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Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date	Function
#69804	11/26/2019 8:17:56 am	May 17th, 2043	Ignore
lostraven Joined: 07/02/2016 Posts: 1269 Corvallis Ravens II.1	@Seca: Mention of the ballpark interests me, as it's not necessarily an area I've scrutinized in relation to pitching performances. OK, I've given it some thought, particularly in regard to lefties, but not careful scrutiny. I've posted this elsewhere, but I'll state again that one of my primary goals since joining has been to not necessarily build a cavernous park like many others do. Corvallis Yard is closely modeled after PNC Park. Evaluations of whether it's a hitter's park, pitcher's park, or neutral have varied over the years. In the past it was considered more of a pitcher's park, but the 2019 park factor numbers put it more towards neutral. That being said, I've never calculated park factors for my park, let alone anyone else in my league. I may have an exercise to conduct tonight after work! Because as it stands now, I don't know for sure if Corvallis Yard is really hitter-friendly as you state. More importantly, even if it is, a question has to be asked: do I stray from the challenge I presented myself initially of trying to go to Legends with my park largely intact? The most significant changes I've made have been to the LF wall, and even then that's been moving it back five or ten feet, then forward again, then back. I really haven't changed anything else (I don't think I've changed foul territory). I've made it from VI to II with that park. I seem stuck at II and may even demote this season. Would backing off my challenge and turning my park into a cavern help me push to Legends? I don't know. P.S. Oh, you can see from my pitcher 1.35 GB/FB that I've really tried to limit the home run in Corvallis Yard. However, that also requires great defense, which I lack at a few spots right now. I think that's partially why I'm in the pickle I'm in right now with what all the errors I have. Updated Tuesday, November 26 2019 @ 8:27:08 am PST
#69807	11/26/2019 11:34:26 am	May 17th, 2043	Ignore
Seca Joined: 05/05/2014 Posts: 5198 Waterloo Dinosaurs Legends	I'm certainly not trying to push you off your mission. I've long been interested in how park factors relate to BrokenBat. But every time I start into it I quit. Finding the factor for a single park wouldn't be too bad, but would also be pretty meaningless. Have to do a bunch for comparison which makes for a monotonous task. I doubt the park makes a difference on promotion. Symmetrical effects and all. If most of your staff isn't HR prone; might do more harm than good trying to suit Oyekan.
#69812	11/26/2019 10:53:38 pm	May 21st, 2043	Ignore
MukilteoMike Joined: 08/09/2014 Posts: 3294 Inactive	Lostraven, I don't think the game is nearly as sophisticated as you may think. I'm confident each ballpark adjustment is a simple calculation across the entire field. You can't favor left or righties with your park. Add 30 feet to right field and take off 30 feet from left and I bet you end up with no adjustment to the ballpark. Similarly, I don't think having groundball pitchers will cause your infield to have more errors than flyball pitchers. I believe stuff like that is far beyond Broken Bat. Updated Tuesday, November 26 2019 @ 10:55:58 pm PST
#69814	11/27/2019 5:59:58 am	May 21st, 2043	Ignore
lostraven Joined: 07/02/2016 Posts: 1269 Corvallis Ravens II.1	@MukilteoMike I've played fantasy baseball since 2004 or so. One of the goals in fantasy baseball is trying to separate the fact from fiction, the valuable data from the noise. I tend to apply that axiom here as well, perhaps wrongly so. What am I seeing in the data, and how can I maximize my results? * When I see my pitching staff's current 5.38 ERA / 3.92 FIP, what does that tell me about their performance, and the defense behind them? * When I see 25 errors spread out across 15 players, what's bad luck and what's poor fielding? (I can say with certainty that Montoyo's and Santiago's errors are deserving, but is the rest largely bad luck?) * Earnhardt already has six wild pitches in 31 innings, representing 35% of my league leading 17 wild pitches. Is this a fluke or a sign of a declining pitcher who's losing Control? * As was previously mentioned, Martinez has given up 10 HR in 37 innings. Sign of how the rest of the season will play out for him or fluky game bad luck? You've been around long enough I imagine you've had times where your team was in a freefall and you struggled to find answers. What do you put your faith in? How do you separate fact from fluke in Broken Bat? Updated Wednesday, November 27 2019 @ 6:01:17 am PST
#69815	11/27/2019 6:17:48 am	May 21st, 2043	Ignore
Seca Joined: 05/05/2014 Posts: 5198 Waterloo Dinosaurs Legends	I'm confident each ballpark adjustment is a simple calculation across the entire field. I agree with this. I wasn't suggesting Oyecan was being especially penalized by LF in Corvallis yard. More that the park, as a whole, is smaller than what I consider "average". FWIW I suspect the average park here is larger than MLB, and that many replicas of MLB parks would be hitter friendly.
