm
Jynxed Joined: 08/26/2013 Posts: 284 Inactive	I feel like this season hasn't went well for me draft wise overall, maybe i'll have some better luck next season.

#12616	12/12/2014 2:03:57 pm
Tiger504 Joined: 06/17/2014 Posts: 1314 Kalamazoo Bloody Tigers III.4	I don't know exactly what conclusion to draw yet about drafting this year. Out of 8 picks I have 4 still on my roster. 2 marginal pitchers and 2 potentially outstanding C/3B one of which is 15 pot I think the fluff is still there in the same percentage as before as these prospects are randomly generated...there are just fewer of everything. I like the numbers Seca even if didn't spend the time to totally comprehend them. I trust your analysis. However with only 756 teams I think 1k pulls a week is unlikely. More like 350-500 would be my guess. And I think that would let some of these prospects slide further.

#12617	12/12/2014 3:09:23 pm
Holmes Joined: 11/07/2013 Posts: 1175 Inactive	Seca, I kept some tabs of draft pools, and since I'm usually one of the first drafting each week (advantage of being in a time zone where real MLB games are in the middle of the night), I should be pretty close to the original numbers. Total pool size was close to 6000 at the beginning of this season (5948 when I looked). That's down from over 9000 the seasons before. I mentioned that in another thread and Steve commented that that was a deliberate reduction. Between 400 and 450 players are drafted each week. Updated Friday, December 12 2014 @ 3:10:13 pm PST

#12622	12/12/2014 10:14:30 pm
MukilteoMike Joined: 08/09/2014 Posts: 3294 Inactive	Here's a little different look... There are 756 teams. I'm going to use a lowball estimate of 26 major league players per team (I randomly chose leagues and they averaged 27.6). Let's say a player has an average career of 7 years in the majors at Broken Bat (admittedly, that's a pure guess; I have no idea what it is. there are some who will have a dozen, but also lots who will barely make an appearance.). That means on average teams need to get 3.7 new players a year. That number is drafted players, not free agents/waivers (they merely circulate around). The biggest problem with that equation is that the bot teams don't generate their fair share of talent, at least not from what I can tell. That means active teams need to generate more. How much more I'm not sure, but I'm sure it raises the number to 4+, and probably is closer to 5.

#12627	12/13/2014 11:53:23 am
newtman Joined: 11/02/2013 Posts: 3343 Inactive	I've seen some better players on bot teams than on some players' teams. Some players consistently mess up their players development. Factoring that in it goes closer to 6. That isn't how it works though, in reality some teams just end up fielding a team with some inferior players.

#12629	12/13/2014 3:03:28 pm
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9596 Haverhill Halflings III.1	I haven't gotten anyone good all year and I draft every week. The best player I've drafted was a 19 year old pitcher with 13 POT and 21 SI (Miguel Tejeda). 13 POT was a nice surprise as he was the first player I've drafted with more than 12, but with only 21 SI at 19 years old... I dropped him. I started playing this game back in October and that guy was the best I drafted. I haven't had a single keeper since I started playing... Updated Saturday, December 13 2014 @ 3:06:16 pm PST