Post ID | Date & Time | Game Date | Function |
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#32188 | 03/22/2016 2:48:08 pm | ||
newtman Joined: 11/02/2013 Posts: 3343 Inactive | @Spoon, except that your example is just one example, I've given you counter examples that showed that run differential does not inherently favor the offense in the past. I'll do it again here... 320-160 versus 300-139. Since you were lazy and took the 2-1 example as your example, I had to pick an even more unrealistic example as I doubt any team has ever averaged allowing LESS than 1 run per game, but the example still holds. | ||
#32192 | 03/22/2016 3:34:12 pm | ||
Spoonerific Joined: 01/17/2013 Posts: 339 Inactive | @Spoon, except that your example is just one example, I've given you counter examples that showed that run differential does not inherently favor the offense in the past. I'll do it again here... 320-160 versus 300-139. Since you were lazy and took the 2-1 example as your example, I had to pick an even more unrealistic example as I doubt any team has ever averaged allowing LESS than 1 run per game, but the example still holds. The amount of difference between your example is incomparable. The first would have a EXWL of .800 and the latter .823 hardly statistically significant. The reason I used a large difference was to show the favoritism of offense versus defense. But even so, your example proves that allowing fewer runs should be better than getting more and to paraphrase what you just stated, it's hard to give up just 1 run a game. But even if you do it is still considered less impressive [by the system in which we play] to simply scoring more runs. |
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#32198 | 03/22/2016 5:13:29 pm | ||
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9568 Haverhill Halflings III.1 | I think you overvalue defense. Games are about points. Who ever has the most wins. Therefor beating your opponent by more points means you are the better (more skilled) team. I view offense and defense as equal in this. Defense is how many you allowed. Offense is how many you got. The bigger delta shows the greater team. EXWL has nothing to do with skill, its merely a predictor of wins. And certainly not an infallible one either. I would also argue that giving up just one run is as impressive on defense as it is unimpressive as a measure of the other teams offense. It is difficult to get only 1 run. Did it happen because your team played well defensively, or because the other team played poorly offensively. They are two heads of the same coin. Updated Tuesday, March 22 2016 @ 5:16:10 pm PDT |
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#32199 | 03/22/2016 5:17:32 pm | ||
Spoonerific Joined: 01/17/2013 Posts: 339 Inactive | Have you even been reading the whole thread? I'm saying how much of poor player my 16 POT player [Best defensive player on my team] is WORST than a 12 POT pure bat. I "overvalue" defense? |
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#32200 | 03/22/2016 5:28:35 pm | ||
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9568 Haverhill Halflings III.1 | Yes, I agreed with your assessment that POT 12s are often better then POT 14s (or 16s in your example). You called out that you felt that this game over values offense and that is why you value the player greater in the game. I am saying you over value defense because you feel that a good defensive performance is more impressive that a good offensive performance. | ||
#32201 | 03/22/2016 5:32:49 pm | ||
newtman Joined: 11/02/2013 Posts: 3343 Inactive | No it doesn't Spoon, here let me spell it out for you with an example along your lines. 390-160 500-480 RD favors the better defensive team, and it is statistically significant. My point is not that it favors defense in all instances, my point is you have blinders on to the fact that it is just as likely to work one way as the other. |
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#32218 | 03/23/2016 3:10:20 am | ||
Favuz Joined: 02/26/2014 Posts: 630 Oxnard Sunsets IV.3 | It always depend on what you need in your player. If we are talking about a DH or a Corner OF, i agree that some 12's are better than 14's and even 15's. If we are talking about a middle infielder, defence(even in this game) is important, so 90% of the times a 14 will be better than a 12. Example: first draft of the season, 2 players (same age, both S/R): A: Great hitter, prolific slugger, not very fast, poor defence B: Very good hitter, decent slugger, very quick, amazing defence. 80% of times player B will be an higher pot than A, but if you are searching a 1B, corner OF or even a Catcher i'd choose player B. |
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#32225 | 03/23/2016 10:38:12 am | ||
Spoonerific Joined: 01/17/2013 Posts: 339 Inactive | Two issues with your example. 1st Corner OFs need to be about as good as your CF (they all end up getting about the same amount of FAs... I've already stated this but no one else seems to notice facts and numbers). 2nd, you mentioned 'poor defense' but scouting reports only mention fielding and fielding is not a necessity for OFs (or Cs). I'd take player A if his Range and/or Arm is good enough. By the numbers it seems 17 (for Hitting and Power) is the point you want to get to for being above average in higher divisions from my experience. Very good might not get you to that point. |
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#32226 | 03/23/2016 11:18:03 am | ||
Favuz Joined: 02/26/2014 Posts: 630 Oxnard Sunsets IV.3 | i made a mistake in my previous post, i'd choose player A if i'm not searching a 2B,3B or SS. Point is, everyone would like to have great hitters and prolific sluggers in every position of the lineup, but it can be very difficult to achieve. So a player like micheals is anyway a great player, because he steals and provide optimal defence in CF (the thing that CF should be more important in the balance of this game is another point, and i might agree with you). The only "problem" with Michael is that he is good in everything but it's not great in anything with the bat. As you said , good OF defenders are a dime a dozen, but also great hitter with no defence (my DH is an 11 potential, this guy i drafted last year also) |
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#32249 | 03/24/2016 7:29:33 am | ||
Seca Joined: 05/05/2014 Posts: 5193 Waterloo Dinosaurs Legends | @Seca, I completely agree with you from a philosophical approach. Speed, base running and defense are important and it was how I wanted to build my team. But the way the sim is run makes offense king. I think this is an easy observation to make, and also a misconception. Offense is in your face. Defense is subtle. The game report does not say things like: "Bob is held to a single by Doug's strong throw from RF." "Bob has a sure hit stolen by Doug's unbelievable range at short." *** "A barehanded laser from Doug on 3B nips Bob by half a step!" Yet all that stuff is happening. The better your players on defense, the more frequently it occurs. But without in-your-face observations, it is very easy to dismiss the value of defensive skills. Just look at the tie-breaker system, it is not based on runs allowed, it is based on runs differential which always favors better offenses. I feel this is a strawman. The tie-breaker system decides who promotes or relegates. It doesn't decide who wins and loses games. *** - yes I know aggregate range is a thing. It does not change the fact that high range reduces the number of hits, nor that the game report does not provide feedback when this occurs. Edit: so many typos Updated Thursday, March 24 2016 @ 3:38:21 pm PDT |