Broken Bat - Discussion Forum: In Depth Question About the Draft and Players in General

Forum >> Discussions >> In Depth Question About the Draft and Players in General

Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date

#71332	02/08/2020 2:43:11 pm	May 7th, 2044
rlawrence Joined: 02/03/2020 Posts: 102 Inactive	So I'm kind of a blossoming addict here, spending way too much time looking through player pages. Anyway, I'd like to give you scenario as a means of understanding more about players and development. Please take a look at this 20 year old FA: http://brokenbat.org/player/233599/U Oscar was created at age 16 in August for the 2040 draft pool. He was picked up in the 2nd round of the 2043 draft. So, a couple of questions. Since it was August of 2040, I take it he wasn't available until the late rounds of 2040 and he was just passed up? Would he then also have been available in 2041 and 2042 but was just passed over by everyone those years as well? During those un-signed years of playing in the minors/overseas/highschool (in his case, the Latin League) is Oscar actually improving? Are stats in the Latin league equivalent to Highschool? Junior College? 2043 was his lucky year. Oscar was drafted in the 2nd round at age 19. He shows a respectable 3.58 ERA in 3+ Latin League seasons. I'd consider taking a chance on that (except his scouting report doesn't really tell us he's going to be great at anything. But I guess it also doesn't say he's going to be bad at anything. I don't know, I'd like a hint that he's going to be fast/curvy/slid-ey. Thoughts on that?) Anyway, Camden gives Oscar one month of training/playing time at the A level in which Oscar pitches 15 innings with a very respectable 2.40 ERA (mind you, the FIP is 3.50). Not a lot of innings, but I'd rather see that than a 5 ERA, lol. So, for whatever reason, Camden then drops this young prospect, and he is never picked up. For the last year, no games, no training with a team. So here's the next question. During this time is Oscar improving at all, or does he need to be on a team? If a player hasn't played for a season or two without training, are they a lost cause, or can they catch up? Thanks for any insight.

#71334	02/08/2020 3:37:05 pm	May 8th, 2044
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9597 Haverhill Halflings III.1	He may have been unavailable, or he may have simply been passed over by teams. He is a POT 12 with no shown skills (CoS never shows), so people might not have considered him to be a good prospect. He certainly performed decently in the Latin Leagues, but it may not translate. The Development Graph is your friend If you select Development Graph from the Statistics/Graph Selection drop down, you can see how much he improved while in the Latin Leagues. No idea if stats are equivalent, since I don't know how they are generated. My guess would be no, as my theory would be that he is playing against other Latin League players. Unfortunately players do not improve when they are dropped. It doesn't make them a lost cause, but Oscar has a long ways to go. He was a risky prospect in the first place (low SI, no tools on scout line, POT 12). It very possible that Oscar is underrated (considering his performance), but people tend to go after sure bets. I wouldn't pick Oscar up, but he could be a borderline prospect on a rebuilding team. Really his only saving grace is his performance thus far, but its hard to tell much from Amateur stats. If he can maintain that level of performance, he could turn into a solid pitcher. Updated Saturday, February 8 2020 @ 3:39:08 pm PST

#71337	02/08/2020 4:49:36 pm	May 9th, 2044
hurstdm Joined: 01/18/2017 Posts: 576 Murfreesboro Moo Cows VI.5	Welcome, blossoming addict!

#71340	02/08/2020 6:31:33 pm	May 10th, 2044
rlawrence Joined: 02/03/2020 Posts: 102 Inactive	"The Development Graph is your friend If you select Development Graph from the Statistics/Graph Selection drop down, you can see how much he improved while in the Latin Leagues." Okay, but how does this work now that skills are 'fuzzy' (which I love, btw). Is the graph trustworthy? I read in one case someone had a huge update with a ton of SI being added to their player in a very short period of time. Is the graph showing the actual development of a player, or just when the system showed the improvement? (ie, a rough gauge) Could a player's actual skills be improving at a different rate? I only ask this because +/- 20% is a pretty huge range, and it seems players showing very similar skills can have very different actual performance numbers. Could we be caring to much about what we see with reported SI when we should be looking more at performance? Updated Saturday, February 8 2020 @ 6:33:26 pm PST

#71342	02/08/2020 7:39:55 pm	May 10th, 2044
Brewnoe Joined: 03/25/2014 Posts: 818 Fall River Naughty Dawgs IV.5	Could we be caring to much about what we see with reported SI when we should be looking more at performance? Could be .. need to make up your own mind. A few to think about: Arturo Tafoyo I drafted him as a 13pot .. I cut him to pick something worse the next week. Picked him back up to see if he liked to run (always go to spring training mgmt and set the draftee to ++ if they have some speed) He popped to 15pot Then he settled on 14 Manuel "The Cat" Félix ... still expecting his pot to drop to 13 Hank "Pays the" Bills ..argument for performance .. killer GB/FB ratio "Old Weird" Harold ... there is a place for every puzzle piece

#71345	02/09/2020 1:07:50 am	May 10th, 2044
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9597 Haverhill Halflings III.1	Ratings improve, and your view sharpens over time. But sharpening happens pretty slowly (and in both directions), so the graphs are generally pretty reliable.

#71352	02/09/2020 11:47:42 am	May 10th, 2044
Seca Joined: 05/05/2014 Posts: 5199 Waterloo Dinosaurs Legends	Could we be caring too much ... Performance is very important. Half my staff are 12 pot guys that were either minor league free agents or low claim waivers. I might have more success with 12 pot P than 13; if so it is because they are vetted closely. Bigger pot guys allow you to hope they will figure it out if they perform poorly. Lower pot guys simply have to perform or they will be replaced. Guys like Oscar are fairly easy to come by. Feel it is in every team's best interest to try to keep a couple of roster spots for projects like Oscar. I signed a new Oscar just last week.

#71356	02/09/2020 3:24:35 pm	May 11th, 2044
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9597 Haverhill Halflings III.1	I agree. When I was first playing, I paid more attention to ratings. Nowadays, I pay more attention to performance, with ratings as a secondary. I never would have picked up a guy like Miranda if I was just looking at ratings. I never would have dropped a guy like Larkin if I was just looking at ratings & POT. A little less then half my pitching staff are POT 12s. As Seca metioned, you can find some real gems down in POT 12. Especially for RP or DH/1B.

#71357	02/09/2020 3:30:27 pm	May 12th, 2044
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9597 Haverhill Halflings III.1	Holt looks really good Seca. Maybe just small sample size and luck, but I did a double take at his 0.0 HR rate.