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michaeltodd2
Joined: 02/20/2018
Posts: 325

Paradise Valley Cubs
III.3

Broken Bat Baseball
I'm curious as to how much info i can extrapolate from a players starting attributes/skills, from right out of the draft? In particular, player ID# 193820. He is going to be a great hitter, but his starting Plate Disc is a 1. Now i've read the post about projecting a players skills, but they're never is any comments about PD. I'm wondering is if a player such as this guy, with a starting PD of 1, should i presume since he starts off with a low score like 1, that by the time i finish his training his PD will probably still be pretty low? As compared to if he started off with a PD of 5 or 6, then maybe his PD would be significantly higher by the end of his training? Basically, can i presume if he starts off with a really low PD (1), does that mean his finishing PD will be pretty low? Or am i extrapolating too much? I hope this makes sense? Thank you

Updated Friday, January 18 2019 @ 10:00:07 am PST
Seca
Joined: 05/05/2014
Posts: 5194

Waterloo Dinosaurs
Legends

Broken Bat Baseball
Could be a nice little pick for the 4th round. :)

When predicting, the best you can do is estimate the sum of BC + PD. For Gibson that looks to be around 25.

I usually assume they will add at the same rate. For Gibson, he has ~20 points to get in those two skills. So I'd ballpark 14 BC 11 PD.

As he matures, you can refine the prediction. His development graph will show how quickly he's adding each skill. If the "bumps" are narrower for one, that skill will likely exceed the initial prediction. Sometimes a line flattens out altogether.

There are other things you can look at. GB:FB may give some hints. A high fly ball rate may mean more PD than BC. But this is a weaker signal with lots of noise (and there may not be anyone but me that believes in this).

I know there was advice in another thread to go for a great hit high PD combo. There are lots of successful players with great hit and high BC. I wouldn't worry too much about that (PD or BC). More important things to watch (imo) are minor league OPS (especially in a "senior" season at a level - like it to be 750-800) and ability to hit with runners in scoring position (hopefully this is 20-30 points higher than his overall average).
michaeltodd2
Joined: 02/20/2018
Posts: 325

Paradise Valley Cubs
III.3

Broken Bat Baseball
Excellent, thank you.


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