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lostraven
Joined: 07/02/2016
Posts: 1269

Corvallis Ravens
III.1

Broken Bat Baseball
Veteran team owners,

Any thoughts on determining if a young pup's results in a couple of seasons of Big League time are representative of their future?

A few things I'm comfortable stating:

* Young players are often still gaining SI the first year or two (or more) they play in the bigs, so there is some improvement to be expected.

* Some players don't seem to match up with their paper stats, consistently underperforming.

That said, here are two exhibits:

* Itsuki Ōno, 2.5 seasons in the Bigs, age 26, Control has been good (14 to 16; the jump to 16 just happened last Friday) from the start

* Doug Sullivan, 2.0 seasons in the Bigs, age 24, Control has improved from 12 to 14 from the start

Ōno only had one season in AAA, but he was striking out batters WAY more often than walking them. Sullivan had three season in the minors, and with the exception of 2034 AAA, he also was striking out a fair number more of batters than walking them.

Both pitchers have consistently walked more batters than striking them out in the Bigs, so far.

Control says they should be better than this. They're not necessarily lacking in Movement either. They were't walking more than striking out in the minors. Who is the real player?

When the difference in these sorts of stats are so significant (between the minors and the Bigs), how do you decide if this is the young player's true level or if they will improve? I'm trying to practice excruciating patience, but when in a pennant chase, I'm prone to a little overanalysis of my team faults, which I'm largely pinning on my relief squad right now.


Updated Tuesday, July 10 2018 @ 11:07:53 am PDT
Rock777
Joined: 09/21/2014
Posts: 9571

Haverhill Halflings
III.1

Broken Bat Baseball
K/BB ratio can be a tricky beast. You talk about control, but these guys aren't really walking an excessive amount of players. Its more that they aren't striking people out, which is not effected so much by control. In 2034 that one pitcher didn't have a great K/BB ratio because he had just promoted to AAA. After he grew more, he started dominating in AAA. Same is true when you hit the majors. If they grow more, they will do better against the competition. So how did they do at the end of the year, how much more will they grow? I don't think you will know for sure until after year 3, but both of these guys look like decent pitchers. They aren't going to have high strike out numbers because the don't have a lot of velocity. Jim Lang has been a very successful pitcher for me for a number of years. He walks more guys than he Ks.


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