Help

Forum >> Help >> Should a catcher`s stolen base percentage be taken seriously?   Bookmark This Forum Thread

Post ID Date & Time Game Date Function
loul
Joined: 12/17/2013
Posts: 32

Inactive

Broken Bat Baseball
My catcher threw out 58 % of the runners last season with a 18 arm, this season, he's just throwing out 30 %, with about the same number of attempts per game ... He's 22 this year, so his skills are not decreasing so I think it might be due to lower league level, where players are not as experimented but younger and faster ?

I don't know, it's just an idea ... It might help you

Updated Friday, February 13 2015 @ 9:57:22 am PST
Rock777
Joined: 09/21/2014
Posts: 9569

Haverhill Halflings
III.1

Broken Bat Baseball
I had the exact same thing happen to my catcher when the team went to a lower level. I think you are right, the lower the level, the more managers seem to value speed, so its harder for catchers. At higher levels managers probably place more value in offensive capability, so you probably have less speedsters.

Cruz Gonzalez


Year --- LL --- SI --- CS% --- Attempts
2017 --- 3 ---- 85 --- 41.1 ---- 112
2018 --- 3 ---- 93 --- 52.6 ---- 19
2019 --- 4 ---- 97 --- 29.8 ---- 57
2020 --- 5 --- 103 -- 21.4 ---- 98
2021 --- 5 --- 104 -- 21.9 ---- 32

From my super small data sample it looks like I'm losing about 10% on CS% per league level.

Updated Friday, February 13 2015 @ 10:29:32 am PST
admin
Joined: 01/27/2010
Posts: 4980

Administrator
Broken Bat Baseball
League level can make a difference. Also, if you look at the different leagues, often times there are a handful of players that account for many/most of the stolen bases. So depending on their skills & settings, those might have a significant effect on your percentage.


Steve
jetsrock48
Joined: 11/25/2013
Posts: 150

Davenport Cobras
IV.3

Broken Bat Baseball
@steve. In your first post you said a stronger arm catcher should have a higer CS%. This is what I am trying to determine. Wouldn`t a stronger armed catcher have the same CS% as a weaker armed one? I would think over the long run, the kinds of people who choose to run on a strong arm guy would have the same steal % as guys who choose to run on a weaker armed guy.

For example, let's say a 19 arm catcher has a 30% CS rate, and a 15 arm catcher has a 35% rate. Wouldn't the 19 arm guy have the better stats even though his number is lower? There is obviously a hidden value that we don`t see of who chooses to run/doesn't choose. So can I assume that the 19 arm catcher is superior defensively even though his stats may say otherwise?
newtman
Joined: 11/02/2013
Posts: 3343

Inactive

Broken Bat Baseball
You also have to keep in mind sample size. We've only played 60 games so far this season, say there is one steal attempt made against him per game, then a few straight games of catching the guy would change that percentage a lot. Still the settings of players matter, if someone sets their guys to "+" steals then more risks will be taken and they will be caught more (theoretically over a season) while increasing the number of successful attempts as well. Too many unlike variables to make small n comparisons.
admin
Joined: 01/27/2010
Posts: 4980

Administrator
Broken Bat Baseball
Sample size and non-random samples will certainly obscure the actual percentages.

The reason that a strong armed catcher should have a slightly higher CS%, is the estimates the base stealers make are imperfect, so they will tend to error more towards assuming an average arm. This means they may mistakenly run when there percentage of success is actually lower than they think.


Steve
jetsrock48
Joined: 11/25/2013
Posts: 150

Davenport Cobras
IV.3

Broken Bat Baseball
Thank you for clarifying Steve.

I was under the impression that base runners would have an approximate estimation of how strong a catcher's arm is like how in real baseball, a runner usually has an idea if the catcher can throw well or not.

And @newtman this is not a question specifically related to this season. It was more of a general question that would be comparing stats over the long haul.
MukilteoMike
Joined: 08/09/2014
Posts: 3294

Inactive

Broken Bat Baseball
The players and league don't understand how good or bad catchers are?! Uh, okay. Bizarre and completely unrealistic. But I guess that's no different than them being oblivious to which outfielders have rockets-launchers for arms.

I wish we could just have general stolen base and base running settings from ultra conservative to ultra aggressive. The manager and coaches should have a grasp on the defensive abilities of the competition and consider that, along with individual speed and situation, to make better decisions than they currently do.
admin
Joined: 01/27/2010
Posts: 4980

Administrator
Broken Bat Baseball
I think you're misinterpreting what I said.

The players and league DO understand how good or bad catchers are...just not perfectly. In real baseball, when a player tries to steal, he has a decent idea what his chances are, but probably not precise to a percentage point.


Steve
Rock777
Joined: 09/21/2014
Posts: 9569

Haverhill Halflings
III.1

Broken Bat Baseball
Yep. And a lot of runners judge badly; assuming they can beat the catcher with their awesome speed. I think Steve has it modeled perfectly right now.

It's just good to be aware of the fact that you are likely to face more speedsters in the lower levels.

Updated Sunday, February 15 2015 @ 7:20:41 pm PST


Previous Page | Show All |