Discussion Forum

Forum >> Discussions >> Mommy, Where Do Ballplayers Come From?  

Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date	Function
#62070	12/18/2018 8:38:45 pm	Oct 28th, 2038	Ignore
hurstdm Joined: 01/18/2017 Posts: 576 Murfreesboro Moo Cows VI.5	I've been curious how everybody acquires their ballplayers. Not the full ~50 guys on the roster, but the guys that do the heavy lifting during the season. Are they mostly a home grown youth product of the draft? Are they mostly acquired through waivers and free agency? Do most successful teams do it a certain "right" way? I don't know. Let's check. Some definitions: Home Grown - A player drafted by the team that keeps the little apple on his page. Young - A player acquired when age 26 or under; typically more prospect than veteran. To learn how successful teams are made, I ran through the 2038 Legends League. Close to the end of this season, I checked the top 11 hitters (by AB) and the top 9 pitchers (by IP). This represented the "core" of each team's playing time and conveniently rounded to a workable number: 20. There are three ways of acquiring a player. He can be (1) Home Grown, (2) acquired through Waivers, or (3) acquired as a Free Agent. I subdivide the Waivers and Free Agency categories into players that are Young when acquired and not Young when acquired. Here's the first family of teams: Battle Creek: 17, 2(1/1), 1(0/1) Kalamazoo: 17, 2(1/1), 1(0/1) Topeka: 17, 3(1/2), 0 Bronx: 15, 4(1/3), 1(0/1) Apologies for the format, but you'll catch on. How do you read this? For example, Battle Creek has 17 Home Grown players out of 20. They acquired 2 "core" players from Waivers. One was Young and one was not Young. The team acquired 1 player as a Free Agent. This player was age 27 or older - not Young. Kalamazoo's notation is exactly the same. Topeka has the same number of Home Grown players, but 1 more player acquired through Waivers (1 Young, 2 not Young) instead of a player through Free Agency. The Bronx has 15 Home Grown players, 4 Waiver players, and 1 not Young Free Agent. This family of teams is characterized by a high number of Home Grown players. The average for Legends was 13. The second family of teams: Broomfield: 10, 10(4/6), 0 Laredo: 10, 9(3/6), 1(1/0) This family is characterized by a lower than average number of Home Grown players, but a high number of players acquired through Waivers that are not Young (both had 6). It's not used, it's pre-owned. The third family has one member: Novi: 10, 10(9/1), 0 Novi only has 10 Home Grown players, but acquired a wild amount of Young talent through Waivers. Are these guys almost Home Grown? What's in the water up in Michigan that made these prospects grow big and strong? The fourth family also has one member: Santa Monica: 14, 0, 6(4/2) The Carp are the only team without a Waiver acquisition and the only team with more than 1 player acquired through Free Agency. Acquiring 4 Legends quality Young players and 2 not Young players through Free Agency sounds daunting. The fifth family is everybody else. This group represents pretty much the league averages: College Station: 13, 7(3/4), 0 Bloomington: 14, 6(4/2), 0 Waterloo: 12, 8(4/4), 0 Alexandria: 12, 8(4/4), 0 Note, Waterloo used this guy, who the Dinos acquired both through Waivers and Free Agency. Thanks for making things difficult. I unapologetically counted him as a Waiver claim. What to learn from this research? I'm not sure. The thing that jumps out to me is that Legends teams seem to use high numbers of Home Grown players. Compare the Moo Cows in 2038: Murfreesboro: 4, 15(1/14), 1(0/1) The Moo Cow farm was mostly barren when I took over in 2035. I think it may take patience over time to have enough quality drafts to start using 12-17 Home Grown players in a lineup. The Cows aren't there yet. We've been patching it together so far with diligent, mostly geriatric Waiver claims. I can't even imagine a Moo Cow team with 17 Home Grown players. Another thing that jumps out at me: Around a third of "core" rosters in Legends are players acquired through Waivers and Free Agency. There's talent out there. Thoughts? Criticisms? Moos?
