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wil_m
Joined: 01/08/2016
Posts: 248

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Broken Bat Baseball
Just speaking from my own experience here . . .

. . . But I have noticed that “very cold” form does seem to provide clues for immediate short term performance.


If a player is very cold sometimes I will change his role for a few games. I will especially do this when facing very good competition. I will replace these cold players with “hot” players. I have actually seen this pay off in game performance. I think that I have won games by going this.

I have clearly and definitely noticed that “very cold” players consistently do very very poorly against good competition. In my experience, unless you are trying to give a “very cold” player some game time experience it is better to move him to another role for a while. I have found this to be a good way to help the player work out of the slump and gradually get back to “average” and “hot” form. And while he is in a less important role he should not cost you so many games.

So I would definitely move very cold relievers to less important roles and move very cold hitters down lower in the lineup. You can also move very cold hitters in and out of the lineup. That way they will have some playing time to work out of the slump while not playing all of the time and reducing your offense.

But right now for me I have so many rookies and young players that I am instead just letting them play while being “cold” and “very cold” in order for them to gain experience.

But normally I like to move players that are very cold around a lot. So I think that this in a GREAT IDEA!

Updated Tuesday, April 25 2017 @ 10:00:58 pm PDT
WizKid
Joined: 06/30/2015
Posts: 33

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@newtman I had the same thought and wouldn't want to mislead anyone. Me personally I do use form sometimes when making lineup decisions - whether its logical or not haha. Moving players up or down the lineup if they are super hot or super cold for example. If nothing else it can be a quick easy way to check on your lineup performance - damn the top of my lineup is ice cold, or wow my bullpen is on fire recently, that kind of stuff
Rock777
Joined: 09/21/2014
Posts: 9568

Haverhill Halflings
III.1

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Hard to tell if it does have an impact on performance, but I also shift guys around based on their recent performance. Sometimes letting a rookie play a series if the regular starter has been doing horrible.
newtman
Joined: 11/02/2013
Posts: 3343

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I do use season stats starting around game #50 of the season to rearrange guys, but the problem is until Steve says that it has an effect all anecdotes about players turning their season around after reshuffling are just anecdotes, because we don't have a way to see if they would have turned things around anyways if the changes had not been made.

@Rock, I worded it that strongly mostly because I have seen a lot of assumptions that form does matter thrown around over the years, and it bothers me that all those assumptions are made without any actual proof. I readily admit that form could play a part, but until Steve confirms it actually matters, I think it is safer to assume that it doesn't lest people start ordering based on form and then complain when they continue to be cold despite being shuffled around.

Updated Wednesday, April 26 2017 @ 5:01:07 pm PDT
Rock777
Joined: 09/21/2014
Posts: 9568

Haverhill Halflings
III.1

Broken Bat Baseball

we don't have a way to see if they would have turned things around anyways if the changes had not been made.



Yeah, this is why we can never tell for sure one way or the other. I just find it to be more fun to assume it does make a difference ;)
Jason2327
Joined: 09/02/2014
Posts: 717

Abilene Patriots
IV.3

Broken Bat Baseball
Myself I have noticed the form does indeed affect upcoming games. A big example is my pitcher Carson De Lucia. Last season he was cold/very the entire year and his stats prove it out. I'm also noticing that players who are very cold for long periods are getting injured more often. I quite often do as the above owner in very important series. I will sub in hot players for cold players and get better results most times,especially pitching wise
Rock777
Joined: 09/21/2014
Posts: 9568

Haverhill Halflings
III.1

Broken Bat Baseball
Well if he had bad stats he would be listed as very cold; I think you are looking at that backwards.
Jason2327
Joined: 09/02/2014
Posts: 717

Abilene Patriots
IV.3

Broken Bat Baseball
Not looking at it backwards at all. His stats last season were horrible and he started cold and went to very cold quickly and stayed there
newtman
Joined: 11/02/2013
Posts: 3343

Inactive

Broken Bat Baseball
^
That is why I worded it the way I did.

You have no way of knowing whether changing a lineup or rotation will be the thing that makes a difference or not, because the game doesn't operate with a control sample. You either make the change or you don't and the guy gets better, stays the same, or gets worse, but no way to establish causation with multiple variables and no way to isolate them from each other. Other possible factors: pitcher, defense, bad luck, poor base running by teammates, weather, etc.
Jason2327
Joined: 09/02/2014
Posts: 717

Abilene Patriots
IV.3

Broken Bat Baseball
I shuffled De Lucia everywhere last season except closer and rhs. Even put him as SS to really limit him. Didn't matter. Everytime he came in,he told the batters "here comes a fastball outside corner low. What? You didn't like that? Here,I'll hang this curveball for you." I almost sent him to the minors for awhile just to keep him from infecting the other guys


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