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newtman
Joined: 11/02/2013
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I get it that hot streaks and cold streaks come to an end, and that this game doesn't base results of an AB on whether a player is hot or not, but it is ridiculously predictable that a pitcher playing extremely well will fall apart at the end of the year. I'd had at least one pitcher every season overachieve until around mid-September, and then blow up almost every time he entered for the rest of the season. This season Gordon and McIntyre fell apart in October. Last season it was Peralta if I recall correctly. Why can't guys seem to finish out an outstanding season?
Peekay
Joined: 03/26/2014
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I don't believe that is the case and I think you've just been unlucky.

Last year my ace Rodney Porter started the year like a house on fire (<1.5ish ERA through first half of year) then fell away.

This year however he has gone completely opposite with a slow start in the first half turning into a huge second half.

Really I think sample size plays into it here, a sample of 1 or 2 players over a span of 1-3 seasons is hardly enough to call it a trend. We would need to collect statistics from a huge group of teams to see if there was any predictable trend.
newtman
Joined: 11/02/2013
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I've been playing 5 seasons, 3 with Raleigh and 2 before that with a team that was at the time Kingfort Hills. Regardless, I'm well aware of the sample size issue, thus why I created the thread for discussion. I have also had players that had slow starts that vastly improved, but that misses the point. I'm talking players that were having outstanding seasons until they always seem to collapse in the last few weeks of the season.
admin
Joined: 01/27/2010
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There is absolutely nothing in the game engine that promotes "Regression to the Mean". If it happens, its just the probability gods.

Steve
newtman
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Thanks, at least that is a definitive answer.
Seca
Joined: 05/05/2014
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Aye. Bit of a relief to hear that. :)

When my guys get up 7-8 I often find myself saying "That's enough guys. Stop hitting. Going to need those runs later in the season. Stop hitting. Stop ... *sigh*".

And then when the team plays like the Bad News Bears for the final two months, Mr. Confirmation Bias shows up at the door and says "Umm hmm. Told you so."

Newtman's pitchers just have poor form? Is form a real thing or a manifestation of random? I swear all my batters had a stretch at some point during the season where they could not make contact with the ball and struck out frequently (we call it getting the Ks. "Uh oh, Felix has the Ks."). Home runs and errors also sometimes seem to come in bunches. Maybe I'm being tricked.

PS - I moused over Gordon's recent form. Shows a 1.250 BA against. Now that's some poor recent form. :P

Updated Tuesday, October 7 2014 @ 10:43:37 am PDT
admin
Joined: 01/27/2010
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PS - I moused over Gordon's recent form. Shows a 1.250 BA against. Now that's some poor recent form. :P


Thanks...I was plugging the statistics in the formula function wrong and was getting Hits/Outs rather than Hits/At Bats. Hence the usually batting average against.


Steve
newtman
Joined: 11/02/2013
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Watching him the past week it seemed like other teams were batting 1.250 against him. The 4 hits, 4 runs, 4 earned runs, and 0 outs performance was especially painful as a blown save when battling for a pennant with a team that won 115 games. Margin for implosions is slim.

He got a save today though in the playoffs, on a much more characteristic flawless performance. The probability gods are again in Gordon's favor.


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