Broken Bat - Help: What to do with this guy?

Forum >> Help >> What to do with this guy?

Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date	Function

#19102	05/18/2015 7:24:28 am
Slug5373 Joined: 12/23/2014 Posts: 376 Inactive	Alright, I've had this guy for a little over two months. He didn't pop a single point in A, which was his suggested level. I bumped him up to AA as a last ditch effort to save his development. Sure enough, he pops a point. Is it possible that his suggested level is wrong and AA is where he should be? And, should I even continue to use up a roster spot on this large risk/reward player?

#19103	05/18/2015 8:06:33 am
Haselrig Joined: 04/13/2014 Posts: 2790 Novi Doubledays III.4	He looks like he can be a decent 3B, but since he's not a draft pick of yours and he's a 13 POT who's shown signs of trouble, I'd look elsewhere. Since we're at the deadline, you might roll with him to the offseason, but I'd have an eye open for an upgrade. Aside from his arm, he just doesn't stand out in any way. Should be able to find a younger, better prospect who will promote to the majors at about the same time Rivera would have.

#19115	05/18/2015 12:20:30 pm
Seca Joined: 05/05/2014 Posts: 5199 Waterloo Dinosaurs Legends	Is it possible that his suggested level is wrong and AA is where he should be? Doubt that. Steve has made several posts stating optimal training is at the recommended level. Just coincidence.

#19290	05/22/2015 8:18:50 am
Slug5373 Joined: 12/23/2014 Posts: 376 Inactive	@Seca Rivera just popped another point this week. All season in A ball he popped one point, in two weeks in AA, he's popped 2. Idk, i might leave him there...

#19313	05/22/2015 12:21:56 pm
Seca Joined: 05/05/2014 Posts: 5199 Waterloo Dinosaurs Legends	I used to keep a lot of training data. There is random involved, but I would generally expect 1 pop per skill per season at low minor levels. With 10 training updates, that's ~ 0.1 of a level per week. Steve has said training at the recommended level is optimal. So there is some penalty associated with being at the wrong level. Maybe low minors they only get ~ 0.05 of a level per week at the wrong level. (Made that number up). So your guy comes into the season with 5.15 BC and 5.10 PD. After 8 weeks @ 0.1 per week he is at 5.95 BC and 5.90 PD. You bump him to AA. The next week he adds 0.05 to each skill instead of 0.1. But he pops BC. The following week he again adds 0.05 instead of 0.1. He pops PD. That would be my take on it. I appreciate your willingness to experiment. I personally wouldn't experiment with this tho, since we've been told several times optimal training is at the recommended level. I don't see any grey here.

#19332	05/23/2015 8:05:39 am
Seca Joined: 05/05/2014 Posts: 5199 Waterloo Dinosaurs Legends	Another little thought. At higher levels in the minor leagues, players gain skill faster. My rough estimate @ AAA was ~1.5 per season. So if you had one of those 23 year old rookie ball guys, you might try throwing him straight into AAA hoping that the greater rate of skill gain overcomes being at the wrong level. I still don't think it would work. If the penalty for being at the wrong level is ~50%, then being in AAA when you shouldn't would give ~0.75 of a level per season. That's still less than you would get properly placed in the low minors, and would be consistent with the "optimal training at the proper level" axiom.

#19347	05/23/2015 4:59:27 pm
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9596 Haverhill Halflings III.1	I think pops are a little less random then folks think. I've noticed with my young pitchers (who are gaining like 20 points a season), they never pop in the same thing two weeks in a row. So I believe its actually more like a random gain in training each week, and if you get over 100 training points (or something like that), then the player pops. If the player being referenced in this thread went a whole season without popping, then he must have been very close to popping in all his abilities. Now you move him up, he gets just a tiny bit of training, but its enough to put him over the line and he pops. Just noticed some of this is duplicative of what Seca was saying. Updated Saturday, May 23 2015 @ 5:00:48 pm PDT

#19349	05/23/2015 5:36:34 pm
Seca Joined: 05/05/2014 Posts: 5199 Waterloo Dinosaurs Legends	Just noticed some of this is a duplicate of what Seca is saying Some axiom about great minds.

#19353	05/23/2015 9:15:44 pm
Slug5373 Joined: 12/23/2014 Posts: 376 Inactive	Alright, I'll move him down and see what happens.