Broken Bat - Help: Too few SB

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Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date	Function

#10474	10/02/2014 9:13:41 am
Seca Joined: 05/05/2014 Posts: 5199 Waterloo Dinosaurs Legends	A base runner who doesn't go as often has the element of surprise. (See Jose Bautista). If a guy goes every time he reaches first, the pitcher is going to throw over 17 times, slide-step his throws home, pitch-out, have the catcher throw behind him, etc., etc.. It seems entirely reasonable to me that all these defensive measures would reduce that runner's success rate. Here's my stolen base leader this season: http://brokenbat.org/player/53644 He normally plays with the blank order. (I'll sometimes go + when the opposing catcher is really weak, and I'll go - when the opposing catcher is really good / bunch of lefties starting.) Despite the blank order and old-guy speed, he goes all the time and has a very good success rate. Think that's b/c he's a natural base stealer. He can read pitchers, get a good lead and a good jump: skills not related to speed and definitely not related to the manager's disposition. I like how this works. Guess my only complaint is that its black box. There is nothing in the scouting to hint at these skills; can only be discovered through observation. But it doesn't take too many games to see if a guy has it or not.

#10477	10/02/2014 11:40:22 am
admin Joined: 01/27/2010 Posts: 4985 Administrator	The reason his percentage drops, is because he's being less selective and when he runs. It's not a boolean calculation -- good lead go, bad lead stay. The logic is fuzzier...Do you have a good chance or a great change to steal the base. If you have the management setting lower, then maybe he only goes if he think he's got a great chance. If it's higher, then he goes anything he gets a good or great chance. Steve

#10492	10/03/2014 12:42:40 am
MukilteoMike Joined: 08/09/2014 Posts: 3294 Inactive	Seca, I find it interesting that you say a guy who goes all the time will naturally be slowed down by defensive tactics, yet your 15 speed guy attempts to steal more than half the time he's on first and is ridiculously successful. And I'm understanding you correctly in that you have him in a neutral base stealing state most of the time? How the heck is he going so often? Also, the number of steals for your guy is beyond ridiculous considering his age. The best base stealer of all time (Rickey Henderson) never stole 70 after turning 31, and he had 400 OBPs every year in his 30s until he reached 39. Lou Brock went after the record when he was 35, but that's the only season I know of where a guy older than 30 eclipsed 70 stolen bases.

#11727	11/11/2014 5:52:51 am
Meccanodonte Joined: 04/21/2014 Posts: 370 Inactive	Premise: small sample size. In the last 2 series it went as follow: - 3 sb/0 cs (speed: 16, 13, 16) - 1 sb/1 cs (16, 16) - 3 sb/0 cs (17x3) - 4 sb/0 cs (17x4) - 2 sb/0 cs (15x2) My catcher is a lefty and has a 16-arm. - 0 sb/2 cs (17, 14) - 1 sb/0 cs (18) 2 catchers combined: 3G vs a 9-arm, 4G vs a 15-arm. No attempts from me in 5 out of 7 G. I've set green light in the first series (vs 9-arm) and a neutral approach vs. 15-arm. My manager has 4 aggressiveness, their ones have 5 and 2. There surely are many things I didn't evaluate, but it still bothers me.

#11737	11/11/2014 9:17:59 am
dwindacatcher Joined: 04/03/2014 Posts: 633 Inactive	Did you look a t how many people were on first with nobody on second? Because without potential steel chances those stats are not useful.

#11754	11/12/2014 2:38:27 am
Meccanodonte Joined: 04/21/2014 Posts: 370 Inactive	@Dwind: no. I know that I was overlooking some informations. I'm particularly intrigued by basestealing against me. They're killing me.

#11762	11/12/2014 6:32:49 am
dwindacatcher Joined: 04/03/2014 Posts: 633 Inactive	Ah, misread that than. It might be it be because he is left handed. Steve has stated lefties receive penalties behind the plate.

#11764	11/12/2014 8:55:31 am
Meccanodonte Joined: 04/21/2014 Posts: 370 Inactive	It's possibile, but I split time between a lefty (my "regular") and a righty, also with 16-arm.

#11766	11/12/2014 1:29:20 pm
admin Joined: 01/27/2010 Posts: 4985 Administrator	Yes, there is a penalty for LH throwing catchers. Also, the advantage of a catcher with a good arm is as much the number of runners that choose not to run as the number of runners thrown out. Steve

#11769	11/12/2014 3:28:40 pm
newtman Joined: 11/02/2013 Posts: 3343 Inactive	Interestingly, my left handed guy at catcher is doing much better at catching guys stealing than my righty at catcher. The lefty has a 17 arm while the righty has a 16 arm. Small sample sizes for both, but large enough to make me think best arm wins regardless of left or right handed. Of course last time I said something about catchers in the forum, they blew the very next game I played... For those stat obsessed, the numbers are 36.8% (8 of 22 caught) for the lefty versus 12.5% (1 of 8 caught) for the righty. Updated Wednesday, November 12 2014 @ 3:32:06 pm PST