Broken Bat - Help: Is this loss of form unusual?

Forum >> Help >> Is this loss of form unusual?

Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date	Function

#3783	06/30/2013 3:00:44 am
crackit Joined: 05/15/2013 Posts: 315 Anchorage Lawless IV.4	Enrique Villegas http://brokenbat.org/player/49361 has suffered what seems a phenomonal loss of form that has been the main contribution to Applewood Crossing slipping from first to third and out of the promotion race. Before 1-Aug-13 (game date) he was: G 85; AB 331; R 60; H 109; RBI 60 BA .329 OBP .384 SLG .653 From 1-Aug-13: G 50; AB 194; R 26; H 39; RBI 17 BA .201; OBP .259; SLG .443 He has had some injuries. I can't see any management aspects that would account. He may have reached his potential, but he is not of an age where his skills should be declining. His whole season form is still fine; it i just the stark comparison between the two parts of the season i don't understand. Do numbers average out over the season? Anyone got any ideas what is going on? I am trying to figure out if it is anything I have done.

#3785	06/30/2013 4:57:14 am
Mig2012 Joined: 09/26/2012 Posts: 547 Inactive	No idea. Where did you get those partial stats from?

#3786	06/30/2013 9:10:09 am
crackit Joined: 05/15/2013 Posts: 315 Anchorage Lawless IV.4	I have a spreadsheet So sad...

#3788	06/30/2013 2:17:50 pm
Mig2012 Joined: 09/26/2012 Posts: 547 Inactive	Hey, nothing wrong with some homemade stats.

#3794	06/30/2013 6:13:10 pm
admin Joined: 01/27/2010 Posts: 4985 Administrator	Hmmm...interesting. There is really no explanation for this other than small sample sizes. It does look like he was unusually hot at the beginning of the season and then dropped back to reality. There isn't anything in the game engine, that penalizes a player who hot to try to bring his stats back in line with historical average though. Steve

#3804	07/01/2013 2:19:32 am
crackit Joined: 05/15/2013 Posts: 315 Anchorage Lawless IV.4	You explanation is clear, I was looking for a reason for the different performance levels but though statistically unlikely "hot" and "cold" streaks can happen. I think it led to the team having a slightly false position in the league and we have fallen back to 8 games behind the leaders. I now need to find a way to close the gap next year. Enjoying the game though.

#11560	11/06/2014 3:36:01 pm
Hardcastle Joined: 11/03/2014 Posts: 25 Inactive	How often does form change? Also, form is not in the game manual.

#11562	11/06/2014 4:11:05 pm
pleflar Joined: 08/15/2014 Posts: 32 Inactive	"Form" is nothing more than a description of 'recent' performance. Unlike Hattrick, where "Form" is an actual quantitative variable that influences a player's skill levels, I am under the impression that BB uses that term to refer only to actual results. Since actual results are probabilistic, whether you're talking about irl baseball or BB, this seems to me to be a good usage of the term. It helps that BB, and baseball in general, has a much larger sample size than HT and, to a lesser degree, soccer/football. As Steve mentioned earlier, the issue is almost certainly sample size. A randomly selected subset of a population can quite easily look very different from the underlying population and this is particularly true when the sample is small.