Help

Forum >> Help >> Stealing AI  

Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date	Function
#55952	11/16/2017 12:27:06 pm	Jun 20th, 2034	Ignore
Frankebasta Joined: 09/15/2013 Posts: 884 Kodiak Mules III.3	It's the umpteenth time we talk about how wrong it is to steal third... two outs, no outs, yadda yadda... IMO, we sjould rather talk about HOW'S THAT man on second in not IN SCORING POSITION in BrokenBat??? Don't know if it's just me, but Laredo almost never scores from second on a single. Maybe 20% of times, regardless of base runner's speed. Much more common, the run will score on a double with man on 1st. But as long as the man on 2nd won't score on a single, stealing third is a smart choice
#55954	11/16/2017 12:49:18 pm	Jun 20th, 2034	Ignore
MukilteoMike Joined: 08/09/2014 Posts: 3294 Inactive	People periodically talk about the stealing AI because it's pretty bad. If it stays that way, people will continue to complain. Yes, runners should score from second on singles far more often than they do. That is, after all, why it's called "scoring position." That doesn't invalidate the issues with stealing. That's what the OP wanted to talk about; there's nothing unreasonable about that. There are dozens of flaws in the game as there are with most online games. Regarding scoring from second on singles, it happens at a reasonable rate with two outs, but with none or one out it's far, far, far too infrequent.
#55958	11/16/2017 2:38:34 pm	Jun 22nd, 2034	Ignore
newtman Joined: 11/02/2013 Posts: 3343 Inactive	@wickersty, I haven't noticed a correlation there, but I haven't kept detailed track of it. I do know that there is variation between years due to several factors which make it extremely difficult to get large sample sizes that hold all else equal. For example I didn't change Di Carlo's settings in the off-season, but he is stealing far less, and getting caught far more this season than last season. @Frank, agree 100% there. Stealing third has basically become the equivalent of scoring from 2nd on a single, since that doesn't happen with less than two outs. Updated Thursday, November 16 2017 @ 2:40:29 pm PST
#55963	11/16/2017 5:00:31 pm	Jun 24th, 2034	Ignore
shikago Joined: 11/29/2011 Posts: 229 Inactive	Had a quick question related to stealing if I may (rather than starting another thread) My catcher has 20 arm, but has only thrown out 22% of runners this season. Allowing almost as many steals as all of last season. Is this just a fluke? (was at 56% CS last season + won a gold glove). What causes things to change so drastically?
#55966	11/16/2017 10:15:38 pm	Jun 25th, 2034	Ignore
MukilteoMike Joined: 08/09/2014 Posts: 3294 Inactive	(Shikago, it's probably mostly randomness. I have a 19 arm catcher who has seasons of CS% ranging from 28 to 42 percent. This season he's at a ridiculous 11%. There's also the fact that your division always moves 3 teams out and in. This year's bunch could be better base stealers.)
#56020	11/18/2017 9:48:35 am	Jun 27th, 2034	Ignore
Gambler75 Joined: 02/23/2017 Posts: 80 Brockton Bombers V.15	My team's greatest asset is probably speed as well, but I've gone the other direction - dropping all my base runners to + instead of ++. I'm only 4th in the league in total steals, however: 116/52 (69%) 77/32 (71%) 73/32 (69%) 65/17 (79%) I still go by the general rule of around a 75% rate is the break even point, if you want to chop it down in far more detail there's a fangraph atricle from 2011 that diced it up more than I will: Fangraph Stolen Base Breakpoints TL;DR version - I've seen almost zero attempts on 3B by dropping to a + instead of ++, and my steal percentage has jumped to where it's in my acceptable range. If we had a way to control stealing third attempts, or the AI was tuned to at least not make them with 2 outs remaining (where a nearly 90% success rate is necessary to break even), I could certainly be getting more out of my speedy guys. But, it may very well be those criminally dumb attempts like stealing 3rd with 2 outs are a balancing element in Steve's eyes, considering the number of players that are putting up Henderson-esque lines on ++? Updated Saturday, November 18 2017 @ 9:53:14 am PST
#56026	11/18/2017 3:03:33 pm	Jun 29th, 2034	Ignore
lostraven Joined: 07/02/2016 Posts: 1269 Corvallis Ravens II.1	I play Pennant Chase (PC) suuuuuper casually, really only playing in low-maintenance auto leagues. Regardless, if I were to want for something more here at Broken Bat, it would be more strat options. Here's a screenie of PC's options: See the stealing options there. That aside, question for @Gambler75: Are you only tuning down from ++ to + those players who on average are at less than 75 percent success rate while leaving players at 75 and above at ++?
#56061	11/20/2017 11:45:05 am	Jul 7th, 2034	Ignore
Gambler75 Joined: 02/23/2017 Posts: 80 Brockton Bombers V.15	I turned all of them down to + at highest. I suppose it might have made more sense to do it on a case by case basis, but I had a rash of 3B steal attempts w/2 outs late last season while the race for promoting was fairly tight, and it was costing me games. I made the decision to do all of them then. So no player has been on ++ this season from the start. I have been tempted to bump up the pair that are at a 92% success rate, but wanted to keep comparisons simple. *edit* - Yeah most of those management options are in Broken Bat, but on a player by player basis - minus the control over 2B/3B steal attempts. If it were easy for Steve to put in a global 3B steal management setting for the team, simple like a ++/+/blank/-/-- to override the AI's underlying weights a bit, that would be plenty enough for me to let my guys loose a bit more again. I really don't have a problem with it, other than the 3B/2O situations. Updated Monday, November 20 2017 @ 11:54:02 am PST
#56084	11/20/2017 9:19:42 pm	Jul 9th, 2034	Ignore
Seca Joined: 05/05/2014 Posts: 5199 Waterloo Dinosaurs Legends	I haven't had a player on ++ steal ... ever. My guys still try to steal 3B. ++ - steal 3B when you think you can + - just focus on 2B Gives those who want an aggressive setting an aggressive setting. Gives the rest of us something realistic.
#56915	12/21/2017 11:24:02 am	Nov 1st, 2034	Ignore
motko Joined: 09/06/2014 Posts: 358 Nauvoo The Great Horned Owl IV.6	Total blackout here. Is it tougher for the catcher against stealing attempt when there is LHB or RHB around the plate? Sorry against the bad eanglish i have not slept for long time.

| |

Reply