Broken Bat - Discussion Forum: Stagnating talent

Forum >> Discussions >> Stagnating talent

Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date

#73775	05/22/2020 8:07:52 am	Aug 19th, 2045
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9591 Haverhill Halflings III.1	It amazes me that guys like this get weeded out of the draft and never end up on any team. Its too late for that guys; been out of the game for 2+ seasons. I have had him on my tools page that whole time, but he never quite made it. I wonder how many quality POT 14s are just sitting in FA right now flying under everyone's radar...? Here's another guy who was a tough cut for my team, but no one else touched him. So now we have no idea how good he might have really been. Was he a POT 14 in disguise? Updated Friday, May 22 2020 @ 8:12:19 am PDT

#73782	05/22/2020 8:52:07 am	Aug 19th, 2045
lostraven Joined: 07/02/2016 Posts: 1269 Corvallis Ravens II.1	I admit to being a bit confused by your post. There have always been players who aren't given a chance, as long as I've been playing. I'm guessing over the years I've seen probably close to 100 players who were kind of borderline but could easily end up being something if a team gave them a full chance. But the reality is 1. we have a hard roster limit and 2. there are only so many human players willing to not only hunt down fringy players but also give them a long-term chance. Your first example, Griffin, is super fringy. He has 12 Range, showed little propensity for stealing bases in Amateurs, and has a relatively high GB/FB to go along with the lack of power. He's almost certainly a 12 POT, so with 23 more SI-ish to add, he looks like he'd hit a lot, but not much else. I've seen his likes frequently. Similar with Guerrero. I'm seeing guys like him frequently, but we only have so much roster room for 1B/DH/C types. I already have four 1B/DH in AAA and two C (just recently cut down from three). And 14 POT? Now you're just exaggerating. Sure, maybe a 13, on a lucky day. Yeah, it sucks to see potential go to waste. But these sorts of players not being given a chance? That doesn't bother me. What bothers me more is when players haven't been trained to their optimal positions and then get released. "Yeah, this 25-year-old 15 Range-8 Arm-Below average fielding, Very Good hitting slugger would be an instant waiver claim as a LF, only if he had been trained at OF instead of SS. (REALLY? SS?) Sorry, no room for yet ANOTHER DH." Updated Friday, May 22 2020 @ 8:54:30 am PDT

#73784	05/22/2020 8:55:13 am	Aug 19th, 2045
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9591 Haverhill Halflings III.1	The difference is POT fuzziness. In the new system, these guys may well be POT 14s. I hear people whining about no talent on the draft boards, but then I see guys like this who may well be POT 14s sitting in FA. My tools page is chalk full of guys like this. I was just doing some spring cleaning and pulling some of the long stagnating guys off, so it prompted me to post. BTW, I really like the POT fuzziness. It definitely separates the good managers from the bad. The game has become a bit more skill based and a bit less luck based Updated Friday, May 22 2020 @ 8:59:02 am PDT

#73785	05/22/2020 8:58:47 am	Aug 19th, 2045
lostraven Joined: 07/02/2016 Posts: 1269 Corvallis Ravens II.1	You and I will have to fundamentally disagree on that. By and far, the evidence points to rarely more than one level of POT difference between drafted POT and end-point POT. Which is why I conceded there is a small chance that second catcher type you linked may be a 13 POT on a lucky day, but 14 POT is just way too much wishful thinking. And yes, I like the POT fuzziness too. But I'm not going to get too caught up in wishing for two levels of POT gain (or expecting up to two levels of POT loss). Updated Friday, May 22 2020 @ 8:59:51 am PDT

#73786	05/22/2020 9:00:54 am	Aug 19th, 2045
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9591 Haverhill Halflings III.1	I've seen guys move 2 levels of visible POT. Add in the scouting inaccuracies, and they can be off by even more. Both of these guys have good stats, and had very positive indicators to be over performers.

#73787	05/22/2020 9:09:47 am	Aug 19th, 2045
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9591 Haverhill Halflings III.1	Griffin showed good growth in Hitting, BC, and PD in college. Given his "Great Hitting" comment, we are probably looking at 3 solid hitting tools. His high GB/FB isn't so much of a liability given his low power. In fact a low GB/FB would be more of a liability. Both his stats and his scouting project him to be a very high OBP guy. A great #2 hitter. Perfect defensive build for a corner OF, and a switch hitter to boot. Guerrero showed good power in the Latin league. A nice RF build. Possibly even a 3B if his fielding grew nicely. I cut him primarily because of his poor BC growth because I prioritize BC. But surprised that someone who doesn't prioritize BC didn't pick him up. I'm not arguing that managers like you or me should be picking these guys up. But I see a lot of people whining about there being no talent out there. Those folks could probably benefit from guys like this if they spent a little time looking over FA.

#73802	05/22/2020 3:52:32 pm	Aug 20th, 2045
lostraven Joined: 07/02/2016 Posts: 1269 Corvallis Ravens II.1	I would agree with the premise there is, broadly speaking, talent out there that is largely overlooked that the enterprising and time-rich person can snap up for cheap. Obviously we each have our own methods of identifying talent, and there's room for interpretation. But the gets are there for the getting.