Broken Bat - Help: Falling Off a Cliff

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Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date	Function

#43858	01/12/2017 12:58:14 pm
el_jefe_loco Joined: 02/25/2015 Posts: 73 Inactive	Two old vets on my pitching staff have taken a major nose dive this season. I am trying to assess if I'm dealing with noise from a small sample size, or if these guys are just over the hill. Based on SI / ratings, they should both still be useful... but I'm skeptical they can turn things around. Thoughts? Lucky Lara Money Maxwell

#43859	01/12/2017 1:16:51 pm
newtman Joined: 11/02/2013 Posts: 3343 Inactive	Not a fan of Lara's build, so I think he is done. He doesn't have a pitch that would get outs consistently in my opinion (14 velocity or 15 movement, but nothing elite). If I understand the system properly, a good way to think about it is that any given pitch a pitch will take into account a pitching skill (velocity, CoS, or movement) plus control and stamina versus a batter's hitting, BC, and PD in order to get an outcome. I think of it like a dice roll, the higher the number skill, the higher the possible dice roll (though you obviously could still roll a "1" or in other words be unlucky). As for Maxwell, he should still have two serviceable skills, but his control skill is shaky. Both pitchers have higher ERAs than FIPs which make me wonder if your defense isn't hurting you big time. If all your pitchers are suffering from higher ERAs than FIPs then you may be looking in the wrong place, as it may actually be your defense which is killing you.

#43889	01/13/2017 8:44:26 am
el_jefe_loco Joined: 02/25/2015 Posts: 73 Inactive	Thanks Newtman for the response. I've never thought of the game engine quite like that - gives me something to think about. I agree that Lara's build isn't perfect - he has been inconsistent in his career. This is by far his worst statistical season though, and he did not lose any SI vs last year... Money Maxwell may have just suffered too much SI decline (esp in control) to still be useful. What a drop off in performance... It could be defense that is leading to a big FIP vs ERA gap - and I am breaking in a new young SS and 1B this year with low current fielding - but overall for my team the gap is less severe. And I'm middle-of-the-pack statistically in my league defensively...

#43899	01/13/2017 12:27:53 pm
newtman Joined: 11/02/2013 Posts: 3343 Inactive	I can't guarantee you I'm correct, but it has been the understanding I've let guide my personnel decision making the past several seasons. Sounds like you understand their positions pretty well. Another factor to keep in mind is that even if you don't promote or relegate half the teams in the league do one or the other each season, so you do have very different competition each season. That means different strengths and weaknesses even if the quality remained roughly constant.

#43900	01/13/2017 12:56:29 pm
Seca Joined: 05/05/2014 Posts: 5197 Waterloo Dinosaurs Legends	I feel like most pitchers reach an aging update somewhere after which they are mush and can't get anyone out. Always nervous about older pitchers (even if their SI doesn't visibly change). That said, I like Lara. While I respect Newtman's viewpoint I don't share it. I've had guys with builds like Lara who have done fine. He has certainly had a patch of bad form. But I think the new SS may be hurting him a fair bit. Some pitchers are more reliant on DPs then others. Lara looks like he might be one of those guys (but you would know better). Your DPs are way down this season. The new SS is turning DPs at less than half the rate of the old one, and the old one was just average in that department. This will get better as the new SS's fielding fills out.