#62071	12/19/2018 4:03:26 am	Oct 28th, 2038	Ignore
dlwarren1 Joined: 06/21/2017 Posts: 39 Saginaw Crusaders VI.23	very interesting...Here is my roster, currently in a Level 6 playoff series: 5 home, 11 young waiver and 10 veteran pickups. it takes a while to get draft picks worthy, lucky to get 2 a year
#62078	12/19/2018 2:52:20 pm	Oct 30th, 2038	Ignore
Hayseed Joined: 02/20/2018 Posts: 290 Hood River Hawks IV.1	thx, nice info
#62079	12/19/2018 3:54:15 pm	Oct 31st, 2038	Ignore
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9599 Haverhill Halflings III.1	Interesting stats. The rules you used are pretty rough for a team like mine that does so much platooning, because it negates a few guys with 200+ ABs, but here is the breakdown for my team: Haverhill: 8, 11(10/1), 1(1/0) Not too many draft guys A lot of those "young" guys were acquired at 26 years old. I think it makes sense, that if you are able to draft high quality players, you are going to have the type of edge that allows you to succeed in Legends. Like any good game, succeeding in this game requires a combination of both skill and luck. You have to know when to hold'em, know when to fold'em, know when to walk away, and know when to run from players, but you have to get a little lucky to draw the right guys in the first place. If you keep drawing 8 high from the draft pool, you aren't likely to be wildly successful.
#62080	12/19/2018 6:41:53 pm	Nov 1st, 2038	Ignore
AssumedPseudonym Joined: 10/26/2016 Posts: 1130 Deerfield Beach Rats V.7	Just because this should be a fun comparison, I’m going to throw DFB and the ’Gulls up here, too. One minor change to the qualifications on the ’Gulls, I’m substituting the closer for the ninth pitcher. He’s earned that. Also, I’m going to cheat slightly on the waiver-versus-free-agent stats: If a player only had one claim, he counts as a free agent; I’ll note that count in brackets at the end. Deerfield Beach: 9 - 7 (7/0) - 4 (3/1) [1]  I hadn’t realized I had that many core guys on the Rats were were home-grown, honestly. I keep forgetting that I’ve had the team for ten seasons and that there’s been a lot of time for the farm system to mature. (I think I’m even down to just three players I inherited with the Shreveport Dragons I signed up with: My shortstop, part-time second baseman, and closer.) The one veteran free agent on that list was my DH this season. Boca Raton: 0 - 4 (2/2) - 16 (15/1) [5]  The ’Gulls, on the other hand, are no surprise at all. That said, I’ve had them long enough that all all three Veteran pickups on the core squad are pitchers (including the aforementioned closer substitution), as are all four waiver wins. The lineup all come from the free agent market during the first year I took over the team, though some were still in the Minors at that point. (Apparently I still have one player I inherited from the Summerville Octopuses, and he’s currently my resident utility guy.) Updated Wednesday, December 19 2018 @ 7:11:34 pm PST
#62081	12/19/2018 7:55:09 pm	Nov 1st, 2038	Ignore
JJNZ Joined: 12/09/2014 Posts: 1580 Yakima Monster III.3	Somewhat surprised by Missoula results - 5, 15(10/5), 0 Only one hitter I've drafted has turned out worthwhile currently, while 4 of my best pitchers have come from the draft. Great idea Hurst, very impressed with the work you've put into it! On a side note - not surprised at all with Novi, the many years Hasel put into having arguably the best minor's in BB was always going to pay off. Second side note - I've often thought that I was equally bad at drafting as Rock - I now have some evidence! Updated Wednesday, December 19 2018 @ 7:57:35 pm PST
#62082	12/20/2018 12:59:00 am	Nov 1st, 2038	Ignore
MukilteoMike Joined: 08/09/2014 Posts: 3294 Inactive	This might be the most interesting thread of the year. Nice work. My season's top twenty goes 12, 7 and 1. Of those seven waiver successes, there were 2, 3 and 4 claim guys, so they were nearly free agents. Only one of them had more than 10 claims.
#62084	12/20/2018 4:57:38 am	Nov 1st, 2038	Ignore
GullyFoyle Joined: 02/16/2016 Posts: 129 Spokane Wolves IV.5	This might be the most interesting thread of the year. Nice work. Completely agree with this, but also love the title. I have 11 home grown, 6 hitters, 5 pitchers. The rest are all waiver claims. Of the hitters 4 were old and 1 was a prospect. The other pitchers were split equally. 2 old mercenaries and 2 who were young prospects. I'd actually had the 2 young pitchers so long I'd forgotten they weren't drafted by us. One dates back to April 18th 2027, almost three calendar years ago. Only one of the older hitters was a 1 claimer.
