Broken Bat - Help: Base Stealing Assistance

Forum >> Help >> Base Stealing Assistance

Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date	Function

#28390	12/26/2015 9:54:00 pm
Seca Joined: 05/05/2014 Posts: 5199 Waterloo Dinosaurs Legends	Can't stand getting thrown out stealing. Give my guys fairly conservative settings (-) and for the most part it works out well. They pick their spots and maintain a pretty high success rate. Unless we play a LHT or untrained catcher. Then my guys get really aggressive even on their low setting. They get thrown out in bunches. Drives me crazy. It seems really counter intuitive to me, but when I face a bad / untrained / wrong armed catcher, should I actually be lowering my settings further? -- for the win?

#28421	12/28/2015 10:51:28 am
Crazy Li Joined: 01/25/2015 Posts: 879 Inactive	No, your guys should be succeeding, honestly. That's the very reason they get more aggressive. It should be pretty easy. No idea why their success rate would drop.

#28441	12/29/2015 7:07:15 am
Seca Joined: 05/05/2014 Posts: 5199 Waterloo Dinosaurs Legends	I'm not sure it works that way. Well, I'm not sure how it works. . With outfield assists, I'm usually at the bottom of my league. That with a 19 arm RF and a 17 arm CF. I've long felt they don't get many assists b/c base runners know not to test them. Base stealing probably functions in a similar way. A few seasons back Bennington had a low arm LH catcher who just murdered us. I started using X against him - it was that bad. I think part of my problem is that (I believe) a decent part of base stealing defence is from the pitcher - which is invisible and changes from game to game in the series. My guys get suckered into going by the baddie behind the plate, and get slain by a monster pick-off move. I don't face very many bad catchers in my league. I will try -- next time. But that could be a while.

#28445	12/29/2015 9:06:01 am
Crazy Li Joined: 01/25/2015 Posts: 879 Inactive	Well what I meant is that they're running more in spite of the setting because the catcher seems bad. Even a conservative runner will run on a catcher who shouldn't be able to throw him out... but like you said, they could still be picked off when taking too generous of a lead. Pitchers don't have a displayed "pick off" or "hold runner" attribute, so we have no idea how they influence things. And yes, you get a misleading effect from high arm OFs... you don't get outfield assists... but you also don't get runners advancing for extra bases as much... so they still work, just not in an easily measurable capacity. I assume the highest OF assist numbers come from "above average" arms since runners aren't afraid of them, but still can get gunned down at times.

#28510	12/31/2015 6:47:15 pm
Seca Joined: 05/05/2014 Posts: 5199 Waterloo Dinosaurs Legends	Actually came up against another poor defensive catcher. 12 arm, 8 field. 16% throwing. Went with the -- for kicks. Only attempted 2 stolen bases in the five games. One was Logan - 17 speed, decent base-stealing gene. The other was Larsen. Only 13 speed, but top end base-stealing gene. Both were gunned down. So -- isn't the answer. Ritual sacrifice of goats is next on the list.

#28511	12/31/2015 6:56:41 pm
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9596 Haverhill Halflings III.1	LOL. I'm sorry, I find your base stealing woes to be humorous You could always give everyone you don't want stealing the X setting. It kind of sounds like they ran appropriately. I generally try to tune each player until they start getting the right success rate. I don't do a lot of modification based on the catcher because I assume the AI is taking care of that. Really, you have a better than 2/3 success rate at stealing, which is a pretty reasonable success rate, so I think the AI is running when it thinks its appropriate. Looking at your roster the only guys I would tune down are Butler and Anderson, but if you prefer higher rates you can of course tune everyone down more. But really you hate getting thrown out more than the average I believe, so it makes sense that your optimal settings are going to be pretty far down in the - range. Also: That with a 19 arm RF and a 17 arm CF. I've long felt they don't get many assists That is why I don't prioritize Arm as high as other folks do for OFs. Updated Thursday, December 31 2015 @ 7:02:17 pm PST

#28515	12/31/2015 9:56:27 pm
admin Joined: 01/27/2010 Posts: 4985 Administrator	Not sure I understand...you're team has 39 SB's versus 18 CS's. That's a 68% success rate. Steve

