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Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date	Function
#71982	03/12/2020 4:55:26 am	Sep 8th, 2044	Ignore
Frankebasta Joined: 09/15/2013 Posts: 884 Kodiak Mules III.3	FWIW, i agree with Seca I understand it could be just smoke and mirrors but it makes for more fun
#71983	03/12/2020 6:33:49 am	Sep 8th, 2044	Ignore
miszapatos Joined: 11/02/2019 Posts: 65 Manteca Cerdos V.3	I only have a couple of seasons of gaming experience, but the streaks I've observed from some players indicate to me that there is definitely a hidden factor of around 20-30% that adds or subtracts from player abilities. Those streaks that players have could not only be the result of chance, but must be the result of a hidden value that adds or subtracts to abilities. Another thing is that what we know in the game as "Form" is nothing more than a reflection of the player's performance. Seeing how the players behave, everything seems to indicate that the form does not change if the players do not play, at least it does not improve if an indeterminate number of games do not pass. That is at least what I have been able to observe.
#71987	03/12/2020 4:25:34 pm	Sep 10th, 2044	Ignore
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9596 Haverhill Halflings III.1	It could definitely be the results of random chance. That's how chance works. First you roll a bunch of sixes, then suddenly you hit a streak of ones. It may be a variable or it may be chance. Only Steve knows for sure, and hopefully he never lets the cat out of the bag
#72013	03/13/2020 11:59:02 pm	Sep 14th, 2044	Ignore
michaeltodd2 Joined: 02/20/2018 Posts: 325 Paradise Valley Cubs II.2	Yes, regression to the mean, i can kind of see and feel it in Hattrick, playing over a few seasons...but i don't feel it here in Broken Bat. My guy Alvarez, was hot and very hot thru almost the entire first half. This half, he's been cold and very cold most of the time...i keep waiting for it to 'float back' the other way but it doesn't. It's very frustrating, because i can very often predict whether or not i'm going to win with a particular pitcher based on his Form.
#72015	03/14/2020 7:11:06 am	Sep 14th, 2044	Ignore
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9596 Haverhill Halflings III.1	Using regression to the mean results in very unrealistic and predictable results. So I'm glad we don't have anything like that in BB. If a guy who should be hitting .300 is hitting .250 for the year, I don't want to "know" he is going to hit .350 for the rest of the year. More realistic that he is just having a down year.
#72023	03/14/2020 4:37:53 pm	Sep 17th, 2044	Ignore
afreespirit Joined: 09/17/2011 Posts: 305 Inactive	I believe we do have a regression to the mean in BB. That's from 39 seasons worth of observations. It can happen with individual players as well as teams. The main pivot points are at 50 games, 80 games and 110 games. Dirk Kaiser was 13-1 for the first 50 games this season, then went 0-8 for the next 60. this was largely due to him being very cold during that period. The one game he has won since was a relief appearance. I'm hoping he has now regained a more normal performance level. If you have a career .250 hitter that hits .330 for the first half of a season, he will almost certainly hit below .200 for last 80 games.
#72024	03/14/2020 4:55:50 pm	Sep 17th, 2044	Ignore
wuggla Joined: 05/10/2013 Posts: 1059 Colorado Springs Vultures VI.28	It can happen with individual players as well as teams. The main pivot points are at 50 games, 80 games and 110 games. I agrees with that. My experience shows the game changes in 50, 80 & 110 both team & player adjust!!!
#72025	03/14/2020 5:14:50 pm	Sep 18th, 2044	Ignore
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9596 Haverhill Halflings III.1	Steve has said that we don't and I've had several player that flip-flop +/- .050 in AVG every year. Its pretty hard to explain a .050 back and forth if there is regression to the mean.
#72026	03/14/2020 5:17:44 pm	Sep 18th, 2044	Ignore
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9596 Haverhill Halflings III.1	If you have a career .250 hitter that hits .330 for the first half of a season, he will almost certainly hit below .200 for last 80 games. It is likely that a .250 hitter will start hitting worse just because he has been on a hot streak, but "certainly" is definitely an overstatement. I've had .250 career hitters end a season with .300 AVG, and vice versa. Updated Saturday, March 14 2020 @ 5:18:03 pm PDT
#72270	03/25/2020 9:41:18 pm	Nov 1st, 2044	Ignore
michaeltodd2 Joined: 02/20/2018 Posts: 325 Paradise Valley Cubs II.2	I don't understand why this has to be a secret. Wouldn't it be better, generally speaking, that we know the rules and how the game works?

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