#62085	12/20/2018 1:26:45 pm	Nov 1st, 2038	Ignore
allen54chevy Joined: 11/22/2015 Posts: 475 Inactive	Interesting to review my team 10,10 (8/2) 0 Most of the 8 young players were major league ready guys with just a couple being long term projects. Looking at IP I did not feel was the best way to guage contribution as I have a mid season call up that I have been pushing innings on that gets included but my lock-down closer does not make the innings cut. (In my case though it ultimately doesn't change the numbers as they were both minor league waiver claims) Updated Thursday, December 20 2018 @ 1:29:54 pm PST
#62089	12/20/2018 2:18:00 pm	Nov 3rd, 2038	Ignore
Frankebasta Joined: 09/15/2013 Posts: 884 Kodiak Mules III.3	I agree this is a very interesting study. I can only add that Laredo struggled mightily this season. At the start of 2038 the roster was different: more long term players (4 Hall of Famers were enshrined during the season) and less hired hands around. I also agree with another point made: quite a bit of talent is avaiable on the market CF Avalos DH Otero received 2 claims. SP Garrison only 1 (also because of a 35day injury)
#72597	04/06/2020 1:41:36 am	Mar 6th, 2045	Ignore
JJNZ Joined: 12/09/2014 Posts: 1580 Yakima Monster III.3	With the recent bump I thought it'd be interesting to compare. In the 2038 season (where I nearly promoted back to legends) I only had 5 home grown guys and 15 from waivers, in 2045 however........ 10, 10(7,3) 0 - obviously this is only a guess on who I think my 20 highest usage guys will be, but a fairly hefty change - 17 guys I've developed myself, of the 7 young waiver claims, 3 were claimed almost immediately after the draft.
#72599	04/06/2020 8:18:55 am	Mar 6th, 2045	Ignore
PrivateSnowflake Joined: 01/06/2015 Posts: 1166 Bloomington Thunder Legends	^^^interesting, JJ. I think the great draft of '41 skews your numbers a bit, but maybe just by adding 3 or so on the front end. The Thunder's numbers remain pretty much unchanged: 14,6(4,2) and 13,7(4,3) Even more interesting is going back 20 seasons: (2024) 7,13(9,4) I still have roughly the same "older" player signings to fill in the blanks, but you see more younger claims being developed and less reliance on the draft. Back then, going through waivers was a bit like going through manager lists today. You would literally scout players (didn't Hasel or someone have a scouting spreadsheet linked?). Couple that with a smaller user base and you have more clubs built through waivers (guessing, but mostly true imo).
#72600	04/06/2020 9:04:54 am	Mar 6th, 2045	Ignore
hurstdm Joined: 01/18/2017 Posts: 576 Murfreesboro Moo Cows VI.5	Great idea to bump and compare! The Moo Cows in 2038: 4, 15(1/14), 1(0/1) The Moo Cows in 2044: 3, 17(6/11), 0 Same bag of tricks. We barely draft at all anymore. I'd be curious to find other teams with a similar profile. I have a hunch about a few because I feel like I scout their players a lot through waivers.
#72601	04/06/2020 9:54:00 am	Mar 6th, 2045	Ignore
JohnnyBoi62 Joined: 06/21/2019 Posts: 356 Florissant Falcons VI.21	I did it with 2044 stats: NP's: 6 , 5 (4,1) , 0 P's: 1 , 5 (5) , 3 (3) Seems about right, I rebuilt the team with an eye on the future so I've spent most of my time drafting guys <26. Some of the claims were 1 claimers. I've been drafting heavy and expect the home growns to rise, but it takes a little time. I'm also willing to start spending money in FA now so a few older guys trickling in wouldn't surprise me either. My lone FA success story by this criteria is Jose Solis: http://brokenbat.org/player/165300
#72641	04/07/2020 12:40:29 pm	Mar 8th, 2045	Ignore
Hayseed Joined: 02/20/2018 Posts: 290 Hood River Hawks IV.1	@JoihnnyBoi You have done very well with waivers lately (and are breaking my heart). You now got Wang on top of Alfaro (who I particularly wanted) and D Owen. All this after doing so well in the last couple seasons. Pinto alone is a game changer. I imagine you will be climbing the ranks shortly. *hat tip*
#72655	04/07/2020 5:52:34 pm	Mar 10th, 2045	Ignore
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9599 Haverhill Halflings III.1	The only guy I got this off season was a borderline POT 12 prospect who no one else wanted... I don't have high hopes
#72663	04/07/2020 11:06:33 pm	Mar 10th, 2045	Ignore
JohnnyBoi62 Joined: 06/21/2019 Posts: 356 Florissant Falcons VI.21	Thanks Hayseed! And I wasn’t complaining I’m very content with the waiver claims I’ve picked up over the seasons. I meant FA in the true sense of the word, picking up a “free agent” I do think I’m in a tough branch of broken bat overall, but there’s probably always a bias for that. We’ve ticked up to 11 out of 12 active players now too, so have to keep grinding it out.