#69831	11/27/2019 9:54:21 pm	May 25th, 2043	Ignore
MukilteoMike Joined: 08/09/2014 Posts: 3294 Inactive	Lostraven, I often feel helpless in this game. I played Fantasy Baseball with basically the same group of guys for nearly two decades and generally felt like I was in control. That's not to say I always did well, but, as you put it, it wasn't that difficult for me to deal with noise. Here there are so many things going on and there doesn't seem to be any way to make sense of it all. That's partly why Broken Bat is fun. On the other hand, that's also what makes it annoying. Take the "new" managers, for example. Ignoring the many negatives about them that numerous owners have stated, we don't have any real knowledge about their impact. We've been told it's minor, but there's no way to know what that means. Will a 15 defense manager make a middle infielder .001 better? All infielders? Outfielders? Does it affect CS for catchers? No clue. And maybe the .001 is for 13...or maybe 20. Again, we have no idea. Similarly, what the heck does range get you? With range being team applied instead of by player, and with how plays are created, we have no idea what anything means. Making decisions about defense vs. offense are basically blind. It's not surprising lots of theories have been developed by owners. I have my own, which is essentially that I believe in Broken Bat seasonal fate. That's my way of dealing with all the noise. A season diverts largely from expectation? It is possibly due to BB fate, which is an artificial adjustment belched out by the BB gods for the season. I believe this is usually applied to individuals, but may also be doled out to teams in a similar fashion as manager's traits. That's my biggest tin foil theory. And it's all mine. Updated Wednesday, November 27 2019 @ 9:57:53 pm PST
#69837	11/28/2019 9:12:04 am	May 25th, 2043	Ignore
lostraven Joined: 07/02/2016 Posts: 1269 Corvallis Ravens II.1	I'll buy it, Mike. When, in the end, we still have little understanding what goes on in the little black box, it's tough to make sense of the results sometimes. How much are our struggles really within our control as players of the game? Maybe sometimes we can just call a player or a team "doomed" for a season. (A friend of mine with children refers to times when they are inexplicably cranky or bitter as "doomed." They're doomed, she says. You can't try to understand it. You just try to comfort them, and when that doesn't work, you let 'em work it out on their own [though still leave room for them to ask questions].) P.S. I've long wondered if somewhere in the black box players are programmatically assigned a modifier each season that slightly affects their play, their "hotness" if you will. Worst case, a player gets the maximum negative modifier and affects the player's performance more negatively. I guess that's not too far off from the "similar fashion as manager's traits" comment you made. Updated Thursday, November 28 2019 @ 9:17:24 am PST
#69838	11/28/2019 9:21:43 am	May 25th, 2043	Ignore
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9593 Haverhill Halflings III.1	Its definitely possibly. I have a number of players who seem to do poorly (and welly) exactly every other year. That's one of the reasons I haven't tried to hard to get Gumby in the lineup this year. He is due for a bad year. Of course its also entirely possible that it is simply apophenia. Gumby does have horrendous BC, which means there should be a lot more variance in his numbers than a typical player. Updated Thursday, November 28 2019 @ 9:25:16 am PST
#69842	11/28/2019 4:11:20 pm	May 27th, 2043	Ignore
Hayseed Joined: 02/20/2018 Posts: 290 Hood River Hawks IV.1	I have pretty much assumed there is an algorithm for individual players to have good/bad season fluctuations and the same for teams. In 2038 and even to some extent last year my teams seemed to be effected by a more global team "bad" year. It seems kind of clear to me and I think it is appropriate. It just can be frustrating when you think you are on the cusp and your roll up a bad season. Evaluations can be tough. I quit on 2B Roberto Quinones a year or 2 early because of his bad 2038 season. He bounced back pretty well for you as an old guy, didn't he Mike?
#69980	12/06/2019 9:16:18 am	Jun 25th, 2043	Ignore
lostraven Joined: 07/02/2016 Posts: 1269 Corvallis Ravens II.1	Just a quick update. Ended up cutting Martinez. He was at 10 HR in 37 inning, went up to 12 HR in 45, with an ERA of 7.00. With the exception of one other pitcher, all my other pitchers had strong FIPS. Everything just points to him being flawed. Maybe someone down in V or VI will get some quality innings out of him. That said, this season has been really, really difficult. Humbling? Not sure.

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