#28519	01/01/2016 7:26:57 am
Seca Joined: 05/05/2014 Posts: 5199 Waterloo Dinosaurs Legends	68% sounds ok. But it's the worst in my division by a fair bit. I've also attempted about 1/3 as many as anyone else (in part, I believe, due to my conservative settings). I often use the X against better backstops. The attempts I make are weighted towards poorer defenders. Then again, I just don't have a good team for stealing bases. Too many smaller bar players that are short on speed. Maybe that makes it harder to see the separation of the management settings. Can definitely see the ++ - guys take second and then head for third. The other levels are harder to distinguish with my crew..

#28554	01/01/2016 9:58:51 pm
Crazy Li Joined: 01/25/2015 Posts: 879 Inactive	I have a very aggressive base-running/stealing philosophy. So far my team has 93 steals and 29 CS. That's like an 83% success rate. Either you have too many guys who aren't good at stealing or your conservativeness is actually what's doing you in. By limiting your attempts, you're creating less chances for your team to be successful. You may fail your first 5 attempts, but if you make 15 more, maybe you succeed in 10 of them. 10/20 is better than 0/5, right? You said you only had 2 attempts in 5 games against a bad catcher. That small of a sample can easily get you RGN-screwed. If you instead made 2 attempts per game, you would have certainly had a higher percentage (considering your actual was 0% :p)

#28562	01/02/2016 7:26:50 am
Seca Joined: 05/05/2014 Posts: 5199 Waterloo Dinosaurs Legends	That's what I'm trying to figure out (if my strategy is bogus). Last season with the same personnel and strategy we were over 80%. My guess is the potential base-stealer makes an success estimate at the start of each at bat. Something like: % succeed = Def + Off + Rng Where Def is some amalgamation of catcher arm, pitcher hold runners, etc.. Off is base runner speed and ability to get a lead. Rng is a random factor. Somewhere in there are "envirmental" factors (what base stealing, how long been on base, weather, etc..). Once the baserunner makes the estimate he checks his order to see if he should go. Maybe: ++ > 50% + > 60% " " > 70% - > 80% -- > 90% for example. If his predicted success rate exceeds his order limit, he goes. But I don't think he actually tests against his estimate. If so, teams like mine that run conservative orders should see really consistent results. Its also not consistent with my observation of base-running orders which I assume function the same way. With base-running, a slow runner with a -- order has a much different chance to succeed than a fast runner with a --'order. So something in the initial etimate is unknown. This gives the runner a chance to make mistakes or get lucky. Makes results less stale Clearly runners know something about the defense. My base-stealers recognize a good battery and make fewer attempts. Intuitively, a runner should have a good idea of his speed and lead. That leaves rng. My best guess is that the random element is rerolled between the estimate and the test. Ie., Runner with - order: % succeed = def + off + rng % succeed = 25 + 30 + 30 85% estimate > 80% order limit, runner goes. New rng = 10 Runner tests at 65% A model like this explains why slow base-runners do poorly even with cautious orders. Because their personal contribution is small, rng is a big part of the reason they go. Rerolling a smaller rng hangs them out to dry. Back to base-stealing. If you are up against a poor battery, the Def contribution is poorer (which makes it a larger number in my made up equation). This is going to result in more attempts. Not just from the good base-stealers, but also guys who normally can't get to their threshold. These guys are like our slow base-runners. They are relying on a good Rng value to succeed. A good base-stealer has big Def and Off in these situations. He should have a very good success rate in these scenarios. So for a team like mine trying to maintain a high success rate, setting good base-stealers more aggressive against a poor battery is probably wise. They will make more attempts, and since Good rng isn't required for a decent success rate, they should do well. But borderline base-stealers should maintain their conservative order. They are going to get baited into going by the poor battery, and if Rng is an important part of their motivation, their success rate is questionable. As for my team, I don't really have any great base-stealers. Butler is promising, but he's no Stanley Matthews. Against poor batteries probably my best approach is to turn Butler and Acosta up, but keep guys like Anderson and Baez quite low.