#72682	04/09/2020 2:32:59 pm	Mar 13th, 2045	Ignore
motko Joined: 09/06/2014 Posts: 358 Nauvoo The Great Horned Owl IV.6	Hurstdm mut be a journalist professional with the clever click bait topics
#79474	12/24/2020 5:27:08 am	Jun 20th, 2048	Ignore
tamale Joined: 02/19/2018 Posts: 357 Concord Jets Legends	I just read the post about the all home-grown challenge, and that's something I'm considering trying in the future to keep my team going with more hands-off management. So I thought I'd take a look at the breakdown of my current ML roster to see how competitive a team like this could be. Just for fun, I'll divide the players into those drafted and those acquired as free agents, sorted by the probability of winning the claim: 100%: Free agent signings and 1-claimers. Nobody else wanted these guys! 20-50%: 2-5 claims, guys with a highish probability of winning the claim. 5-20%: 6-20 claims, potentially under-the-radar waiver claims, but require a lot of luck to get them. 0-5%: 21-756 claims, in-demand lottery tickets with a very low win probability. Pitchers: Draft: 5 - Lara, Beattie, Singletary, Benítez, Simpson 100%: 0 20-50%: 3 - Ramirez (2 claims), Underwood (3), Washburn (3) 5-20%: 4 - Meza (11), Ebert (8), Sohn (12), Richardson (12) 0-5%: 1 - Oshima (41) Hitters: Draft: 8 - Akahoshi, Gallardo, Correa, McNeely, Galli, Slater, Feliciano, Herrera (inherited!) 100%: 3 - Garcia, Harvey, Larkin 20-50%: 4 - Castillo (3), Pagan (2), Yun (5), Arguello (3) 5-20%: 0 0-5%: 2 - Mena (24), Griffiths (27) 13 players drafted and 17 acquired. I've been around for 13 seasons, so it seems that Rock's estimate of 1.25 draftees per season is about right. Looking back over my drafts, there are far more players on other teams than my own, but in my opinion only a small handful are or will be decent major-leaguers, and I don't regret any of the cuts. Overall, my roster is almost exactly half dumb luck (draft and 0-5% waiver lotto tickets), and half small/medium (5-100%) FA claims. By eye both groups have roughly the same value to my team, with each having a similar mix of key performers, bench players, and youngsters. Others can compare my draftees with their own to decide how lucky I've been in the draft - but it's pretty clear that I wouldn't have made it to Legends and the #1 ranking without using both the draft and free agency to their maximum. In the spirit of the OP, I'll also add that of the FAs/waivers only Yun (32yo) and Larkin (33yo) were acquired as ML-ready players. The rest came up through our minor league system, with Castillo (25yo) being the next oldest when acquired. Updated Thursday, December 24 2020 @ 5:50:47 am PST
#79484	12/24/2020 11:25:24 am	Jun 20th, 2048	Ignore
Ken_Kennilworth Joined: 11/26/2019 Posts: 400 Charleston Hawks II.1	@tamale thank you for the analysis...if i can ask a follow-up, are your dumb lucks (drafts & lottery) getting the most plate appearances and innings pitched? and your closing comment about only 2 ready made major leaguers also is illuminating--to compete at top levels one needs to judge potential and be patient one other point---you did a lot of work to get up to Legends! I see you in the forums and on discords most frequently. Indeed, you earned you way, congrats!
#79611	01/04/2021 1:24:14 pm	Aug 2nd, 2048
admin Joined: 01/27/2010 Posts: 4985 Administrator	tamale- Interesting overview. Steve

| |

Reply