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michaeltodd2
Joined: 02/20/2018
Posts: 325

Paradise Valley Cubs
III.3

Broken Bat Baseball
For some time now I have been operating with the belief that minus a few caveats, that minor league stats can reveal how a player will do in the majors. It seemed that as soon as I started putting a premium on them, particularly with my pitching staff, that is when my team started moving out of the basement of league 6 and started climbing. I'm currently in League 3. With amatuer/overseas stats, as far as I can tell though, I see no connection between amateur/overseas stats and how a player will perform in the majors. Recently though, after scouring the waiver wire for older veteran pitchers in their 30's, I seem to have stumbled upon a lot of pitchers with horrible minor league stats that went on to have great careers, with multiple seasons of All-Star and All League awarding performances. These players I was looking at had a full slate of minor league stats, from rookie to AAA, so it wasn't a matter of a small sample size. So now I'm beginning to wonder?? Is there a real connection...? Any thoughts gang?
Rock777
Joined: 09/21/2014
Posts: 9569

Haverhill Halflings
III.1

Broken Bat Baseball
There are lots of factors in play. Like how quickly a player goes through the system, or how much early experience they gained through spring training. One thing for sure, the minor league stats can give you some info on tendencies (GB/FB, stealing aggressiveness, etc.) Lots of valuable information, but just because a guy his a ton in the minors doesn't guarantee he continues. Reverse is the same. Some guys get pushed through quickly, and their numbers won't always be great because they move up before they are a crushing it at any level. Other guys move through slowly, and are crushing the ball, but then they cap. Some players may not look great in the minors, but have a high cap, so they keep improving in the majors. While other players dominate the majors, but hit their caps very early, and don't scale to the majors. Plus you have RNG to deal with. So I think there is a lot of value in the minor stats, but I think you also need to look at everything through a wide lense.
electriceel883
Joined: 05/26/2021
Posts: 1494

Irvine Infernos
II.2

Broken Bat Baseball
I think its valuable for tendencies, however I have seen many players both improve a lot, and actually regress from where they were in Amateur/Prep. For example Lagos, his control has developed REALLY slowly and didnt improve his control in the minors at all from prep. Thats pretty unusual. I find control is one thing most players improve, but generally stay with their tendencies to some degree. With hitters I would say prep is not great at predictions
todd
Joined: 01/30/2020
Posts: 144

Wellington Phoenix
Legends

Broken Bat Baseball
Good info, I really like the point that how quickly or slowly they move through the minors affecting their stats. From now on i'll have to keep an eye out for that.
michaeltodd2
Joined: 02/20/2018
Posts: 325

Paradise Valley Cubs
III.3

Broken Bat Baseball
As far as I can tell, Amateur stats are almost always inflated, good or bad stats.


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